IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Do you have a good link to the ensembles? I use StormVista which I can't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Do you have a good link to the ensembles? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014092412/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 HRRR is almost in range now. Rain moves in between 6-7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014092412/ Thanks. This one feels like it's going to go down to the wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014092412/that map is a pretty good approximation of my current thoughts on precip amounts/distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Almost time to start watching the HRRR. The 13z run compares closest to the 4k NAM. You don't want to watch the HRRR until at least 6pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Wall of water approaching from the south http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=DOX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 euro is a soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 euro is a soaker barely... pulls east at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 barely... pulls east at the last minute Nice bullseye near ACY then weakens and shifts out across LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 it pretty much matches the gfs. looks like .75" for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 it pretty much matches the gfs. looks like .75" for nycWhy is it killing the convection like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Nice bullseye near ACY then weakens and shifts out across LI. dramatic cutback to our SW near dc compared to 0z. low confidence forecast at the mercy of convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Why is it killing the convection like that? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim8ir.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Why is it killing the convection like that? It is leaving a less favorable thermal environment + the low starts occluding. The precip shield will continue evolving and new convection will appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 barely... pulls east at the last minute Reminds me of February 10th 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 You can already tell that the Euro is going to be wrong. It has all of VA well under an inch and dopplar estimates there are already close to 0.75" with moderate rain falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Big blow convection off Carolina coast. Models may struggle with this. Correct me if I'm wrong, depending on how robust this convection is, couldn't this drag the center of the low to the east? As well as the subsequent precip? May be something to consider depending on how well the models do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Barometer still at 30.55" after mine peaked an hour ago at 30.56". Normal diurnal change bet. 10am-4pm is about -.08" in NYC. I think with a low approaching it would be collapsing during current time frame by much more than that. Will wait and see. ....54" as I write. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 The surface ridging building down west of the low track north of Philly to the Lower Hudson Valley looks responsible for the heaviest rain staying closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Is it just me, or are the models been regressing the past couple of years as far as forecasting precipitation amounts with these events. You would think with model upgrades, we wouldn't have so much mayhem. Does not bode well with winter approaching. I foresee lots of weenie suicides and last minute celebrations in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxwell03 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Precip moving into southern Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 15z SREF now has 1.25"+ for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is wetter than the op again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Early on the 18z NAM is a good bit west of it's 12z run with the heaviest rains overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Everything is focused towards the DC area this run which makes perfect sense given the current radar presentation down in VA. 12z had a narrow band extending from the DC metro off towards Ocean City, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 On this run the immediate I-95 corridor could find itself in a bit of a dry slot between two areas of heavy convection. That's assuming we don't get an actual commahead to form. If that happens then this becomes an all out deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Going to be a miserable rainy day tomorrow no matter how you slice the cake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 24, 2014 Share Posted September 24, 2014 Personally, I remain skeptical about the NAM's return to a qpf bullseye in south central PA. The intense convection off the North Carolina coast is being understated on the NAM's simulated radar. Perhaps that's part of the reason the NAM seems to be developing what I suspect will prove to be a spurious qpf bullseye. More importantly, the ECMWF, GFS, and RGEM all lacked such a pronounced feature. To illustrate my thinking, my guesses concerning storm total precipitation would be along the lines of: 0.25"-0.50" (local amounts to 0.75"): Harrisburg, Morristown, Poughkeepsie, Providence 0.50"-1.00" (local amounts to 1.25"): Bridgeport, New York City, Newark, White Plains 1.00"-2.00" (local amounts to 2.50"): Atlantic City, Islip, Philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 24, 2014 Author Share Posted September 24, 2014 Decent shift NW this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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