Lake Effect Snow Belts Discussion Thread

[IWXwx]

 

KBuf is all in on this event. Looks like a possible historic one in the making.

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM ESTTHIS EVENING......LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...AND CATTARAUGUS  COUNTIES. GREATEST AMOUNTS FOR THE ADVISORY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE  SHORE.* TIMING...ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WATCH FROM MONDAY  EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH EARLY THIS  EVENING. SNOW POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING 1 TO 2 FEET OR MORE IN  PERSISTENT BANDS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES THIS EVENING.* IMPACTS...THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OCCASIONAL MODERATE LAKE  EFFECT SNOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR  VISIBILITY AT TIMES. THIS INCLUDES THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY  FROM HAMBURG TO DUNKIRK AND THE 219 FROM ORCHARD PARK TO  SPRINGVILLE. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY  MAKE FOR VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES.

THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA AND

SW NEW YORK…INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ERIE AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU

OF NEW YORK EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL COULD BE SEEING VERY HEAVY

SNOWFALL AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT

INTO TUESDAY.

 

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF WEDNESDAY`S CLIPPER SYSTEM...ANOTHER

SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOR THE

BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK. COUPLED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT

MOISTURE...THIS WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RESULT IN A SECOND ROUND OF

SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS EAST-NORTHEAST AND/OR EAST OF THE LAKES

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LAKE ONTARIO PERHAPS

HAVING THE MORE FAVORABLE SETUP DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

 

 

OT but dude, the wife and I stayed overnight in Hamburg back in August when we went to the Falls. I just realized that's where you live. I just assumed you lived in Buffalo. I'd love to drive out there for a biggie like you're expecting. However, I also like staying married.

[ayuud11]

From WPC

REMARKABLY COLD AIR FOR MID NOVEMBER WILL AGAIN MAKE

HEADLINES…BUT THIS TIME THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE

GREAT LAKES AND SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY LAKE

EFFECT SNOWS. WITH AIR/WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES EXPECTED TO

BE QUITE SIGNIFICANT. DEEP MOISTURE AND HIGH INSTABILITY COMBINED

WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CYCLONIC WIND SHEAR ARE

EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT COULD EXCEED A FOOT OF

SNOW IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKES

SUPERIOR/MICHIGAN/ERIE AND ONTARIO…DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LAKE

EFFECT BANDS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND HOW PERSISTENT THEY ARE. MUCH

OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN…THE WEST COAST OF LOWER

MICHIGAN…THE AREA FROM NORTHEAST OHIO INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA AND

SW NEW YORK…INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ERIE AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU

OF NEW YORK EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALL COULD BE SEEING VERY HEAVY

SNOWFALL AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY

[BuffaloWeather]

OT but dude, the wife and I stayed overnight in Hamburg back in August when we went to the Falls. I just realized that's where you live. I just assumed you lived in Buffalo. I'd love to drive out there for a biggie like you're expecting. However, I also like staying married.

 

Haha yeah, right near exit 57. If this one shapes up to be a biggie by tomorrow evening, you should totally make the trip. We can grab a few beers at a local pub and get stuck there for a few days. My wife is going to be driving with me in it to record some video.

[TugHillMatt]

Lake enhancement laying down 3 inches of fluff here in the past 3 hours and still going.

[Roger Smith]

This will be quite a week of almost non-stop severe lake effect in many parts of Michigan, Ontario and upstate NY. I would not be surprised to see some daily amounts in the 15-25 inch range, the set-up reminds me of Nov 21-22, 1970 which produced severe squalls off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, not familiar with how that one played out in Michigan but no doubt was quite heavy.

 

Wind speeds will be increasing to 35-45 mph at times late Monday and Tuesday, blizzard conditions will develop in the snow belts.

 

And it all reloads on Thursday, so just a case of belts oscillating from W to NW Monday-Tuesday then back to SW around Wednesday, then W to NW again Thursday.

[Harry]

4" is my total so far.. The official number is 6" which i am not sure about as they are only 2-3 miles nw of my location.. ZERO so far tonight and i don't think much of anything is gonna fall either..

