IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Do some of these " genius`s " a favor and remind them how many helicopter plucks you had to make during Sandy . It`s mindless that some of these guys root this stuff on here . Thankfully this was a WHIFF . This was never going to be a Sandy. Stop comparing every land falling east coast storm to that anomaly. If you can't appreciate a good tropical storm as a weather enthusiast then idk what else to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Do some of these " genius`s " a favor and remind them how many helicopter plucks you had to make during Sandy . It`s mindless that some of these guys root this stuff on here . Thankfully this was a WHIFF . Yes Sandy was by no means any picnic. Yes this should be a whiff, however I will say we are waiting to assist OBX as necessary. The main concern is the potential for RI and for people to be caught off guard as this is very early in the season and has not been talked about much in the media until the past 12 hours or so. There have already been standby's and reports of vessels in distress in the OBX area. People who have family down there please tell them to follow what local officials tell them and to make all necessary preparations to protect life and property. Hurricanes, even minimal, are exceedingly dangerous ; especially on the water. Lastly to surfers.. Please please please do not underestimate this. Rip currents and waves are very powerful and this will be no different this go around. We will come to get you, but it does not mean we will be able to save you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 NOAA plane finds 91kt flight level wind and 81kt SFMR wind. Dropsonde also reported 103kt wind at 925mb. 70kt at the surface. 8am advisory has 80mph wind, pressure 983mb. That dropsonde also reported at 95kt winds at 976mb. And even stronger winds further up: Significant Wind Levels... Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 987mb (Surface) 115° (from the ESE) 71 knots (82 mph) 976mb 125° (from the SE) 95 knots (109 mph) 969mb 130° (from the SE) 87 knots (100 mph) 960mb 135° (from the SE) 109 knots (125 mph) 945mb 140° (from the SE) 104 knots (120 mph) 932mb 145° (from the SE) 107 knots (123 mph) 915mb 145° (from the SE) 100 knots (115 mph) 911mb 150° (from the SSE) 103 knots (119 mph) 906mb 155° (from the SSE) 113 knots (130 mph) 890mb 160° (from the SSE) 99 knots (114 mph) 865mb 160° (from the SSE) 91 knots (105 mph) 856mb 160° (from the SSE) 73 knots (84 mph) 850mb 160° (from the SSE) 78 knots (90 mph) 753mb 170° (from the S) 60 knots (69 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yes Sandy was by no means any picnic. Yes this should be a whiff, however I will say we are waiting to assist OBX as necessary. The main concern is the potential for RI and for people to be caught off guard as this is very early in the season and has not been talked about much in the media until the past 12 hours or so. There have already been standby's and reports of vessels in distress in the OBX area. People who have family down there please tell them to follow what local officials tell them and to make all necessary preparations to protect life and property. Hurricanes, even minimal, are exceedingly dangerous ; especially on the water. Lastly to surfers.. Please please please do not underestimate this. Rip currents and waves are very powerful and this will be no different this go around. We will come to get you, but it does not mean we will be able to save you.A direct hit here would be no worse than Irene. There are a ton of unique circumstances that made Sandy what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Do some of these " genius`s " a favor and remind them how many helicopter plucks you had to make during Sandy . It`s mindless that some of these guys root this stuff on here . Thankfully this was a WHIFF . this is simply your opinion. I think the tune would be different if a category 3 hurricane was set to make landfall on top of NYC, which it is not. Its a TS thats going to maybe graze coastal areas if they are lucky. I dont think its "mindless" to root for that when that is about the worst case scenario for this particular storm. Sandy was an incredibly anomalous storm, every potential threat the east coast faces now cannot be compared to Sandy, or the impacts that Sandy had. It is not a 1-1 comparison for many reasons. The models have come west some, slightly, but it at least keeps things a bit interesting. Calling this a whiff as if no impacts could be felt is simply not true. At the very least surf will be kicked up for one of the biggest water sport and swim weekends of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 this is simply your opinion. I think the tune would be different if a category 3 hurricane was set to make landfall on top of NYC, which it is not. Its a TS thats going to maybe graze coastal areas if they are lucky. I dont think its "mindless" to root for that when that is about the worst case scenario for this particular storm. Sandy was an incredibly anomalous storm, every potential threat the east coast faces now cannot be compared to Sandy, or the impacts that Sandy had. Everybody likes different types of weather, it is what it is. The models have come west some, slightly, but it at least keeps things a bit interesting. Calling this a whiff as if no impacts could be felt is simply not true Exactly, nobody is rooting for a Sandy. We're rooting for 50MPH winds and torrential rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Not the member that I was rooting for. It's the only one that shows a direct impact from the core. Openly rooting for direct impact ? You`re inability to comprehend what that means, insults me . If others feel its not mindless to root for a possible hit by a CAT 1 Hurricane then I just disagree . It is lost on a few of you that Hurricane`s KILL people , they are not just plots on computer model or something that happens far away from here . To root in an area where people died just 16 months ago is ignorant . And yes that's MY opinion . I don`t know how any weather enthusiast can square that circle . