nuttyrich76 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yes not way west, but a tick or so, Precip shield seems closer to the coast. It's a START. Anyone see the nam (I know it blows) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuttyrich76 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Really? From that image didnt seem radical. QPf numbers please? Jfk KNYC ISP? Euro gave NYC .50 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 While I wouldnt say thats WAY West, it appears to be a slight improvement Well, I didn't......just putting the images out there to see. I could really care less if we get more snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Fully appreciate your effort posting images thank you. Do you have any idea how Qpf ooks on this run for major New York stations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Well, I didn't......just putting the images out there to see. I could really care less if we get more snow at this point. Think you meant "couldn't care less"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yes not way west, but a tick or so, Precip shield seems closer to the coast. It's a START. Anyone see the nam (I know it blows) The 6z Nam is a little west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuttyrich76 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The 6z Nam is a little west of 0z Thank you :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The 6z Nam is a little west of 0z NAM still out of its range though so thats neither here nor there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 NAM still out of its range though so thats neither here nor there. Yes it is but I like to look anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Select 6z GFS QPF figures: BDR: 0.33" BOS: 0.48" EWR: 0.15" FOK: 0.48" HPN: 0.19" HVN: 0.40" ISP: 0.36" JFK: 0.22" LGA: 0.18" MTP: 0.63" NYC: 0.16" POU: 0.14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't think we see the final solution on the modeling until at least 0z Tuesday. It just makes sense that this storm should develop closer to the coast and the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. You can see the modeling sniff that out by elongating the pressure field toward the coast. If it's a blizzard you are looking for then just remember that we usually don't see anywhere near the final solution until we are within 24 hours of the event. The Blizzards of 1983,1996 and 2003 weren't written in stone until the the day before and in the case of 1983 virtually the last hours. I'm not comparing the details of the storms but rather the way last minute changes can have major implications. My gut tells me this one may suprise us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Select 6z GFS QPF figures: BDR: 0.33" BOS: 0.48" EWR: 0.15" FOK: 0.48" HPN: 0.19" HVN: 0.40" ISP: 0.36" JFK: 0.22" LGA: 0.18" MTP: 0.63" NYC: 0.16" POU: 0.14" Thank you Don. is that an improvement over previous run? I believe so but not sure about numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't think we see the final solution on the modeling until at least 0z Tuesday. It just makes sense that this storm should develop closer to the coast and the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. You can see the modeling sniff that out by elongating the pressure field toward the coast. If it's a blizzard you are looking for then just remember that we usually don't see anywhere near the final solution until we are within 24 hours of the event. The Blizzards of 1983,1996 and 2003 weren't written in stone until the the day before and in the case of 1983 virtually the last hours. I'm not comparing the details of the storms but rather the way last minute changes can have major implications. My gut tells me this one may suprise us. My emotional part would like to agree with you my mind knows otherwise. Hopefully thought we can head to the 4-8 inch territory in KNYC & more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 March Madness . That's how close Nassau and Suffolk counties are to a big event in late March . CT too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z700_f072_us.html left turn... Clyde? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 March Madness . That's how close Nassau and Suffolk counties are to a big event in late March . CT too Paul i truly think this isnt going to wide right like that. Typically with an extremely rapidly deepening EC storm they tend to correct west to some degree. IMO in the end i think nassau/suffolk will be a SECS atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 March Madness . That's how close Nassau and Suffolk counties are to a big event in late March . CT too Road trip to montauk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 March Madness . That's how close Nassau and Suffolk counties are to a big event in late March . CT too My jaw just dropped. did you SEE the numbers for the cape????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2.5 FEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Road trip to montauk? Open the map- Cape Cod . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My jaw just dropped. did you SEE the numbers for the cape????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2.5 FEET! Lol - 19 into Boston, that`s why the NE guys last nite were yelling way west - just not in time for KNYC, but for them its a bomb and Eastern Long Island is close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Road trip to montauk? I'll take some pics out here for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My emotional part would like to agree with you my mind knows otherwise. Hopefully thought we can head to the 4-8 inch territory in KNYC & more east. To be honest with you, I,m not really interested in a 4-8 inch snowfall with a 960mb low forecast to bomb out offshore. Don't get me wrong, we've had a terrific year in the snowfall department but like many of us here I want all or nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Open the map- Cape Cod . Leaving Monday afternoon after work. Taking my 2 boys to my In laws house in Harwich to enjoy the show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 If the Euro verifies, that is a really tight gradient for the area. Just need it a little more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Lol - 19 into Boston, that`s why the NE guys last nite were yelling way west - just not in time for KNYC, but for them its a bomb and Eastern Long Island is close . BUT and it is a VERY important BUT : BOX isnt buying the Euro solution @ all ! consider it an extreme outlier. But lets take a breath for a moment. The 3 major weather offices Mt Holly, Upton & Box all agree on 1 thing : nothing is off the table yet. It is very possible to look at 1-2 feet from CNJ- BGR just as it is possible to look at 1-2 flakes from Ric to BGR. The Only Places likely close to certain @ this juncture are the cape and N.S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 March Madness . That's how close Nassau and Suffolk counties are to a big event in late March . CT too Should get better sampling of the important piece of energy on the 12Z runs today. THE REX HIGH IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER OVER ALASKA THAN INITIALIZED AND THE IMPLICATION WOULD BE THAT THE LAST PIECE OF THE PUZZLE, THE SHORT WAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST TERRITORY AND NUNAVUT BORDER IS COMING IN SLIGHTLY HOTTER THAN INITIALIZED. THE NEXT SOUNDING RUN SHOULD FINALLY HAVE A BETTER CAPTURE AND LAND BASED RAOB SAMPLING OF THIS FEATURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Paul i truly think this isnt going to wide right like that. Typically with an extremely rapidly deepening EC storm they tend to correct west to some degree. IMO in the end i think nassau/suffolk will be a SECS atleast 50 - 75 mile wobble is in the cards . Not sure if it`s east or west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 March Madness . That's how close Nassau and Suffolk counties are to a big event in late March . CT too Do they allow these images to be posted? It says right on the bottom of the main Weatherbell page that these images cannot be used. Am I missing something? I mean I would love to post these as well, I just don't want to break the law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Leaving Monday afternoon after work. Taking my 2 boys to my In laws house in Harwich to enjoy the show! Sustained 45 plus for 12 hours , these are you`re gusts . The drifts should be insane . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Do they allow these images to be posted? It says right on the bottom of the main Weatherbell page that these images cannot be used. Am I missing something? I mean I would love to post these as well, I just don't want to break the law. No you can show the Euro as long as its not the Euro itself . If you change their map you can post em . Maue re created them into this format , so they are ok with it . And WX bell could care less as long as you are a paid member . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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