1234snow Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 The Para GFS was beefier with the precip shield than the GFS but was warmer as a result. The original GFS was a very good run. The snow was further northwest on the Parallel version. 0z GFS: 0z Parallel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 The models are having a tough time with this sytem and are all over the place.Just an example the Euro is throwing out the QPF'S for BNA 1.15" from last night run,the GFS 0Z ,23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Good post. We still live in the South! Can't help but think this is going to be rain for the valley areas south of 40. Maybe a bit of snow at the tail end. Need to see cold HP just a little further south to keep warm air from getting trapped in the valley. I like the Upper Plateau and definitely the Apps. With a cold front plowing through, and associated CAA, it is hard to see quality snow at lower elevations. Too warm ahead of the wave. EDIT: Second wave won't have moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Good post. We still live in the South! I like the Upper Plateau and definitely the Apps. With a cold front plowing through, and associated CAA, it is hard to see quality snow at lower elevations. Too warm ahead of the wave. But the models are showing two waves?Correct me if i'm wrong with colder air behind the first wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 850's are much warmer on the GFS,swing and a miss for everyone except towards the NW Valley.GFSP still gives some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 850's are much warmer on the GFS,swing and a miss for everyone except towards the NW Valley.GFSP still gives some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Layers.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2014 Author Share Posted November 12, 2014 Euro looks about like the GFS showing the heaviest sn in the western highland rim parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Unless models drastically change I don't think E TN will have a good chance of snow in the valleys beyond a few flakes within the next 10 days. The next decent storm looks more and more like it'll follow a line just south or just north of the Ohio river. Then after that, a brief warmup looks inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 There will be other threats to follow within the next 15 days, I firmly believe that. I'll take my token tail end flakes from this one and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Things could change, but snow in the valley seems unlikely at this point: THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THE NEXT BOUT OF ARCTIC AIRARRIVES AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELYRESULT IN MORNING HIGH TEMPS AS COLD AIR POURS IN THROUGH THE DAY.AS EVERYONE KNOWS...THINGS CAN CHANGE BUT SNOW POTENTIAL IS LOOKINGLESS LIKELY...IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.DUE TO THE TROUGH SLOWING DOWN...IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE COLDAIR TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. SO AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LATE SUNDAYNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AREAS ALONG THE PLATEAU AND NORTH OFKNOXVILLE COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF TIME. THEN...SNOWQUICKLY CHANGES BACK OVER TO RAIN LATER MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDERAIR DOESN`T GET IN UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAINBACK TO SNOW MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT BY THIS TIME MOST OFTHE MOISTURE IS OFF TO OUR EAST THUS THE LESS LIKELY CHANCES FOR ANYACCUMULATIONS. MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS WHEN ALL AREASCOULD SEE SNOW SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LITTLE TO NOACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TUESDAY ANDBEYOND LOOKS COLD AND DRY. Still, we'll have plenty of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 It is November. Climo wins the battle in most cases. Too many variables for folks below 2,000' until early December, possibly late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 https://twitter.com/NWSMemphis/status/532865335280418817?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=eastwx&utm_content=532872290204385280Earliest recorded measurable snowfall at KMEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 13, 2014 Author Share Posted November 13, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/photos/a.358160627547332.99358.356106867752708/943063635723692/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The band that gave Memphis a little snow has been working east across the state. Flurries looks possible in Knoxville soon but not much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Looks like Thanksgiving week on the 12z Euro is going to featuer +NAO, zonal flow across the lower 48, and generally above normal temps. I remember Hurricane Sandy...and how we thought that it was the beginning of a great winter. I sometimes think that when the pattern brings heavy snow to the mtns in November, that it is a harbinger of a less than snowy winter. However, it does look like the beginning of December will be generally warm. Honestly, it seems this cold snap is not a "flip" in the pattern, but is more like an intrusion of cold air during the warm pattern of fall. Like I said, I will believe it when I see it...Not trying to be negative. The long term just doesn't look cold to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Looks like Thanksgiving week on the 12z Euro is going to featuer +NAO, zonal flow across the lower 48, and generally above normal temps to above normal temps. I remember Hurricane Sandy...and how we thought that it was the beginning of a great winter. I sometimes think that when the pattern brings heavy snow to the mtns in November, that it is a harbinger of a less than snowy winter. However, it does look like the beginning of December will be generally warm. Honestly, it seems this cold snap is not a "flip" in the pattern, but is more like an intrusion of cold air during the warm pattern of fall. Like I said, I will believe it when I see it...Not trying to be negative. The long term just doesn't look cold to me. I know it's long range but that storm a couple days before turkey day,100 kt wind shear coming through the Valley,looks like a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Much better run,i got sn cover liq .38 for BNA Edit:so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Looks like Thanksgiving week on the 12z Euro is going to featuer +NAO, zonal flow across the lower 48, and generally above normal temps. I remember Hurricane Sandy...and how we thought that it was the beginning of a great winter. I sometimes think that when the pattern brings heavy snow to the mtns in November, that it is a harbinger of a less than snowy winter. However, it does look like the beginning of December will be generally warm. Honestly, it seems this cold snap is not a "flip" in the pattern, but is more like an intrusion of cold air during the warm pattern of fall. Like I said, I will believe it when I see it...Not trying to be negative. The long term just doesn't look cold to me. What more do you want ?? Possible record cold next Monday and Tuesday? It's mid November . I don't feel like anyone expects a cold stable pattern to lock in the early....... You don't consider a -AO that's in the tank an east based -NAO and a cross polar flow for two weeks a cold pattern , but an intrusion??? Ok........