IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Pretty bullish for them. They seem to have ignored the 12z GFS.. probably wise. The 12z GEFS mean was slower than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Pretty bullish for them. They seem to have ignored the 12z GFS.. probably wise. I'm sure they have been posted somewhere but does the Euro tend to beat out the GFS in setups like this? Given that it's a big anomaly at H5 I have to assume maybe the Euro has a leg up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I'm sure they have been posted somewhere but does the Euro tend to beat out the GFS in setups like this? Given that it's a big anomaly at H5 I have to assume maybe the Euro has a leg up? I dunno.. in the winter I think people said the GFS was doing better than the Euro with northern stream stuff. But I don't think that necessarily carries over. The evolution of the 12z GFS seemed wonky either way though it has trended weaker with the 500 low overall run to run it seems. Plus sometimes the Euro is overamped.. hard to say I guess. Euro is steady more or less though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 I dunno.. in the winter I think people said the GFS was doing better than the Euro with northern stream stuff. But I don't think that necessarily carries over. The evolution of the 12z GFS seemed wonky either way though it has trended weaker with the 500 low overall run to run it seems. Plus sometimes the Euro is overamped.. hard to say I guess. Euro is steady more or less though. 12z CIPS analogs print out 07/27/1994 as the number 1 match lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 12z CIPS analogs print out 07/27/1994 as the number 1 match lol. ha nice. 6z match tho.. close enough esp since it's too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 12z CIPS analogs print out 07/27/1994 as the number 1 match lol. I am searching the CIPS... what happened that day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 I am searching the CIPS... what happened that day? Regions largest tornado outbreak occurred on Jul 27, 1994 - lots of tornadoes - a few on the strong side. Mainly east of metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I am searching the CIPS... what happened that day? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/tornadoes/JUL27-94.htm http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/tornado/1994/7/27/map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Regions largest tornado outbreak occurred on Jul 27, 1994 - lots of tornadoes - a few on the strong side. Mainly east of metro area. Maryland's at least.. Ivan was bigger regionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 ha nice. 6z match tho.. close enough esp since it's too fast. I think CIPS might have something wrong or I'm missing some aspect of the site - a few times now when I see tor reports in the analogs they don't show up in the SPC storm report archives or vice versa. I'm sure it's probably an issue in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I am searching the CIPS... what happened that day? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/Historic_Events/tornadoes/JUL27-94.htm edit - ninja'd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 Maryland's at least.. Ivan was bigger regionally. I always forget Ivan - I think it's because it was tropical in origin. For some reason those are segregated in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 11, 2014 Author Share Posted July 11, 2014 I didn't realize Ivan brought the TORs here. Bigger than that '94 outbreak in number or just geographic scope? Also, how unbelievable that the region had a three year run that produced TORs with low topped storms. Almost impossible to see. There were a bunch of tornadoes during Ivan. Most I believe were pretty weak, though (as is usually the case with tropical remnants). EDIT: a bunch of F2's and an F3 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/sept17tornadoes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Kathryn Prociv and I broke Ivan down last yr too http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/09/17/hurricane-ivan-and-virginias-largest-tornado-outbreak-september-17-2004/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 I always forget Ivan - I think it's because it was tropical in origin. For some reason those are segregated in my mind. Pretty big part of our overall tor climatology. One of the highest density areas for tropical remnant tornadoes too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 18z GFS even worse than 12z for Tues, but Mon looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 Got a lot of cape in this setup. Even the euro doesn't seem to be showing very much directional shear and winds near the surface are kind of weak for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 11, 2014 Share Posted July 11, 2014 The 500 mb trough alone on Tuesday that is being shown by the 12z Euro is enough to raise my eyebrows, looks more like a May system to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 The 500 mb trough alone on Tuesday that is being shown by the 12z Euro is enough to raise my eyebrows, looks more like a May system to be honest.GFS pretty far off from Euro now. Would probably want to see it come back at 0z to have any faith in Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 GFS does seem faster than pretty much everything else. But the euro is maybe too slow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 GFS does seem faster than pretty much everything else. But the euro is maybe too slow as well. Meet in the middle maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 This storm risk next week, is it associated with an unusual outbreak of cold air? Someone mentioned that today. Is it true that we are going to see an unusual cold outbreak or is it just hype? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 This storm risk next week, is it associated with an unusual outbreak of cold air? Someone mentioned that today. Is it true that we are going to see an unusual cold outbreak or is it just hype? somebody told me today at my shop that there is a crazy cold snap never seen in years coming, I asked what he meant. his description was like a summer winter storm. confused then I thought about it I asked high winds dry and 90 degrees? he said major cold (70* that feel like 50* major wind and rain). so I asked a hurricane? and he walked away. I think the weather channel is getting to people. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 GFS pretty far off from Euro now. Would probably want to see it come back at 0z to have any faith in Tuesday. WPC tossed it in their most recent diagnostic discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Going from this warm soupiness to highs 78-82 is going to extract a price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 NAM looks like it's closer to the Euro than the GFS.. cold front back in OH at 12z on Tue with a shortwave rounding the low.. probably a quality setup for the day. It looks mighty interesting late Monday too around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Oy GFS. Toss it.. crap model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Oy GFS. Toss it.. crap model. Maybe it will lead the way Let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 12, 2014 Author Share Posted July 12, 2014 Where does the GFS begin to make that different look - is it just faster/flatter or do the changes show up early on in the run vs the euro/nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 12, 2014 Share Posted July 12, 2014 Not sure it's worth looking that hard at the goofus. It may score a coup.. it did well with polar vortices in the winter. Then again the Canadian looks like the Euro so eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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