user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is a tick east and a little colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 18z GFS has most of the snow from the front end and then dry slot before a weak version of the trowel. It hammers interior New England though. Hopefully it was just the GFS being the GFS. It really hammers eastern Li with it this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Who really cares about the dumb crappy low resolution, cant handle the dynamics GFS, booo, especially when the radar is inching the snow further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is a tick east and a little colder And quite a bit drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Who really cares about the dumb crappy low resolution, cant handle the dynamics GFS, booo, especially when the radar is inching the snow further north It's starting to become now casting time. The radar looks great down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The precipitation shield is having no trouble developing down south. The radar is western NC continues to fill in and intensify. I'm riding a Euro/NAM blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The precipitation shield is having no trouble developing down south. The radar is western NC continues to fill in and intensify. I'm riding a Euro/NAM blend. You buying the NAM yellows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's starting to become now casting time. The radar looks great down stream. Yea by tonight we can start using the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I would ride the more dynamic models as the gfs has never been as enthused, and let's not forget its struggles with the big storm last Feb for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 May not be SuperStorm quality but that's quite the squall line approaching Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Banter/emotional posts in the banter thread, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 who remembers which models did best with the nov 2012 snowstorm? that was a TROWAL that wasn't well forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 who remembers which models did best with the nov 2012 snowstorm? that was a TROWAL that wasn't well forecast All I remember was it was a week after Sandy and models had us changing over to rain after ~1 inch of snow. We picked up almost a foot in Eastern Monmouth County when all was said and done. That was some of the heaviest snow I've ever driven through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What I'm seeing from the models is monmouth county in nj Is gonna see 3-6" then rain? Any thoughts on this? Will the gfs tick east have any impact on making air colder? The temp here today was 23F for the high.. Any back lash snow? It's really getting tiring having to keep deleting your posts. Take this somewhere else, please, or you'll be restricted from posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's what makes this storm exciting. You don't exactly know what's going to happen, where the CCB will be, how strong the rates will be, will it be colder as we are still seeing varying solutions from the models. So it's not so easy forecasting snow totals, so I can understand some who play it safe. The November storm definitely was surprising for me as I certainly didn't expect some 6-7" of snow at all when I thought it would be more rainy than anything else. Part of the snowy solution though was because the low ended up tracking a bit further east than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check the surface reading around temps are in the teens with DP in the low teens . Temps will fall in the 1st few hours , so its gona be a long climb up . The precip shield down south doesn`t look like .5 as per GFS on the front . This looks much more NAM like and I think 1 inch plus is gona come through the flow before we get out of the hole in the AM . Think the models trended our way today , and I think the High Resolutions will button up the backside of this as to where when and how much tomorrow nite . 0z tonite , and " if " no wobble West , we look as good as we could without blocking and a retreating HP system . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 who remembers which models did best with the nov 2012 snowstorm? that was a TROWAL that wasn't well forecast Good point forky...That storm ended up colder than the models were showing....This is going to come down to now casting and the HRRR and it has been stellar this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good point forky...That storm ended up colder than the models were showing....This is going to come down to HRRR it has been stellar this winter when can we start using the HRRR? assume its in a good range now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 when can we start using the HRRR? assume its in a good range now? No not yet, I would start using it more confidently around 0z or so for our area - But we can start seeing how is doing down south and compare it to other guidance to see who has the best handle so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Check the surface reading around temps are in the teens with DP in the low teens . Temps will fall in the 1st few hours , so its gona be a long climb up . The precip shield down south doesn`t look like .5 as per GFS on the front . This looks much more NAM like and I think 1 inch plus is gona come through the flow before we get out of the hole in the AM . Think the models trended our way today , and I think the High Resolutions will button up the backside of this as to where when and how much tomorrow nite . 0z tonite , and " if " no wobble West , we look as good as we could without blocking and a retreating HP system . Strongly agree....seeing the dewpoints in the single digits with large dewpoint depressions and a wall of moisture to the south argues for a long period of heavy snow before the changeover. We might get close to 12" just off the front-end dump given the size of this system, which currently stretches from Cuba to Washington, DC. CCB/TROWAL still in question but looks nice. Still think this isn't our storm buddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At this point now cast the storm. To me its the best part of the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The HRRR is just starting to come into range for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From the 4k NAM: EWR: 6.7" front end + 5.1" back end HPN: 6.8" front end + 6.7" back end LGA: 5.6" front end + 7.8" back end Note: Bufkit shows the snow going over to freezing rain then back to snow before the changeover to rain occurs. The front end excludes that brief return to snow, as often that outcome does not play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Strongly agree....seeing the dewpoints in the single digits with large dewpoint depressions and a wall of moisture to the south argues for a long period of heavy snow before the changeover. We might get close to 12" just off the front-end dump given the size of this system, which currently stretches from Cuba to Washington, DC. CCB/TROWAL still in question but looks nice. Still think this isn't our storm buddy? Something I've noticed, and it probably won't be a big deal, but the 925mb warm layer seems to be outpacing the 850mb warm layer on some of the recent model runs when we are ripping like crazy. That could introduce some sleet into the picture in some spots. But it seems quite minor so likely won't make much difference here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Strongly agree....seeing the dewpoints in the single digits with large dewpoint depressions and a wall of moisture to the south argues for a long period of heavy snow before the changeover. We might get close to 12" just off the front-end dump given the size of this system, which currently stretches from Cuba to Washington, DC. CCB/TROWAL still in question but looks nice. Still think this isn't our storm buddy? The not our storm was for me and Rossi in Colts Neck . Not KNYC . That said I PM d Rossi last nite and said OOPS . So very happy ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So how come Don's numbers are lower than the other snowfall totals being thrown about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Something I've noticed, and it probably won't be a big deal, but the 925mb warm layer seems to be outpacing the 850mb warm layer on some of the recent model runs when we are ripping like crazy. That could introduce some sleet into the picture in some spots. But it seems quite minor so likely won't make much difference here. Good poin. That's because the warm layer is nested between 925mb and 850mb. So you aren't seeing the full picture on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Something I've noticed, and it probably won't be a big deal, but the 925mb warm layer seems to be outpacing the 850mb warm layer on some of the recent model runs when we are ripping like crazy. That could introduce some sleet into the picture in some spots. But it seems quite minor so likely won't make much difference here. Looking at the 18z GFS, the 700mb low doesn't completely mature/close off until it's near Montauk Point...that's a little too close to the coast, and a little too late for NYC. The 850mb low takes an ideal track about 75-100 miles southeast of NYC, which suggests to me that the 850mb warmth should be limited given we are well on the northwest side of the developing deformation zone. I would like to see the H7 close off earlier and be a bit farther offshore; this would limit mid-level warmth and also create a faster-developing deformation band. We want H7 to close and tighten off the NJ Coast so that the deformation band is at its most intense over NYC, not over NE CT. Overall the H5 and H85 tracks are nice...would like to develop some deep RH with the H7 low being faster and more intense. I think it can happen. That stuff is most important for the deformation zone. The front-end 8-12" is going to happen regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 jm1220, from midnight to 7-9 am tomorrow Ive got a great feeling we're going to see 2-3"/hr snowfall rates over LI and probably approach a foot. its getting really cold, colder than progged currently and it looks like were going to see downright prolific rates for atleast a few hours at the peak. also checking the VV's etc. thundersnow looks likely as well Just checking the NWS grids for south shore. Anywhere from 4-11 total. Usually like to look at them just to stay grounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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