Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Let's talk Winter!


Steve

Recommended Posts

More general cold stats.

 

1. The -11 from this morning tied for the 10th coldest low ever recorded in any month.

2. The -11 tied for the coldest temp ever recorded after the 15th of February, but there was one a bit later, -11 on 2/27/1963.

3. Through yesterday, the monthly mean had fallen to 20.4, which is 11.4 degrees below normal.  If the month ended today, it would be the 4th coldest February on record, and the 12th coldest of any month.  As it stands, it is the 10th coldest period of 2/1-2/23. 

4. There have been 3 (and possibly 4 after the next few days) highs this month where highs failed to surpass 10 degrees.  This ties for the 2nd highest total of highs meeting that criteria.

5. There have been, through this morning, 7 lows that were 0 or below.  This currently ties for 3rd place for the most. 

6. The winter mean through yesterday has fallen to 28.1 (December 1-February 23).  This is 3 full degrees below the seasonal average and is the 30th coldest winter up to this point.  Even with the warm December, this is actually 0.1 degrees colder than last winter.  With the rest of the month looking fairly cold, the winter will likely move into the top 25.

7. It is highly likely at this point that February ends as the 2nd coldest on record, with a mean somewhere between 18 and 19 degrees, only warmer than 1978.

8. Finally, 2-3 winters in a row featuring lows at double-digits below zero is rare.  This occurred in 1983-1985, 1962-1965, 1950-1952 and 1883-1886.  And now 2013-2015.

 

I have not heard "polar vortex" mentioned a single time this winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

More general cold stats.

 

1. The -11 from this morning tied for the 10th coldest low ever recorded in any month.

2. The -11 tied for the coldest temp ever recorded after the 15th of February, but there was one a bit later, -11 on 2/27/1963.

3. Through yesterday, the monthly mean had fallen to 20.4, which is 11.4 degrees below normal.  If the month ended today, it would be the 4th coldest February on record, and the 12th coldest of any month.  As it stands, it is the 10th coldest period of 2/1-2/23. 

4. There have been 3 (and possibly 4 after the next few days) highs this month where highs failed to surpass 10 degrees.  This ties for the 2nd highest total of highs meeting that criteria.

5. There have been, through this morning, 7 lows that were 0 or below.  This currently ties for 3rd place for the most. 

6. The winter mean through yesterday has fallen to 28.1 (December 1-February 23).  This is 3 full degrees below the seasonal average and is the 30th coldest winter up to this point.  Even with the warm December, this is actually 0.1 degrees colder than last winter.  With the rest of the month looking fairly cold, the winter will likely move into the top 25.

7. Finally, it is highly likely at this point that February ends as the 2nd coldest on record, with a mean somewhere between 18 and 19 degrees, only warmer than 1978.

Good stuff. Thx JB!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone enjoying the balmy 25° today. Unreal. 25 feels like 50. On another note anyone look at the GFS today ;)

 

looking at it closer, that first wave with the gfs is mostly rain believe it or not...I know on the maps it looks like snow though.  After that the follow up storm is like an inch of rain.    Basically a cold run with heaviest precip being liquid.

 

in fairness, these modeled rain events have all turned out to be snow or fringed south as they get closer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

nice work JB, I have to tell you I'm surprised that this FEB is only at #4 for coldest so far.   It's just seemed so severe and relentless.

 

The first half of the month wasn't all that cold, so you have to consider that the cold has been pretty intense the last few weeks to get us where we are now.  I didn't check, but it'll likely be near the top coldest 2nd half ever.  1978 warmed up a bit at this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

More general cold stats.

 

1. The -11 from this morning tied for the 10th coldest low ever recorded in any month.

2. The -11 tied for the coldest temp ever recorded after the 15th of February, but there was one a bit later, -11 on 2/27/1963.

3. Through yesterday, the monthly mean had fallen to 20.4, which is 11.4 degrees below normal.  If the month ended today, it would be the 4th coldest February on record, and the 12th coldest of any month.  As it stands, it is the 10th coldest period of 2/1-2/23. 

4. There have been 3 (and possibly 4 after the next few days) highs this month where highs failed to surpass 10 degrees.  This ties for the 2nd highest total of highs meeting that criteria.

5. There have been, through this morning, 7 lows that were 0 or below.  This currently ties for 3rd place for the most. 

6. The winter mean through yesterday has fallen to 28.1 (December 1-February 23).  This is 3 full degrees below the seasonal average and is the 30th coldest winter up to this point.  Even with the warm December, this is actually 0.1 degrees colder than last winter.  With the rest of the month looking fairly cold, the winter will likely move into the top 25.

