IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Before that, the 0z Euro has widespread 70s on Saturday, with west winds and 850mb temps around 9C. Yes but after that the pattern will flip to wet and unsettled as a cut off low slowly traverses the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Yes but after that the pattern will flip to wet and unsettled as a cut off low slowly traverses the east coast. It looks like a cool and wet period on the way after a warm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 The low here this morning was 30. FOK down to 23. The old adage about not setting out sensitive plants until May 15 is still a decent guideline. There is definitely more room to take a little risk earlier these days, but we've also have mid-May frosts on several occasions over the past couple of decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Lows... NYC 41LGA 41JFK 37TEB 38EWR 37LDJ 39HPN 33CDW 33FRG 34MMU 30ISP 33BLM 34SMQ 29DXR 28BDR 3512N 30FWN 30SWF 34HWV 29MGJ 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 Made it down to 32 here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 It looks like a cool and wet period on the way after a warm Saturday. I don't know ...last week euro said this week was going to be a cold and rainy..so be cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 I don't know ...last week euro said this week was going to be a cold and rainy..so be cautious The strong dip in the NAO to negative levels we haven't seen in since October make me believe what the models are depicting. The negativity looks to be temporary as far as I could see but it will play a significant role in our weather pattern. I favor cooler, more unsettled weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 21, 2014 Share Posted April 21, 2014 The 12z GGEM has one of the craziest blocking scenarios I've seen in a long time. Two cut off lows, one over the east coast and other over the southern plains and deep south. Paints 12"+ of rain for parts of the mid-west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 The 12z GGEM has one of the craziest blocking scenarios I've seen in a long time. Two cut off lows, one over the east coast and other over the southern plains and deep south. Paints 12"+ of rain for parts of the mid-west.Where are you getting this from? It doesn't show anything close to 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Where are you getting this from? It doesn't show anything close to 12".Read my post, it's for the central states and a day ten total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Latest HRRR gets areas away from the coast into 70s today. Before some showers and t-storms arrive this evening with the cold front: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Latest HRRR gets areas away from the coast into 70s today. Before some showers and t-storms arrive this evening with the cold front: I think any shower activity will be scattered and light, nam spits out about .06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 The negative NAO will probably ensure that the s/w trough amplifications are stronger in the medium to long range for the April 20th-30th period. Should see cooler than normal temps for the last 10 days overall. Thereafter, I think we flip to a very warm regime in May, potentially with our first 90s in the beginning third of the month. The cold anomalies across Canada are definitely starting to decrease, and I don't think much will be remaining about 10 days from now. Tend to doubt we will see any 90's around here the first 10 days of May - normal to below normal temps from the partially frozen great lakes through the northeast and northern mid atlantic http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 The 00z GGEM and 00z ECMWF have a very non-progressive look to them with multiple cut off lows propagating across the county. Temperatures should remain at normal or below normal levels and we should see above average rainfall at least through the next 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Hit 72.1F earlier this hour, down a couple degrees now with thicker clouds moving in. Beautiful morning; shame we couldn't keep it going all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 The 12z GFS is gorgeous for early next week. Cold temps, drizzle, periods of rain, heavy at times with a slow moving coastal just offshore. Man, the GFS was spot on! Not sure why people are buying what the models are spitting out a week+ in advance, especially in Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Man, the GFS was spot on! Not sure why people are buying what the models are spitting out a week+ in advance, especially in Spring. As is usualy the case, they are siding with their preference. Yanks likes his rain, he sided with the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 As is usualy the case, they are siding with their preference. Yanks likes his rain, he sided with the rain Given the fact that our water temps have been colder than normal, this has been a pretty solid April so far. Lots of 60s (and some 70s) and sun, not many BDCFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Given the fact that our water temps have been colder than normal, this has been a pretty solid April so far. Lots of 60s (and some 70s) and sun, not many BDCFs. It's been near to slightly above so yea it's been pretty good, a plethora of really nice days. I hate the heat so will enjoy these temps as long as possible before 90s become inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 As is usualy the case, they are siding with their preference. Yanks likes his rain, he sided with the rain The 12z ECMWF has pretty much wall to wall rain beginning Monday morning and lasting through the end of the run. Hopefully that works out well for me at least one time this year. Then after that we can move onto nicer weather for the middle of May and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Looks like the CFS had the right idea as the current warmer departures are getting trimmed back with cooler than normal conditions prevailing for the remainder of the month in the forecast. We were up +3-4 degrees after the warm up over a week ago and are close to even now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Well if the 12z ECMWF operational has any clue, we rain steadily Friday night, clear out for Saturday and Sunday and then welcome in a cut off beginning Monday morning that persists at least through Friday. It won't rain constantly but it could be steadier and heavier at times and it's the type of storm that fills up the reservoirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 It's been near to slightly above so yea it's been pretty good, a plethora of really nice days. I hate the heat so will enjoy these temps as long as possible before 90s become inevitable.Temp departure for month here is 0... large diurnal temp swings typical of a rather dry april have been seen... today went from 43 to 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Looks like the CFS had the right idea as the current warmer departures are getting trimmed back with cooler than normal conditions prevailing for the remainder of the month in the forecast. We were up +3-4 degrees after the warm up over a week ago and are close to even now. summaryCFSv2.NaT2mProb.201404.gif MonthTDeptUS.png M7D8.gif Except it totally missed the + departures in the eastern 3rd of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Except it totally missed the + departures in the eastern 3rd of the country. I dont think you read his post correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 I dont think you read his post correctly. Most of those plots show large cold anomalies for April in the East. I don't think those will be realized what with 8 days remaining in the month and avg to above avg temps expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Most of those plots show large cold anomalies for April in the East. I don't think those will be realized what with 8 days remaining in the month and avg to above avg temps expected. You did notice the GFS Ensemble mean he showed, right? Remember what I said about people leaning towards their biases... don't forget, you do have one too, warminista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 You did notice the GFS Ensemble mean he showed, right? Remember what I said about people leaning towards their biases... don't forget, you do have one too, warminista Yep, I know!! But, I only see below norm temps for maybe tomorrow and the 29 & 30th, and assuming we stay right around 60 and lows are above average because of clouds/precip, I don't see how we will turn to a sharply negative departure on the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 Yep, I know!! But, I only see below norm temps for maybe tomorrow and the 29 & 30th, and assuming we stay right around 60 and lows are above average because of clouds/precip, I don't see how we will turn to a sharply negative departure on the month. The majority of the CFS runs have NYC in the near normal gray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 22, 2014 Share Posted April 22, 2014 The majority of the CFS runs have NYC in the near normal gray. Fair enough. I think it was more off to our west. Take Pittsburgh for example, the NWS has them near normal for most of the rest of April with one day probably -8 to -10 and one day +5 to +8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.