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famartin

Vendor forecast thread

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13 hours ago, RedSky said:

I hate March yuck

 

A winter fan Dec-Jan-until Valentines day mid Feb then the nuclear sun angle takes over

 

 

 

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We are two of a kind.....that is my exact 'winter' time frame as well. Anything after VD is usually wet slop and melts relatively quickly. Not like those mid January storms that accumulate on roads to where Penndot is still salting and pushing piles around still for 3-4 days after the storm. 

Make that 3. That's my time period as well. Around the 2nd-3rd of Feb is usually my cut off line then you have to hope for overnight snow. Sure, you "can" get snow during the day after that but it's usually slop which melts on the road as soon as the intensity lets up. You would need perfect conditions for a daytime storm. (temps in the 20's, low dense clouds and snow intensity)

Overall, I've given up and would cash my Winter chips in now for a much below normal (temps) Spring and a below normal Summer. This Winter has been boring torture and not the least bit fun.

 

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We are two of a kind.....that is my exact 'winter' time frame as well. Anything after VD is usually wet slop and melts relatively quickly. Not like those mid January storms that accumulate on roads to where Penndot is still salting and pushing piles around still for 3-4 days after the storm. 

We like our snow and ice with the better winter sun angle basically. I also could have added any snow I can get in fall particularly around Thanksgiving, you get geared up for winter since frost so the first event even if the ground is still too warm is good. Had all systems go with close to 1" before Thanksgiving last November then...

It seems like nature has to balance things out to get to near average with the current decade 2011-2020 running significantly above normal for snowfall.

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^^^^ per my previous post, Larry C speaks clearly about upcoming potential as did C Tynan on a live webcast I just viewed....

i also need to say what a nice job channel 6 does with their weather spots in providing some longer range analysis (particularly in comparison to the increased dribble that channel 10 provides with little more than discussing countless temperature ranges, and now rarely shows their 10 day extended)!

I know other weather enthusiasts here and elsewhere agree and I post this with hopes that both outlets will "see" it and continue/adjust there coverage as the case may be! 

 

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14 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

^^^^ per my previous post, Larry C speaks clearly about upcoming potential as did C Tynan on a live webcast I just viewed....

i also need to say what a nice job channel 6 does with their weather spots in providing some longer range analysis (particularly in comparison to the increased dribble that channel 10 provides with little more than discussing countless temperature ranges, and now rarely shows their 10 day extended)!

I know other weather enthusiasts here and elsewhere agree and I post this with hopes that both outlets will "see" it and continue/adjust there coverage as the case may be! 

 

I watch the 11pm the other night and all Glenn showed was the 3 day forecast? I never know when they'll show the 10 day? Seems to change day-day? It's like they want viewers to keep viewing/guessing when the 10 day will show up? (ratings) Ch6 is so much more professional (maybe that's why they're always #1) I almost had it w/Glenn/NBC 10... 

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No idea why winter outlooks are a thing. No one ever has a clue. No one is ever going to call for a monstrous winter nor an extremely bleak winter. You mostly just see average or slightly above/below. Seems like it's just an unnecessary thing to predict honestly.

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Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season.

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23 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

I watch the 11pm the other night and all Glenn showed was the 3 day forecast? I never know when they'll show the 10 day? Seems to change day-day? It's like they want viewers to keep viewing/guessing when the 10 day will show up? (ratings) Ch6 is so much more professional (maybe that's why they're always #1) I almost had it w/Glenn/NBC 10... 

I can't imagine Glenn being all that inspired in that setup - he has a lot more to offer.

 

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32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season.

I hate to say it, but the cold pattern coming barely deserves to be called cold. Looks to be a few degrees below normal at best, unless I'm missing something. Yuk.

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From JB at WB

"The folly of putting the cart before the horse with individual storms is standing out most pronounced on the European. I have no changes in my ideas on this being a big snow and ice event from the central plains into the northeast and the idea a center tries to get up in the Ohio valley with a secondary that cuts all the warming. The European has gone from as warm is it could be 4 days ago to a suppressed look that given what I see makes little sense with itself as this kind of trough is likely to capture the southern storm. One thing it is not. is a warm system in the midwest and northeast. It was never that to me, even if a center does cut up because there was going to be so much cold air in the way, it would ice and snow in many places. Of course now the worry is too far to the south, but I am confident on my answer in between. But I use storms in the longer term to make points about what I think is going on. The GFS was abysmal on the clipper Tuesday. After all these years, the same problem it was jumping on the front running short so much it lowered pressures too far north. The heaviest snow at 20 to 1 ratios will be near and north of the 528 thk. Plot your thickness and in the midwest and northeast, if your average thk is 525 start to finish of a 6 hour period of snow, ( start snowing at 522 and rise to 528) you should be in the sweet spot for the 20 to 1. And the system Monday morning will be a pain from DC to ACY, most likely coating to 2s. But again that clipper is coming down with a nice warm front that will force some pretty impressive overrunning

But all this is a sign that the ideas have merit. I tweeted out this am that I dont believe it will rain again here in central PA till march 14. I tried to pull that back in 2009 at IAD , saying in late Jan I dont think they would get any rain in Feb, it would be all snow or frozen. IAD did have .25 inches of rain but the rest was all snow. Now that is not to say that a nasty blizzard will hit New England. It is saying, given this is an ensemble, that some of the key markers for an extreme are being hinted at by the model. But the real point is the pattern for the next couple of week has turned the way we thought it would, and even out at day 16, I just dont think that looks bad for what we have been saying going forward. Perhaps love is blind, and I still love what I am seeing.