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 What more do you want ?? Possible record cold next Monday and Tuesday? It's mid November . I don't feel like anyone expects a cold stable pattern to lock in the early....... You don't consider a -AO that's in the tank an east based -NAO and a cross polar flow for two weeks a cold pattern , but an intrusion??? Ok........ Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 What more do you want ?? Possible record cold next Monday and Tuesday? It's mid November . I don't feel like anyone expects a cold stable pattern to lock in the early....... You don't consider a -AO that's in the tank an east based -NAO and a cross polar flow for two weeks a cold pattern , but an intrusion??? Ok........ Talking long term...not short term. I think the hype with this cold is a bit overblown. Flurries and cold in November are not rare here. Again, long term looks zonal and warm - above average. Easy, chief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 .CLIMATE...THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE AT NASHVILLE FOR NEXT TUESDAY IS 32DEGREES...WHICH IS ALMOST 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH IT ISNOT UNCOMMON TO SEE A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE 30S AT NASHVILLEDURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER...IT USUALLY ENDS UP BEING IN THEMIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. A HIGH TEMPERATURE THAT FAILS TO GET ABOVEFREEZING IN NOVEMBER, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS INDEED RARE. THE LASTTIME SUCH A THING OCCURRED AT NASHVILLE WAS BACK ON NOVEMBER 26,1977...WHEN THE HIGH AT NASHVILLE WAS 29 DEGREES. THE YEAR BEFORETHAT, ON NOVEMBER 29, 1976...THE HIGH WAS ONLY 26. THE MOST RECENTNOVEMBER THAT HAD A SIMILARLY COLD TEMPERATURE TO WHAT IS FORECASTFOR NEXT TUESDAYS WAS BACK IN 2000, WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ON THESAME DATE, NOVEMBER 18TH, WAS 34 DEGREES. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OHX&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Talking long term...not short term. I think the hype with this cold is a bit overblown. Flurries and cold in November are not rare here. Again, long term looks zonal and warm - above average. Easy, chief. Well said....The Euro weeklies back up some normal to above into early December but then this is not necessarily unusual for El Nino winters. Decembers can be above before Jan Feb declines. My supposition this winter is that we will have periods like this where the SER brings some warmer temps as has been the case since late summer...but as with this week, there will be decent shots of cold air this winter...on the balance near normal or slightly above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Median and Mode may be slight above. Days like today could drive the Mean slight below. I consider myself with the bears Carver and Bob but I lean slightly cooler than normal. Still, like them, I'm a skeptic on another brutal winter. In the South being bearish is usually rewarded. Bottom line: Valleys have a better chance of strong thunderstorms than accumulating 1"+ snow Thanksgiving week through the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 14, 2014 Author Share Posted November 14, 2014 Median and Mode may be slight above. Days like today could drive the Mean slight below. I consider myself with the bears Carver and Bob but I lean slightly cooler than normal. Still, like them, I'm a skeptic on another brutal winter. In the South being bearish is usually rewarded. Bottom line: Valleys have a better chance of strong thunderstorms than accumulating 1"+ snow Thanksgiving week through the 11-15 day. Yeah,it's looking rather moist towards t-giving thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Talking long term...not short term. I think the hype with this cold is a bit overblown. Flurries and cold in November are not rare here. Again, long term looks zonal and warm - above average. Easy, chief.Record cold in November ( next week) is rare and obviously we are gonna have a period of warmth , it's the southeast not Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Well said....The Euro weeklies back up some normal to above into early December but then this is not necessarily unusual for El Nino winters. Decembers can be above before Jan Feb declines. My supposition this winter is that we will have periods like this where the SER brings some warmer temps as has been the case since late summer...but as with this week, there will be decent shots of cold air this winter...on the balance near normal or slightly above... The same weeklies that completely missed the cold for the first part of November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 The same weeklies that completely missed the cold for the first part of November? Models are wrong! How about some more reasoning rather than just one liners? Euro ens have a strong Pac jet driving into the west coast in the 11-15 day period.....you are not going to get any cold air into the lower 48 until that pattern switches up so perhaps the weeklies have some logic behind them right now....not to mention that would be more following the ENSO climo going into December..I am inclined to give them some credence...how about you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Models are wrong! How about some more reasoning rather than just one liners? Euro ens have a strong Pac jet driving into the west coast in the 11-15 day period.....you are not going to get any cold air into the lower 48 until that pattern switches up so perhaps the weeklies have some logic behind them right now....not to mention that would be more following the ENSO climo going into December..I am inclined to give them some credence...how about you? Seriously every wx board I've visited has had this cold addicts vs. warm argument with the cold followers throwing out the weeklies seemingly only because they don't show cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 14, 2014 Share Posted November 14, 2014 Models are wrong! How about some more reasoning rather than just one liners? Euro ens have a strong Pac jet driving into the west coast in the 11-15 day period.....you are not going to get any cold air into the lower 48 until that pattern switches up so perhaps the weeklies have some logic behind them right now....not to mention that would be more following the ENSO climo going into December..I am inclined to give them some credence...how about you? Sir, thats all the reasoning I need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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