hm8 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 From Patrick Marsh's Twitter yesterday... Satellite supercell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Here is a GIF of the radar loop for the Humboldt loop-de-loop. Amazing. I'm definitely saving this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm shocked there's been no mention of this here yet... 000NOUS43 KOAX 181128PNSOAXIAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-182330-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE628 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014...PRELIMINARY NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/16/14 TORNADO EVENTUPDATE 1....STANTON TORNADO...RATING: AT LEAST EF-3PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 12.09 MILESSTART DATE: JUNE 16 2014START LOCATION: 6.75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STANTONEND DATE: JUNE 16 2014END LOCATION: 10.50 MILES EAST OF NORFOLK.PILGER TORNADO...RATING: AT LEAST EF-4PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 19.30 MILESMILES START DATE: JUNE 16 2014START LOCATION: 5.75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PILGEREND DATE: JUNE 16 2014END LOCATION: 8.40 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PENDER.PILGER EAST TORNADO...RATING: AT LEAST EF-4PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 11.60 MILESMILES START DATE: JUNE 16 2014START LOCATION: 2.20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PILGEREND DATE: JUNE 16 2014END LOCATION: 9.20 MILES NORTHEAST OF PILGER.WAKEFIELD TORNADO...RATING: AT LEAST EF-4PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 12.76 MILESSTART DATE: JUNE 16 2014START LOCATION: 7.50 MILES WEST OF PENDEREND DATE: JUNE 16 2014END LOCATION: 6.60 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAKEFIELDEF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THEFOLLOWING CATEGORIES.EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPHEF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPHEF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPHEF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPHEF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPHEF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPHNOTE:THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWSSTORM DATA.$SMITH/ZAPOTOCNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Most violents in a day/year for NE http://www.ustornadoes.com/2014/06/18/nebraska-is-no-stranger-to-tornadoes-especially-in-june/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The 12z sounding and recent mesoanalysis show an already strongly unstable air-mass with some impressive parameters once again over Nebraska and Iowa. The 12z Omaha sounding had an effective STP of 4.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawkers Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 It's amazing how the exact same area has gotten slammed two days in a row, and quite possibly three basing off of the SPC SWOD1 Tornado Probs... %10 for SE SD/NE NEB/ NW IA. Wouldn't be too surprised to see significant-severe added to tornado probs in later outlooks just like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yday was a huge day for chasing.. three seperate areas of pure gold. Roger Hill at it again. https://www.facebook.com/243903418956520/photos/a.243917255621803.77405.243903418956520/852524608094395/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Here's a quick video of the beginning portion at least of the cyclic supercell/tornado about 3 miles north of Laurel, NE last night. I had to re-position myself due to hail a few times. By the time I got closer, it was rain-wrapped and getting dark, so that's why the footage is cut a bit short. Beyond that point, it turned into a multi-vortex wall cloud, with some of the funnels not reaching the ground. By that time it was fairly dark, so there's really a lack of compelling footage to share. A small segment of nighttime footage: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yday was a huge day for chasing.. three seperate areas of pure gold. Roger Hill at it again. https://www.facebook.com/243903418956520/photos/a.243917255621803.77405.243903418956520/852524608094395/?type=1&theater Agreed. Can't remember the last time there were three truly jaw-dropping tornadic storms spread out over such a wide area and a dryline wasn't involved. You couldn't lose if you played. June 16-17, 2014 will be remembered as one of the ultimate two-day stretches in storm chasing. It'll really be something if today manages to augment it. Given initiation in the Siouxland area, the parameters today certainly don't rule out something of a similar caliber to yesterday. Anvil-level flow is the only real weakness I'm seeing, but it's not much weaker than yesterday. Extreme instability FTW. Congrats again, Quincy. Doesn't get much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Spc moved the tor risk North out of NE... Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 This year is kinda like the last couple. The overall tornado numbers are lacking but there's been a number of high profile/high quality occurrences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Ahh sorry, figured you got yesterday too. Even so... Monday an excellent prize. perhaps I'll shift my hate to Quincy. I was mainly waiting for the season to totally suck though had an inkling June might have something up its sleeve. Now to see if more chasecationers switch to June and get death ridged next year heh. Wild few days regardless even other than the most talked about tors. Honestly good to see those who are out all year finally get something decent. Prob more rough for Plains guys who were working or gave up on 2014 so didn't go out. There are some definite advantages to chasing in June. Generally slower storm motion being one of them. More storms in the High Plains and away from the S. KS/OK/N. TX chaser congestion being another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Were there any models that performed well yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 A progged sup composite of 28 later on today in southeast SD via RAP mesoanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 A progged sup composite of 28 later on today in southeast SD via RAP mesoanalysis Is that all? 60 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yday was a huge day for chasing.. three seperate areas of pure gold. Roger Hill at it again. https://www.facebook.com/243903418956520/photos/a.243917255621803.77405.243903418956520/852524608094395/?type=1&theater That