 

 

From WPC

 

 

wow..

 

Now to sit and wait for Monday. 

[weatherbo]

Blackrock, maybe you could change the thread from lower MI lake effect, to a general lake effect thread for everyone to post in.  certainly would create more discussion.

Good luck to all in Western Lower, and especially Josh inNW lower around Gaylord, where a foot or more is almost a certain.

EDIT:  just saw where several reports in Emmet County around Conway and Brutus of 16-18"

 

Love this time of year in the Lakes.  Seems round after round of lake snows are on the horizon.  Expecting 8-12" here, but west of here could really get dumped on.

This peaked my interest in the MQT discussion tho:

 

THE STRONG LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. 00Z RUNS LOOK TO HAVE SPED
UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR POPS/SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BE INTERESTING SINCE THE WIND PROFILE
WOULD SUPPORT NORTH WIND LES AT 850MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE
LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO GENERALLY
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT NNW WIND DIRECTION
WOULD SUPPORT THE BANDS GINNING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND
AIDING SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
ALGER COUNTY

 

[Jonger]

Loving the UPs start to the winter.. Might be able to snowmobile from St. Ignace to Copper Harbor on Dec 1st!

 

Never seen that so early.

[josh_4184]

Blackrock, maybe you could change the thread from lower MI lake effect, to a general lake effect thread for everyone to post in.  certainly would create more discussion.

Good luck to all in Western Lower, and especially Josh inNW lower around Gaylord, where a foot or more is almost a certain.

EDIT:  just saw where several reports in Emmet County around Conway and Brutus of 16-18"

 

Love this time of year in the Lakes.  Seems round after round of lake snows are on the horizon.  Expecting 8-12" here, but west of here could really get dumped on.

This peaked my interest in the MQT discussion tho:

 

THE STRONG LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH

THE AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN

UPPER MICHIGAN BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. 00Z RUNS LOOK TO HAVE SPED

UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE CONVERGENT BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE

NORTH CENTRAL AND HAVE FOLLOWED THAT IDEA FOR POPS/SNOWFALL MONDAY

NIGHT. MARQUETTE COUNTY WILL BE INTERESTING SINCE THE WIND PROFILE

WOULD SUPPORT NORTH WIND LES AT 850MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE

LOWER LEVELS ON MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO GENERALLY

NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT BY TUESDAY MORNING. THAT NNW WIND DIRECTION

WOULD SUPPORT THE BANDS GINNING INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND

AIDING SNOWFALL TOTALS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN

ALGER COUNTY

 

1116141.png

I think most LES belts are gonna get a good thumping, NWL could see 12+ easy, I bet some areas push 2' in the more intense bands. Should have a strong connection to Lake Superior by Monday Evening through the night. I kind of wish this would be in early Decenber rather than mid November though.

[TugHillMatt]

I can do that, Bo. Several others have already been posting about lake effect in other locations anyways. I originally started this thread because I didn't want interrupt the flow of other threads...plus, it's fun to talk with others from West Michigan about their conditions. But, it's true...there isn't a numerous amount of West Michiganders on the board. Post away!

 

Harry, how did you guys do in the snow department down in Battle Creek? Is your grass out of sight yet?

[TugHillMatt]

Actually, since I rarely start threads, I can't figure out how to change the title. lol

[weatherbo]

Actually, since I rarely start threads, I can't figure out how to change the title. lol

go into "edit", and then "full editor" I think...

[Harry]

Here we go..

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI247 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014MIZ066-072-073-170400-/O.NEW.KGRR.WS.A.0005.141117T2100Z-141119T0300Z/EATON-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLOTTE...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK247 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTUESDAY EVENING.HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BEGINNING LATE   MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR   IN THE STRONGER BANDS COULD OCCUR * WEST WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25 MPH LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW * FALLING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT * NEAR ZERO WIND CHILLS BY TUESDAY MORNINGIMPACTS... * DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FOR THE MONDAY EVENING   COMMUTE AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WHITEOUT   CONDITIONS AT TIMES. * FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE THE IMPACTS TO THE ROADS * HIGHWAY CLOSURES COULD OCCUR DUE TO MULTIPLE VEHICLE PILEUPS * LOCAL TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THROUGH   MONDAY MORNING DUE TO ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS.