But whatever you do if you are a snow lover in the midwest and now the northeast.. dont put the cart before the horse. For if its backyard snow you are interested in, many of you will not have to wait till what is now day 8"

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21 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season.

Larry is great and I'm very anxious to read his updated thoughts but Haven't seen his Saturday updates posted to google groups yet. 

It seems there is still a lot of snow potential (some small some bigger) over the next several weeks!!!

I'm feeling very good about at least up to midFebruary!! 

 

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On 1/27/2017 at 7:31 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just read Larry Cosgrove's newsletter. Paraphrasing, he states the cold pattern beginning tomorrow will be short-lived and transient replaced with near normal temps by early next week. Mentions zero threats for wintry weather on the horizon. He is locked in for a mild pattern evolving in 10 days with cold bottled up over AK with Canada/USA mild as a whole. He says he isnt sure how long the mild pattern lasts but there is no getting around the return to mild as the pattern continues to be MJO driven. Hate to say it but he's been fairly spot-on this season.

 

4 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

Larry is great and I'm very anxious to read his updated thoughts but Haven't seen his Saturday updates posted to google groups yet. 

It seems there is still a lot of snow potential (some small some bigger) over the next several weeks!!!

I'm feeling very good about at least up to midFebruary!! 

 

Not sure what you read Ralph but, As I suspected...his latest thoughts sound pretty optimistic for us!!

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/MzsJ1WZu4qU

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/oSecNhtPNOE

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4 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

 

Not sure what you read Ralph but, As I suspected...his latest thoughts sound pretty optimistic for us!!

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/MzsJ1WZu4qU

https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/weatheramerica/oSecNhtPNOE

He obviously saw the new trends past 24 hours. His posts on FB especially have been borderline trolling a mild pattern emerging. Glad he's on board finally!

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

He obviously saw the new trends past 24 hours. His posts on FB especially have been borderline trolling a mild pattern emerging. Glad he's on board finally!

Gotcha....he did allude to that in his latest newsletter, he is primarily a synopstician and I'm sure the models have been befuddling him   (along with the rest of us)!!!

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4 hours ago, RedSky said:

Let's hope the ECM comes in something like the Canadian. The scales have tilted too far now for a southern system.

 

Euro has solid HP dominating where others have some sort of storm. 

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Canadian said super torch for March in the NE again today. Canadian called it last year too nearer to March. We haven't had a wet March where I live since 2007, so I'm begging you people, talk to your weather gods: let New Mexico have our March trough back. We like snow in March out here, it's our best snow pack month. Last March was particularly infuriating with the snow in Guadalajara/Jalisco, the blizzard in Denver and not even a drop of rain here.

 

2015-16 Canadian Trended Warm in March.png

2016-17 Canadian Trended Cold in March.png

Dry March Decade in New Mexico.png

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Umm ... tomorrow night at 11:00, Ch 6 is issuing it's February Winter Outlook. Isn't winter about half over, and by tomorrow night, about 25% of Feb will be in the books?? Wonder if they'll go with BN temps and AN snowfall?? :blink:

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5 hours ago, snowwors2 said:

My biggest question is why the hell isn't Chris Sauers on 6 more often... he offers more analysis than any other tv met I've ever seen and is clearly under utilized!!! Channel 10 needs him really badly at this point!!

Because he was hired as the weekend Met.

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2 hours ago, MGorse said:

Because he was hired as the weekend Met.

Can't they promote him since many people approve unless he has a solid weekday gig? (probably so) Maybe him at 4pm and 5pm and Cecily at 6pm 11pm. Or he just ship to a different station? He seems comfortable in his current role though...who knows?

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9 hours ago, Birds~69 said:

Can't they promote him since many people approve unless he has a solid weekday gig? (probably so) Maybe him at 4pm and 5pm and Cecily at 6pm 11pm. Or he just ship to a different station? He seems comfortable in his current role though...who knows?

Not sure since I do not work there. I was just stating that he is probably not on the air much because he is their weekend Met.

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24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Hey Philly folks - is there anywhere to get archived forecasts (and snowmaps) from the various Philly TV stations for this past storm?  Were they predicting 6-8" for Philly?  I know the NWS was estimating 4-6" for Philly, so just curious.  Thanks.  

 

I posted the snowmaps (screenshots) from the majority of the local TV outlets somewhere in the "Feb 8-9th Storm discussion" thread....I'm pretty sure that was the thread? If not, one of the other threads from this past storm.

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