is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Is that all? 60 or bust. Yeah, I'm not chasing <60 again after Monday. I'm still trying to comprehend what I saw that day. At least an EF-3 and three EF-4's with two of those on the ground at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm shocked there's been no mention of this here yet... I'm gonna drop a guaranteed EF4+ rating on the Coleridge tornado assuming it hit anything able to be classified as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm gonna drop a guaranteed EF4+ rating on the Coleridge tornado assuming it hit anything able to be classified as such. Weren't we seeing EF-5 velocities on the radar last night? I know this doesn't directly equate to an EF rating, but I'm sure there's some correlation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Thanks Brett. After a tough first trip and two lackluster trips, the persistence is paying off. Looking forward to one more potentially big day. My focus is on southeastern SD, perhaps extending into far northwest IA and/or southwest MN. The front is lifting north and we've already seen good moisture transport paired with backing winds into the area. The HRRR has been back and forth since overnight (MN to IA and now near the intersection of the four states), but near term trends along with the last 16z run would indicate to me at least that SD is the way to go. As has been the case for the past few days, throw a discrete cell (or even a small cluster) into such an environment and things could really blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Weren't we seeing EF-5 velocities on the radar last night? I know this doesn't directly equate to an EF rating, but I'm sure there's some correlation... Generally when you see velocities that intense (maxed out ~221 kts GTG), you have a violent tornado on your hands, in addition to visual evidence. It's one of the strongest delta-v sigs I've ever seen, up there with Tuscaloosa, the Greensburg tornadoes from 2007 and 2008 and both of the El Reno tornadoes (2011 and 2013). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EricHaley Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Generally when you see velocities that intense (maxed out ~221 kts GTG), you have a violent tornado on your hands, in addition to visual evidence. 221 kts == 254 mph... Yikes!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 221 kts == 254 mph... Yikes!! Remember though, that's a 254 mph differential between outbound and inbound, equating to 127 mph +/- storm motion ground relative speed. It's still quite impressive, given the large scan volume of the WSR-88D for anything that isn't in the immediate vicinity of the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 There are some definite advantages to chasing in June. Generally slower storm motion being one of them. More storms in the High Plains and away from the S. KS/OK/N. TX chaser congestion being another. Yeah, though it's also been hit or miss lately. In general June seems more like a locals month than May.. though probably really last two weeks of May into first two of June that's best for coming from afar. Of course if June meant storms for sure and no OK it would definitely be tops. Can't argue against extreme instability when it doesn't cap bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Bit of an MCD fail here. Also...here we go again. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0113 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL ND INTO CENTRAL SDCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELYVALID 181813Z - 181945ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...STORMS/SEVERE RISK EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSSTHE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH A TORNADO WATCH LIKELY REQUIRED WITHINTHE NEXT HOUR OR SO.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE AHEATING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ATTM...NEAR AND EOF AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NNWWD FROM A LOW ANALYZED NEAR THESD/NEB BORDER JUST NE OF ANW. ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF THETROUGH/N OF THE LOW BENEATH MODERATE SWLYS AT MID LEVELS IS YIELDINGSHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...WHICH COMBINED WITHONGOING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED RAMP-UP INSEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGEHAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLSALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. AS SUCH...TORNADOWATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE HOUR...GOSS/MEAD.. 06/18/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Weren't we seeing EF-5 velocities on the radar last night? I know this doesn't directly equate to an EF rating, but I'm sure there's some correlation... Also keep in mind that both radars were scanning pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That discussion actually sounds pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 That discussion actually sounds pretty meh. Except it's not, the discussion before yesterday's watch was very similar...and then the environment did the rest. Today we have backed southeasterly surface winds across most of the eastern half of SD with upper 60s/70s dewpoints, I wouldn't be surprised if a trifecta is achieved today despite rather weak upper level flow (which should get a bit stronger through the afternoon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Model cancer is malignant. Andy is correct. SPC has been behind ever since hi-res guidance tanked two weeks ago. Either that, or per the proofreading error, they are just not engaged. Today will be a tornado day, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Model cancer is malignant. Andy is correct. SPC has been behind ever since hi-res guidance started to tank last week. Either that, or per the proofreading error, they are just not engaged. Today will be a tornado day, period. They did the best they could given that the past two days were heavily mesoscale driven, and the PDS watch on Monday was perfectly placed. I agree that the models have been quite crappy with this whole thing, doing a poor job of depicting the strength and location of the storms. My bigger question is for the WFOs to the east in WI who let at least two significant tornadoes go basically unwarned as they caused damage (TDS was evident in both cases) in one of the most heavily populated areas in the state (Greater Madison). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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