[Indystorm]

I wonder if we'll measure this in feet in the lee of the lakes with the intensity of this next cold surge coming through the area.

[weatherbo]

looks like as the lower peninsula goes, nw lower will take the brunt with the Superior connection the south doesn't have!

 

[josh_4184]

looks like as the lower peninsula goes, nw lower will take the brunt with the Superior connection the south doesn't have!

 

nw lower.png

What I said earlier BO, gotta love the Superior help! Wouldn't be surprised if someone sees some thunder snow.

[ayuud11]

wOw

- Changed Discussion --...MAJOR AND VERY DISRUPTIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT LIKELY EAST AND

NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...

THE STAGE IS SET FOR A MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT STARTING MONDAY

EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. THE

SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE JUST ABOUT OVER BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING...WITH

JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LEFT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL QUICKLY

EXIT. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY LAKE EFFECT TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE

SHORT TERM PERIOD. A MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS LATER TUESDAY

AND TUESDAY EVENING.

FROM A SYNOPTIC STANDPOINT...A MID LEVEL CUTOFF LOW WILL QUICKLY

DEVELOP JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING THEN MOVE EAST

ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RAPIDLY

DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. A STRONG PUSH OF

ARCTIC AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW...MOVING ACROSS THE

OHIO VALLEY AND COMING AT THE LOWER LAKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS

IS A HALLMARK OF A MAJOR SINGLE BAND EVENT. THE POSITION OF THE

850MB CLOSED LOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY

FAVORS A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT OFF BOTH LAKES PER COMPARISON TO OUR

ANALOG CHARTS OF THE PAST 15 YEARS OF LAKE EFFECT EVENTS. BY LATE

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE POSITION OF THE 850MB CLOSED LOW MOVES

FARTHER EAST...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF MORE WESTERLY FLOW PER

THE ANALOG COMPARISON CHARTS. THIS SUGGESTION OF BAND MOVEMENT FROM

THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES MATCHES VERY WELL WITH WHAT MOST MESOSCALE

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING.

THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MATCHES WELL WITH LARGE

ANALOG EVENTS FROM THE PAST. IN ADDITION...THE OVERALL PATTERN

APPEARS TO MATCH WELL TO A LAKE EFFECT EVENT FROM EARLY DECEMBER OF

2009 WHICH PRODUCED VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS

WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OFF BOTH LAKES. IN FACT...THE CIPS

ANALOG PAGE FROM SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY RETURNS THIS DATE AS ONE OF

ITS ANALOGS. EVENTS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPECT FROM THIS EVENT IN THE

PAST HAVE PRODUCED LARGE DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL WITH MAJOR HIGHWAY

CLOSURES...INCLUDING THE NYS THRUWAY AND INTERSTATE 81.

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREME WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE

PEAKING AT AROUND 1400J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 20K FEET.

SUCH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WELL ALIGNED FLOW IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING

INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES WITH 3-5 INCHES PER HOUR A POSSIBILITY AT

TIMES FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. OUR LAKE EFFECT

LIGHTNING NOMOGRAM FROM LOCAL RESEARCH DONE BY RSH ALSO SUGGESTS A

GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND LIGHTNING OFF BOTH LAKES. WINDS WILL

BE STRONG ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH

GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND

DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN AND NEAR THE

BANDS.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING

AND BE FAIRLY WEAK AT FIRST WITH AN INITIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE DRY SLOT

AND DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN

INTENSITY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE DEFINED BAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AS

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE. EXPECT THE BAND TO INITIALLY BE

BROAD FROM THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

SOUTHERN TIER. THE BAND SHOULD THEN FOCUS ON SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING

COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO THE BUFFALO

SOUTHTOWNS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ON TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT THE BAND TO DRIFT RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF