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 1 this is simply your opinion. I think the tune would be different if a category 3 hurricane was set to make landfall on top of NYC, which it is not. Its a TS thats going to maybe graze coastal areas if they are lucky. I dont think its "mindless" to root for that when that is about the worst case scenario for this particular storm. Sandy was an incredibly anomalous storm, every potential threat the east coast faces now cannot be compared to Sandy, or the impacts that Sandy had. It is not a 1-1 comparison for many reasons. The models have come west some, slightly, but it at least keeps things a bit interesting 2 . Calling this a whiff as if no impacts could be felt is simply not true. At the very least surf will be kicked up for one of the biggest water sport and swim weekends of the year 1 . Yes 2 . Been saying this since Monday . ( as well as rip currrents ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Can you guys take this groundhog day argument somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Openly rooting for direct impact ? You`re inability to comprehend what that means, insults me . If others feel its not mindless to root for a possible hit by a CAT 1 Hurricane then I just disagree . It is lost on a few of you that Hurricane`s KILL people , they are not just plots on computer model or something that happens far away from here . To root in an area where people died just 16 months ago is ignorant . And yes that's MY opinion . I don`t know how any weather enthusiast can square that circle . Who cares? You make it sound as if rooting or not rooting for something increases the odds or decreases the odds of the outcome. This is a weather board, we enjoy extreme weather. If you don't like it, don't read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Arthur could be a cat 5 right now and I wouldn't at all be worried. NJ/NY will be on the west side and for the core to come onshore it will have had to pass over hundreds of miles of land. No left hook here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 We now return to our program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The worst case for us would be if the center passes through Pamlico sound and we get scraped a little by the left side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Happy to see it bend right . The Euro ensembles had this track on Monday and stayed put all week . It did a great job . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Happy to see it bend right . The Euro ensembles had this track on Monday and stayed put all week . It did a great job .The Euro remains a southeastern outlier. It will be interesting to see what the models show at 12z. Looks like the early guidance has shifted west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Happy to see it bend right . The Euro ensembles had this track on Monday and stayed put all week . It did a great job . I still think it goes 150 or 200 miles SE of Montauk, well away from giving us any severe impacts. The hurricane models never really bought into some of the closer tracks advertised by the global models so I was never really concerned for anything more than minor nuisance impacts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Happy to see it bend right . The Euro ensembles had this track on Monday and stayed put all week . It did a great job . Euro op and ensembles handle this well. Especially strength-wise. All the other models played catchup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Headed down to Norfolk tonight. Expecting tropical storm conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 I still think it goes 150 or 200 miles SE of Montauk, well away from giving us any severe impacts. The hurricane models never really bought into some of the closer tracks advertised by the global models so I was never really concerned for anything more than minor nuisance impacts here. Agree our effects this week were always Gona b the thunderstorms in advance of this moving SE of the BM Then rough surf and rip currents all weekend. Should get some good storms today and we can thank Arthur for it's southerly humid air it provided us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z hurricane models look tightly clustered at the benchmark. with a slight leak to the west. One model takes the center west of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 3, 2014 Author Share Posted July 3, 2014 12z hurricane models look tightly clustered at the benchmark. with a slight leak to the west. One model takes the center west of Philly. lol - west of philly ? now if that verified and came up the chessapeake thats another nightmare track for south jersey and the del marva - BUT clearly this is a storm that will be near a benchmark track .... only question here is how bad will it be down at the beaches on July 4th especially showers , storms and rough surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Big shift west on the 09z SREF's after going east at 03z. Some concern growing for the outer banks and southeast VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The storm still looks quite ragged on the W and SW sides-lots of dry air still making it to the core and breaking up the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The storm still looks quite ragged on the W and SW sides-lots of dry air still making it to the core and breaking up the eyewall.Didn't the same thing happen with irene in the same area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Didn't the same thing happen with irene in the same area? Dry air is often a problem with storms that parallel the east coast, and it was definitely an issue with Irene as well. It eroded pretty much the entire southern half of the storm away. As soon as the eye hit Coney Island, it was just about over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Big shift west on the 09z SREF's after going east at 03z. Some concern growing for the outer banks and southeast VA. It's ONE run. Means nothing really at this point unless it becomes consistent. Another thing I don't see being mentioned is sea surface temps. Nothing within 90 miles of the coast is warm enough to sustain the current strength. And with deep water mixing taking place temps close to shore will not go any higher. I agree w PB to a point. It's different rooting for a Nor' Easter to hit vs a TS/Hurricane. Far more people out and about, especially on a holiday weekend. I will be happy standing on the beach with my 5DII in hand and listening to the surf. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Big shift west on the 09z SREF's after going east at 03z. Some concern growing for the outer banks and southeast VA.You're about an hour drive from VA beach, you should drive down there early tomorrow morning if you want to experience some tropical storm force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 You're about an hour drive from VA beach, you should drive down there early tomorrow morning if you want to experience some tropical storm force winds.Headed to Norfolk tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It's ONE run. Means nothing really at this point unless it becomes consistent. Another thing I don't see being mentioned is sea surface temps. Nothing within 90 miles of the coast is warm enough to sustain the current strength. And with deep water mixing taking place temps close to shore will not go any higher. I agree w PB to a point. It's different rooting for a Nor' Easter to hit vs a TS/Hurricane. Far more people out and about, especially on a holiday weekend. I will be happy standing on the beach with my 5DII in hand and listening to the surf. Sent from my iPhone The Gulf Stream runs up the east side of FL, GA, and SC. The water temps don't really drop off until you're north of Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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