Harbourton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12Z Euro remains rock solid and basically OTS. I think the GFS will cave to the Euro at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Bernie rayno has his 3" plus threat area from just south of philly to maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 12Z Euro remains rock solid and basically OTS. I think the GFS will cave to the Euro at this point. Is it possible for the GFS to go more "OTS" than it already has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro primary low track was notably further southeast. It doesn't phase as well as the previous run. Despite that, QPF is about the same, influenced by the northern stream piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Snippet from the model diagnosis posted on the NY forum. WITH THEDETERMINISTIC ECMWF APPEARING TOO SLOW AND PROBABLY TOO FARSOUTHEAST OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUES. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN FAVORS THEMORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP GFS-LED CAMP. THEREFORE...BASED ON THELATEST TRENDS AND MODEL CLUSTERING...WILL PREFER A BLEND OF THE12Z GFS/12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 00Z ECENS MEAN...HOWEVER CONFIDENCEWILL REMAIN LIMITED. Sounds like this thing is still up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 For our area, writing is just about on the wall. Come tonight we might need to rely on a Boxing Day miracle shift....However, coastal NE still looks like they're in good shape & I'm considering traveling for this one. I really think they (coastal NE) are going to get clobbered so may be worth the trip. I'm not sure I would be comfortable writing it off for us until tomorrow just because this storm is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Definitely losing confidence in this one, just a neat/near-miss with some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro ens are way way northwest of operational!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I am shocked at the almost complete lack of chatter about this event. Yeah, I get it.... it's been a long winter with lots and lots of snow and it is now late March and model consensus is pushing it out to sea.... blah... blah... blah. The fact remains that, worst case, there is going to be an intense storm just off the east coast with plenty of cold air nearby. Next year, we are all going to be praying for this scenario to happen, and, if we're lucky, it might happen once... and if we're unlucky, it might be years before this happens again. Enjoy it now, brothers, because we don't know when mother nature will see fit to do this again.... nor, for that matter, do any of us know how many winters we have left, which is all the more reason to grab every single snow threat with both hands and not let go until the last flake has fallen or it has officially passed us by... regardless of whether it is November or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 I am shocked at the almost complete lack of chatter about this event. Yeah, I get it.... it's been a long winter with lots and lots of snow and it is now late March and model consensus is pushing it out to sea.... blah... blah... blah. The fact remains that, worst case, there is going to be an intense storm just off the east coast with plenty of cold air nearby. Next year, we are all going to be praying for this scenario to happen, and, if we're lucky, it might happen once... and if we're unlucky, it might be years before this happens again. Enjoy it now, brothers, because we don't know when mother nature will see fit to do this again.... nor, for that matter, do any of us know how many winters we have left, which is all the more reason to grab every single snow threat with both hands and not let go until the last flake has fallen or it has officially passed us by... regardless of whether it is November or March. Everyone migrated elsewhere in the forums. Most here are visiting the NYC forums. I'm actually also stopping by DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro ens are way way northwest of operational!!! Not northwest enough for I-95 on NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I am shocked at the almost complete lack of chatter about this event. Yeah, I get it.... it's been a long winter with lots and lots of snow and it is now late March and model consensus is pushing it out to sea.... blah... blah... blah. The fact remains that, worst case, there is going to be an intense storm just off the east coast with plenty of cold air nearby. Next year, we are all going to be praying for this scenario to happen, and, if we're lucky, it might happen once... and if we're unlucky, it might be years before this happens again. Enjoy it now, brothers, because we don't know when mother nature will see fit to do this again.... nor, for that matter, do any of us know how many winters we have left, which is all the more reason to grab every single snow threat with both hands and not let go until the last flake has fallen or it has officially passed us by... regardless of whether it is November or March. AMEN!!!Sadly Ray is correct about this forums continental drift per se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Not northwest enough for I-95 on NW.Slowly it turns inch by inch, foot by foot, yard by yard...ok so we need some more mileage but we have 3 days yet to get there!!!!! Positive thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Even if philly gets 1-3" I'll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Everyone migrated elsewhere in the