THE BUFFALO METRO AREA WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL

TRENDING A LITTLE NORTH OF PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BAND WILL THEN SIT

OVER THE BUFFALO METRO AREA THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS

WILL CREATE A LULL FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES. BY MID TO

LATE AFTERNOON THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CAUSE

BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO VEER...PUSHING THE LAKE BAND BACK SOUTH

THROUGH THE SOUTHTOWNS. TUESDAY NIGHT FLOW WILL BECOME 260-270

BRIEFLY...WHICH WILL PUSH THE BAND BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS

OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. FINALLY...ON WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY LAYER

FLOW QUICKLY BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST CARRYING LAKE EFFECT SNOW BACK

NORTH ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. BY THIS TIME THE BAND SHOULD BE

IN A WEAKENING PHASE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER.

STRONG WINDS...DEEP INSTABILITY...AND AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW

THIS BAND OF SNOW TO TRAVEL WELL INLAND. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE

INCLUDED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ALLEGANY...LIVINGSTON...AND

MONROE COUNTIES WITH LOCAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE WESTERN

PORTIONS OF THOSE COUNTIES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING

THEN TAKE AWHILE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE BAND. IT SHOULD DO SO

BY TUESDAY MORNING AS SHEAR DECREASES AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE

BAND MAY INITIALLY FOCUS ON THE NORTHERN TUG HILL TO JUST SOUTH AND

EAST OF WATERTOWN MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTH TO WATERTOWN

TUESDAY MORNING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE

PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL

THEN MOVE THE BAND BACK SOUTH AND FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL TUG HILL

TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE THE TIME PERIOD OF

MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE BAND WILL MOVE

BACK NORTH BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH JEFFERSON COUNTY AND

WEAKEN AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES SSW. LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT A

CLIPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW

SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH

SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

BEHIND THE CLIPPER ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP

NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON A SOUTHWEST FLOW...

BUT THE AIRMASS IS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THE FIRST SO INSTABILITY IS

NOT AS STRONG...AT LEAST INITIALLY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

-- Changed Discussion --WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT

APPEARS LIKELY AS A FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES. LAKE INDUCED

INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS THE FIRST EVENT...BUT

STILL SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EAST AND

NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY END ON SATURDAY AS HIGH

PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. TEMPERATURES

WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WAY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

[weatherbo]

What I said earlier BO, gotta love the Superior help! Wouldn't be surprised if someone sees some thunder snow.

well enjoy!  this isn't the perfect setup for me, 8-12" is all I will see.  post a few pics if you can.  I'd love to ride this out in Ellsworth if I could!  I should just settle for my 10" and 30" snow pack

[weatherbo]

enjoy, Josh!  nw lower gets smoked!

 

[josh_4184]

enjoy, Josh!  nw lower gets smoked!

 

IMG_2016.PNG

Wow, that 29" marker is pretty close to my house lol. Probably one of the best/ideal setups for LES for my area that we usually see. Might be taking Tuesday off from work.

[josh_4184]

well enjoy!  this isn't the perfect setup for me, 8-12" is all I will see.  post a few pics if you can.  I'd love to ride this out in Ellsworth if I could!  I should just settle for my 10" and 30" snow pack

LOL, like your comment on NWS APX facebook page. Just pitiful what you have to witness with only a 40" snowpack after Wednesday, dont know what your gonna do bo .

[weatherbo]

LOL, like your comment on NWS APX facebook page. Just pitiful what you have to witness with only a 40" snowpack after Wednesday, dont know what your gonna do bo .

well ****!

[BuffaloWeather]

Buffalo NWS really going all in on this event. Looks like an historic one with the lake completely wide open.

 

From Mr. Tom Niziol from TWC:

 

OK Geeks, here is an update with today's 12z GFS.

