REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So how come Don's numbers are lower than the other snowfall totals being thrown about. don is usually on the conservative side typically and doesn't really like to make outlandish calls outside the box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good poin. That's because the warm layer is nested between 925mb and 850mb. So you aren't seeing the full picture on those maps. It's also why the thickness values are higher than I would like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Good poin. That's because the warm layer is nested between 925mb and 850mb. So you aren't seeing the full picture on those maps. Yea very true, You can see it already on the HRRR, 925 is almost 50-100 miles north of 850 at some points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So how come Don's numbers are lower than the other snowfall totals being thrown about. don is usually on the conservative side typically and doesn't really like to make outlandish calls outside the box That isn't his forecast. It's the snow output from the 4k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 don is usually on the conservative side typically and doesn't really like to make outlandish calls outside the box dons numbers are from bufkit soundings not his own forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 don is usually on the conservative side typically and doesn't really like to make outlandish calls outside the box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's also why the thickness values are higher than I would like to see. hopefully ice wont sneak into the picture tomorrow during our snowfall in the morning and evening as it would really cut down on accumulations. we saw this during the 2013 blizzard last year with a few hour sleet fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 don is usually on the conservative side typically and doesn't really like to make outlandish calls outside the box that's not a call, that's model output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 don is usually on the conservative side typically and doesn't really like to make outlandish calls outside the box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 dons numbers are from bufkit soundings not his own forecast I was just saying he's typically not someone to get worked up over something but is rather more controlled in his posts. ive really got make my posts more clear that's what ive learned today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GEFS is the last model for 18z, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Njwinter Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So all the other snowfall totals are outlandish. I am just hoping we are getting accurate model depicted snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GEFS is the last model for 18z, correct? Yea then what I call model halftime between 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So how come Don's numbers are lower than the other snowfall totals being thrown about. I used the maximum temperature in profile algorithm. The omega algorithm would be quite a bit higher e.g., around a storm total of 18" at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 dons numbers are from bufkit soundings not his own forecast That's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I was just saying he's typically not someone to get worked up over something but is rather more controlled in his posts. ive really got make my posts more clear that's what ive learned today No problem. Hopefully, the storm will overperform for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Strongly agree....seeing the dewpoints in the single digits with large dewpoint depressions and a wall of moisture to the south argues for a long period of heavy snow before the changeover. We might get close to 12" just off the front-end dump given the size of this system, which currently stretches from Cuba to Washington, DC. CCB/TROWAL still in question but looks nice. Still think this isn't our storm buddy? and yet Major news is out to lunch but thats OK , will watch & learn here about TROWAL and CCB 6-10 front end and lets be conservative 2-4 bk end. Yes Ill take my 8-14 and smile all the way to the bank during what is clearly promising to be the blockbuster of a very very good year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The radar presentation tomorrow morning is going to be a real beauty with heaviest snows moving from around 12z on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The radar presentation tomorrow morning is going to be a real beauty. rad15.gif im going for either side of a foot for tomorrow morning thump and possible thundersnow as well. the rates from NYC-LI should be very prolific for an extended period of time. the backend CCB is still the wild card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What time is 12z 8AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's correct. Don - are you sure? Just kidding - man people are a bit jumpy right now - seems like 10 people all started buzzing about the same thing. Just wait until the radar doesn't look quite right or the rain mixes in early or the deformation band isn't perfect, etc. This place is going to be a freakin' zoo tomorrow. This is one of those storms where I wish we had a thread for only pros, mods, and selected dispassionate experts, like yourself, so the rest of us can read reasonable posts/analysis without having to wade through pages of drek. I know my post is quasi-banter, but it's worth thinking about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 8AM.7AM. Once daylight saving time begins it will be 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't get me wrong, there will still be extremely heavy snow and the warm air below 850 doesn't seem pronounced more than above that, but the true R/S line may be ahead of the 850 zero line for that reason. After 10am especially, we will really need the dynamics to stay snow near the coast and overcome the bit of warmth below 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18z NAM has strong mid-level frontogenesis tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18z NAM has strong mid-level frontogenesis tomorrow morning: that absolutely pummels LI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't get me wrong, there will still be extremely heavy snow and the warm air below 850 doesn't seem pronounced more than above that, but the true R/S line may be ahead of the 850 zero line for that reason. After 10am especially, we will really need the dynamics to stay snow near the coast and overcome the bit of warmth below 850. After 10am, 90-95% of the front end precip is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 that absolutely pummels LI! There is an area of tremendous lift that will come through between 7 and 10am. We might have 6 inches in that time frame if that happens. After 10am gets a little dicey. Hopefully the dry slot is near by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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