Animal Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 Everything I've read as of late seems to suggest a rather sluggish return to winter over the next several weeks. My expectations are tempered. January will produce for us in this thread. It would take a complete weather failure for most of us not to get 15 inches +/- of snow this month. All we need is one decent event and a minor event or two. I remain optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Everything I've read as of late seems to suggest a rather sluggish return to winter over the next several weeks. My expectations are tempered.Agreed. It's odd to think too that assuming there's no more measurable snow here that I'll be below average in the snowfall dept by the end of the month. To Animals point though, HM was making some interesting points on Twitter the other day so we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Even though it seems night and day compared to last year, the cold really didn't hit full bore until January 21st. Prior to that, 12 of the 20 days in January were at or above normal, and of the below normal days, 3 were just below at 31-33 degrees for a high (using Poughkeepsie data, average high of 35 degrees). There was also 1 day in the 60s, 3 in the 50s, and 4 in the upper 40s. Of course, we did have some very cold days mixed in, and a couple of snow events. Anyhow, with that being said, I don't think it's time to cancel winter just yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Even though it seems night and day compared to last year, the cold really didn't hit full bore until January 21st. Prior to that, 12 of the 20 days in January were at or above normal, and of the below normal days, 3 were just below at 31-33 degrees for a high (using Poughkeepsie data, average high of 35 degrees). There was also 1 day in the 60s, 3 in the 50s, and 4 in the upper 40s. Of course, we did have some very cold days mixed in, and a couple of snow events. Anyhow, with that being said, I don't think it's time to cancel winter just yet! Canceling too soon is just as bad as spiking footballs too soon. Just enjoy the ride no matter where it takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I am predicting a very snowy February in these parts, anticipating a rising QBO slowing the Pac Jet and consistent climo during El Nino years delivering for us later in winter. January will be a transition month from this mild pattern to the Feb one with most of our snow after Jan 15. I could be way off, but I'm sticking to it. March will be very stormy and cold with a good chance for a KU event in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 28, 2014 Author Share Posted December 28, 2014 Even though it seems night and day compared to last year, the cold really didn't hit full bore until January 21st. Prior to that, 12 of the 20 days in January were at or above normal, and of the below normal days, 3 were just below at 31-33 degrees for a high (using Poughkeepsie data, average high of 35 degrees). There was also 1 day in the 60s, 3 in the 50s, and 4 in the upper 40s. Of course, we did have some very cold days mixed in, and a couple of snow events. Anyhow, with that being said, I don't think it's time to cancel winter just yet! i typically cancel winter April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I am predicting a very snowy February in these parts, anticipating a rising QBO slowing the Pac Jet and consistent climo during El Nino years delivering for us later in winter. January will be a transition month from this mild pattern to the Feb one with most of our snow after Jan 15. I could be way off, but I'm sticking to it. March will be very stormy and cold with a good chance for a KU event in early March. Feb. is the snowiest month for these parts. 2 of the last 5 have been historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Feb. is the snowiest month for these parts. 2 of the last 5 have been historic42" of snow here last Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 42" of snow here last Feb Last feb was awesome. 2-3ft snowpack for the entire month as well. Feb 2010 was unreal though. Most of us I think hAd 50"+ that month alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Last feb was awesome. 2-3ft snowpack for the entire month as well. Feb 2010 was unreal though. Most of us I think hAd 50"+ that month aloneI'd have to check my records but I don't think my snowpack got to 24" last year, if I did then it wasn't for long due to compaction. It was a good snowpack year though for sure. I'll have to look up Feb 2010 some fall too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'd have to check my records but I don't think my snowpack got to 24" last year, if I did then it wasn't for long due to compaction. It was a good snowpack year though for sure. I'll have to look up Feb 2010 some fall too. U probably did , I was up to 28 or so I believe and I remember because I have a detached garage that's right next to my in ground pool. Well the whole pool side of the roofs snow pack slide of my garage roof and into my pool lol. I thought my liner was ruined as the ice shifted about two feet in the air on the low side . Thankfully no damage lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I'd have to check my records but I don't think my snowpack got to 24" last year, if I did then it wasn't for long due to compaction. It was a good snowpack year though for sure. I'll have to look up Feb 2010 some fall too. Im pretty sure you had at least 24" otg for awhile. There was very little melt going on in that time period. If I'm not mistaken I maintained 28-32" for quite a bit during that stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 My max depth last Feb was 24" on the 14th after I got the 18.1". Three days later the pack was down to 21" even though temps had remained below freezing the entire time. That's the sort of settling and compaction that I was referring too. Also... Feb 2010: 46.0" Feb 2014: 42.