 

This is the 12z GFS BUFKIT data. BUFKIT was orginally developed to allow operational forecasters to evaluate the atmosphere at point locations on an hourly basis. It is an excellent tool for convection as well as lake-effect snow. It was also developed before high resolution numerical modelling was available in the mainstream. So we developed a number of tools to help us evaluate the instability over the lakes (lake-induced CAPE and EL) and wind direction. Below you will see the GFS 12z run for Buffalo, NY. The top image shows the lake-induced CAPE (white and left y-axis) and EL (yellow and right y-axis). The bottom image shows the average wind direction from about 950mb through 700mb. The blue horizontal bar denotes a range of wind directions (~245-255 degrees) that line a band up over parts of metro Buffalo.

 

The first image helps us to evaluate instability, the second shows where snow bands could set up. Buffalo looks like it will get its fair share of lake effect. Most will likely fall just south of the city as usual. Off Lake Ontario a similar scenario will play out. Of course, the Upper Great lakes will also get their fair share. I would watch SW Lower Michigan, I think they will get hammered !!

 

 

 

This is just through Weds at 1pm, more significant LES follows this. I live in the Bullseye!

 

[Harry]

Buffalo NWS really going all in on this event. Looks like an historic one with the lake completely wide open.

 

From Mr. Tom Niziol from TWC:

 

OK Geeks, here is an update with today's 12z GFS.

 

This is the 12z GFS BUFKIT data. BUFKIT was orginally developed to allow operational forecasters to evaluate the atmosphere at point locations on an hourly basis. It is an excellent tool for convection as well as lake-effect snow. It was also developed before high resolution numerical modelling was available in the mainstream. So we developed a number of tools to help us evaluate the instability over the lakes (lake-induced CAPE and EL) and wind direction. Below you will see the GFS 12z run for Buffalo, NY. The top image shows the lake-induced CAPE (white and left y-axis) and EL (yellow and right y-axis). The bottom image shows the average wind direction from about 950mb through 700mb. The blue horizontal bar denotes a range of wind directions (~245-255 degrees) that line a band up over parts of metro Buffalo.

 

The first image helps us to evaluate instability, the second shows where snow bands could set up. Buffalo looks like it will get its fair share of lake effect. Most will likely fall just south of the city as usual. Off Lake Ontario a similar scenario will play out. Of course, the Upper Great lakes will also get their fair share. I would watch SW Lower Michigan, I think they will get hammered !!

 

 

 

This is just through Weds at 1pm, more significant LES follows this. I live in the Bullseye!

 

 

 

Shades of late Dec 2001?

 

That was one of the rare events to dump well over a foot of LES here.

[dmc76]

Shades of late Dec 2001?

That was one of the rare events to dump well over a foot of LES here.

I believe 80"+ fell around Petoskey?

[BuffaloWeather]

Shades of late Dec 2001?

 

That was one of the rare events to dump well over a foot of LES here.

 

We received 82 inches of snow in 5 days in that event. (My sigs pictures was from the 2001 event) I don't think we will have anything near that. But wouldn't be surprised to see some 4 foot totals by Friday somewhere in WNY. Montague in the tug had 127 inches in 5 days from that event.

[dmc76]

Northern lower has been getting hammered all night. Some big totals I bet around the straights tonight.

[BuffaloWeather]

Look at these water temps. Going to be incredible rates within this band. Bet 4+ inches an hour. The average lake temp off of Buffalo harbor is 48 degrees still.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/laketemps/laketemps.php

 

[Harry]

I believe 80"+ fell around Petoskey?

 

Bloomingdale ( Van Buren ) got 60" from it.

 

 

We received 82 inches of snow in 5 days in that event. (My sigs pictures was from the 2001 event) I don't think we will have anything near that. But wouldn't be surprised to see some 4 foot totals by Friday somewhere in WNY. Montague in the tug had 127 inches in 5 days from that event.

 

 

Total here for that week was 29.1" Most of it ( 16" )  fell on the 27-29th..

[Chicago WX]

Bloomingdale ( Van Buren ) got 60" from it.

 

Total here for that week was 29.1" Most of it ( 16" )  fell on the 27-29th..

 

What's the biggest LES event you've personally witnessed in Battle Creek?