forums. Most here are visiting the NYC forums. I'm actually also stopping by DC. I jump around the forums a lot but in the end you get as much information in one page here as you do in 10 pages in the NYC forum without the bickering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I jump around the forums a lot but in the end you get as much information in one page here as you do in 10 pages in the NYC forum without the bickering.Exactly.It's funny, I read the comments in this forum and 3 posts in I know what is going on. The other forum I use for entertainment, and 30 pages in I leave more confused than ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I am shocked at the almost complete lack of chatter about this event. Yeah, I get it.... it's been a long winter with lots and lots of snow and it is now late March and model consensus is pushing it out to sea.... blah... blah... blah. there haven't been any big hits on the models yet...for the immediate area. thus, the lack of insanity. But a couple of good trends the last few hours. Euro ENS... and.... the model nobody talks about, but me. even though it's just the NAM it tracked dramatically more inland at 18z...compared to 12z. lets see if GFS follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 There seems to be some support for an inverted trough scenario in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 there haven't been any big hits on the models yet...for the immediate area. thus, the lack of insanity. But a couple of good trends the last few hours. Euro ENS... and.... the model nobody talks about, but me. even though it's just the NAM it tracked dramatically more inland at 18z...compared to 12z. lets see if GFS follows. 0 Z runs tonight will be telling. Still have some opportunity for jump west. Up where I live, I need more than just a tick west with the current models. If i lived in coastal DE/NJ or Long Island odds favor some snow. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0 Z runs tonight will be telling. Still have some opportunity for jump west. Up where I live, I need more than just a tick west with the current models. If i lived in coastal DE/NJ or Long Island odds favor some snow. Best. I'm not as far north as you but enough west that I need a pretty good shift west. As it is we will get some snow, and even if light will be a nice end to a good winter. I think the 12Z runs tomorrow will be very important. I have a strong feeling there will be a significant west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Exactly. It's funny, I read the comments in this forum and 3 posts in I know what is going on. The other forum I use for entertainment, and 30 pages in I leave more confused than ever. I traveled a lot between NJ and MD the last three years and would frequent the mid Atlantic thread - no knock on them but snow is very special and shear volume of posts made it difficult to figure out what I really needed to know - NY is out of my range here in NJ - Philly forum was always the best fit - and although posters are down it is still the most relevant weather info needed. As for the upcoming storm - concerns along the coast with wind and wet ground - there have been some trees uprooted from the recent storms in my area (in more wooded areas) - I am old enough to remember Nor'easter's in March (April) in NJ with plenty of snow - this one has a cold source that I have not previously seen that it can tap into and if the dynamics play right... Will go back to watching and reading and see what Sunday model runs bring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Need to see some improvements from the 0z runs. Ray, was Sandy the lowest pressure reading in the NW part of the Alantic? I would think if the current modeled pressure readings verified in the gulf of maine, it would have to be among not to many storms. Correct me if I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Anyone any thoughts on wind velocity for coastal Cape May and Atlantic counties as modeled and forecasted presently for storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfiend420 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 What time do the 0z runs come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 NAM continues to show a norlun signal. 18z it was near PHL now at 0Z near DCA. NAM usually first to see those features, but still outside its range. Surface low is wayyyyy east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The NAM modeled that one storm pretty well earlier in the season; though i'm hardly entirely convinced. Even so: .... NAM continues to show a norlun signal. 18z it was near PHL now at 0Z n Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some decent spread on the SREF in regards to slp placement: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 A near-perfect example of convective feedback as the hires NAM develops a surface low over the cluster of thunderstorms east of FL: Should be to the North of that area imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Need to see some improvements from the 0z runs. Ray, was Sandy the lowest pressure reading in the NW part of the Alantic? I would think if the current modeled pressure readings verified in the gulf of maine, it would have to be among not to many storms. Correct me if I am wrong. Pretty sure there was something lower. Just a hunch, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The January 1993 storm was 914 mb over the far North Atlantic (southeast of Iceland I believe) but that probably doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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