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I am predicting a very snowy February in these parts, anticipating a rising QBO slowing the Pac Jet and consistent climo during El Nino years delivering for us later in winter. January will be a transition month from this mild pattern to the Feb one with most of our snow after Jan 15. I could be way off, but I'm sticking to it. March will be very stormy and cold with a good chance for a KU event in early March. Yeah I am also relying on a snowy Feb, although the ECMWF seems to think the party is coming early this run lol. Even in the winter of 2011-2012 I had multiple southwest flow events in Feb. So far I'm at about 9.5 for the season, almost all in November. Pretty sure my work at 1200' in New Paltz is at about 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Cold night. Temp has dropped to 14f Wondering if I can dip into the single digits over night. Temp has spiked back to 18f as of 1015 pm Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 0z GFS for Saturday night for MGJ is a 6 hr front end dump followed by zr.. I don't believe it one bit but nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Good day weather fans and happy new year! low this morning was 16F High today 27F Current temp is 25F Had a few snow flurries earlier. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 0z GFS for Saturday night for MGJ is a 6 hr front end dump followed by zr.. I don't believe it one bit but nice to see.Upton still calling for snow here before a flip towards the end so we'll see how long the cold hangs on. It was good to see the snow guns blasting away on the tubing hill the past couple of days, feet and feet of snow so I have that going for me, which is nice. Quite a meltdown in the NE threads by the usual suspect, somewhat entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Upton still calling for snow here before a flip towards the end so we'll see how long the cold hangs on. It was good to see the snow guns blasting away on the tubing hill the past couple of days, feet and feet of snow so I have that going for me, which is nice. Quite a meltdown in the NE threads by the usual suspect, somewhat entertaining. It must be nice to see the snow guns fire away. A short trip to do some tubing for us and just a short walk for you. Have a healthy and safe New Year and yes, no meltdown in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Upton still calling for snow here before a flip towards the end so we'll see how long the cold hangs on. It was good to see the snow guns blasting away on the tubing hill the past couple of days, feet and feet of snow so I have that going for me, which is nice. Quite a meltdown in the NE threads by the usual suspect, somewhat entertaining. Mt Holly NWS expects some snow & sleet saturday afternoon north of I 78. May get an inch or so prior to it being washed away with an inch of rain. NJZ001-PAZ054-055-012100- SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- 400 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW AND SLEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It must be nice to see the snow guns fire away. A short trip to do some tubing for us and just a short walk for you. Have a healthy and safe New Year and yes, no meltdown in this thread We could have a GTG at the base of the tubing hill just so we all can watch the snow fly, LOL. Happy New Year to you and yours old buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 what tubing hill is the discussion about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Mt Holly NWS expects some snow & sleet saturday afternoon north of I 78. May get an inch or so prior to it being washed away with an inch of rain. NJZ001-PAZ054-055-012100- SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE- 400 PM EST WED DEC 31 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW AND SLEET ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. It stinks buddy but we aren't rookies here, we just roll with the punches. We'll get ours eventually. Happy New Year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 what tubing hill is the discussion about?Incoming PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm up at my second home in Liberty NY in Sullivan County until Sunday, hopefully a couple of inches up here Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Doesn't it figure ... No snow to speak of for the season so far (other than the pre Turkey Day storm) but the commute home from the city Saturday night will probably suck and then Sunday will be wet. Hope everybody has a Happy New Year! Think of me while you're out partying, my 88 year old FIL was taken to the hospital this afternoon with some sort of heart issue and my wife is staying there as late as they will let her. I'm eating microwave food and drinking Sierra Nevadas at home with one of the kids, the other is with the wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Doesn't it figure ... No snow to speak of for the season so far (other than the pre Turkey Day storm) but the commute home from the city Saturday night will probably suck and then Sunday will be wet. Hope everybody has a Happy New Year! Think of me while you're out partying, my 88 year old FIL was taken to the hospital this afternoon with some sort of heart issue and my wife is staying there as late as they will let her. I'm eating microwave food and drinking Sierra Nevadas at home with one of the kids, the other is with the wife. Sorry to hear that, I hope it all works out. I'm drinking with one of my kids too until the others get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm up at my second home in Liberty NY in Sullivan County until Sunday, hopefully a couple of inches up here Saturday?I would think you see at least that much up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Thanks Rob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 1, 2015 Share Posted January 1, 2015 Happy New Year guys! Looks like Upton is leaning toward a few inches for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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