7. It is highly likely at this point that February ends as the 2nd coldest on record, with a mean somewhere between 18 and 19 degrees, only warmer than 1978.

8. Finally, 2-3 winters in a row featuring lows at double-digits below zero is rare.  This occurred in 1983-1985, 1962-1965, 1950-1952 and 1883-1886.  And now 2013-2015.

 

I have not heard "polar vortex" mentioned a single time this winter.

Thanks for the stats!  Good point on no polar vortex mentions...Some of these have just been ideal radiational cooling nights with snow on the ground.  We seemed to lack significant snow cover on most of the "polar vortex" nights last year.  What I find even more impressive is that CMH hit -11 last night only after 850s got down to a "mere" -18C during the day (actually warming to -12 overnight) when this type of cold took -28C only a week or so ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Update from this morning, a friend had -17 a mile west of my house, unfortunately my thermometer/transmitter ran out of batteries two weeks ago and I kept procrastinating and missed crazy cold. East of Troy multiple car thermometers were showing -20. I know at least two were different car brands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sunday into Monday I will take. The 3-4th might need a boat.

 

I'm still not convinced both events are going to be that far north....  one bully of an HP coming in and the infamous positively tilted trough combined with energy that refuses to consolidate and strengthen out of the sw.   Maybe this will be the phaser...finally.  I do think we have a monster somewhere on the schedule in front of us, not necessarily snow for us, but probably an intense cutter in the next couple weeks.  Hopefully it breaks the back of this pattern. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still not convinced both events are going to be that far north.... one bully of an HP coming in and the infamous positively tilted trough combined with energy that refuses to consolidate and strengthen out of the sw. Maybe this will be the phaser...finally. I do think we have a monster somewhere on the schedule in front of us, not necessarily snow for us, but probably an intense cutter in the next couple weeks. Hopefully it breaks the back of this pattern.

An there it is. On the Euro. Bullseye. Back to Back lol. 2nd wave gives us over a foot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models look like they want to have another storm ride up the front right after the 3-4 storm bringing snow to some of us.

Saw the same thing down here on the over the air weather station via WCPO--- next Thursday, going back to cold and snow...next week looks like a real mess. I am sure I can get myself psyched for some form of winter event....but I have been feeling satisfied after last week thru the weekend combined with the cold.....been there, done that. The desire is to transition to the spring events.... the kid in me loves the winter....come spring, my curiosity changes to awe and fear- particularly with the lingering battle of the cold and warmth...we could be ground zero this year.  :huh:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hmmm,

so the 12z nam has .68 qpf for the CMH/I-70 corridor....looking at soundings at all levels it would be all snow.   2m temps briefly warm to around 33 degrees so probably closer to 1:10 (at best) ratios.

 

the nam's colder solution for last weekends storm ended up beating the gfs's warmer solution.   Starting to get interesting.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hmmm,

so the 12z nam has .68 qpf for the CMH/I-70 corridor....looking at soundings at all levels it would be all snow.   2m temps briefly warm to around 33 degrees so probably closer to 1:10 (at best) ratios.

 

the nam's colder solution for last weekends storm ended up beating the gfs's warmer solution.   Starting to get interesting.

Thanks Buck. It looked colder to me but wasn't sure. NAM kicked butt last weekend so we'll see. Also, didn't you say the "new" GFS had a warm bias?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks Buck. It looked colder to me but wasn't sure. NAM kicked butt last weekend so we'll see. Also, didn't you say the "new" GFS had a warm bias?

 

I've heard that somewhere.    This situation is deja vous all over again.   This is the rgem at 48.   The 5h map looks just like last weekend.  Severely positively tilted trough, no real semblance of an organized low, we are in the midst of a very cold period, lots of snow cover to the south....granted we have sw winds, (like last weekend), but I have trouble understanding how warm air wins out very far north in this set up.   I still wouldn't be surprised to see it nudge south some more.  

 

Then again I have a day job so my explanation might be total BS :lol:

post-622-0-19798300-1425050932_thumb.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've heard that somewhere. This situation is deja vous all over again. This is the rgem at 48. The 5h map looks just like last weekend. Severely positively tilted trough, no real semblance of an organized low, we are in the midst of a very cold period, lots of snow cover to the south....granted we have sw winds, (like last weekend), but I have trouble understanding how warm air wins out very far north in this set up. I still wouldn't be surprised to see it nudge south some more.

Then again I have a day job so my explanation might be total BS :lol:

It really is déjà vous all over...the whole week leading up to it! The only diff is that the air is not as cold maybe going into it. My hunch is that this one will not produce the same amount of moisture & warm air will make its way up this way, to what extent we'll see. Also, no two "events" are ever identical.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...