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February Banter


Vol Man

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For our Nashville peeps - The Snowdome. Someone asked on the football board how much snow everyone got and a poster from Nashville posted this. :(

BgS-pWcIEAASxO9.jpg

I heard they dismantled the Memphis and Nashville snow domes today to allow in all of the spring rainfall and put them in storage until next year. This may turn out to be a huge mistake on their part!

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I think he was mistakenly discussing the Euro control and not the weeklies.  Either way, what he was painting was very cold (and probably stormy)

 

The weekly EPS (at least on WeatherBell) has maps for both a control run and an ensemble mean going out 32 days.  It does indeed look very cold towards the end on the control.  Bouts of cold are shown on the mean as well.

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Who are the severe weather experts here? This will be our first spring here in North Alabama and I was just curious about how the future weather patterns are shaping up for severe weather this year. I'm use to having 4-5 days to prep for a hurricane, not 4-5 minutes to take shelter from a tornado. 

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Interesting severe wx setup for Thursday evening/night in the valley.  Looks like a stout QLCS for now...would have to watch for an embedded supercell or two based off shear vectors and the fact that we will actually have some instability to work with.

 

Thanks! See you are a GA at UAH. I'm getting my ChemE degree from there. 

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I have good news my friend.

Who are the severe weather experts here? This will be our first spring here in North Alabama and I was just curious about how the future weather patterns are shaping up for severe weather this year. I'm use to having 4-5 days to prep for a hurricane, not 4-5 minutes to take shelter from a tornado. 

 

You still get the 4-5 days for the big ones counting SPC outlooks, local forecasts, watches and warnings. Only difference is you definitely shelter in place for a warning. Prepare your room of choice when the watch is issued. Relocation should be accomplished before even a watch is issued.

 

Most tornadoes, 98-99%, are less than EF-4. Interior room will hold up, even if you see blue sky on the EF-3. Law of numbers strongly favors sheltering in place even for an EF-4/5. Only a fraction of the tornado will cause EF-4/5 damage, the suction vorticies. The chance of one of those going over your house is quite small even within the larger tornado. The chance of dying in your car is magnitudes higher. If still not comfortable, invest in a storm shelter. For $2,000 you can buy priceless piece of mind. Never drive away during a tornado warning. Never.

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Who are the severe weather experts here? This will be our first spring here in North Alabama and I was just curious about how the future weather patterns are shaping up for severe weather this year. I'm use to having 4-5 days to prep for a hurricane, not 4-5 minutes to take shelter from a tornado. 

You definitely moved into a bulls-eye zone. Tornado alley gets all the publicity because you get the highly visible tornadoes sweeping across miles of farm land and it makes for great pictures and videos. Now the Southeast is finally getting recognized for it's dangerous tornadoes.

 

tornad10.jpg

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Interesting severe wx setup for Thursday evening/night in the valley.  Looks like a stout QLCS for now...would have to watch for an embedded supercell or two based off shear vectors and the fact that we will actually have some instability to work with.

 

Glad to see you posting here Tony!

 

I have good news my friend.

 

You still get the 4-5 days for the big ones counting SPC outlooks, local forecasts, watches and warnings. Only difference is you definitely shelter in place for a warning. Prepare your room of choice when the watch is issued. Relocation should be accomplished before even a watch is issued.

 

Most tornadoes, 98-99%, are less than EF-4. Interior room will hold up, even if you see blue sky on the EF-3. Law of numbers strongly favors sheltering in place even for an EF-4/5. Only a fraction of the tornado will cause EF-4/5 damage, the suction vorticies. The chance of one of those going over your house is quite small even within the larger tornado. The chance of dying in your car is magnitudes higher. If still not comfortable, invest in a storm shelter. For $2,000 you can buy priceless piece of mind. Never drive away during a tornado warning. Never.

 

Really some good advice there Jeff, it's good to put risk into perspective.

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Said it yesterday and will say it again today...when I look at the pattern for the next three weeks, beginning next week we are loaded for bear.   That same isotherm that buried Kentucky during early and mid winter looks to be about 200 miles further south with an active jet based on the past three days of models.  I don't see a storm system per say.  But if one looks at the pattern, man, it's there to be had on multiple occasions.  I am not one to hype and we all know these patterns can fail or be falsely modeled.  But  would be surprised, if by the end of March, the TN Valley does not see at least two more winter events in the lower elevations.  I think the mountains are going to get pounded.  Ski resorts in the southern Apps would appear to be sitting pretty. 

 

Here is a cool fact...KTRI has recorded a trace or more of snow in October, November, December, January, and February.  I think KTRI has a real chance to record snow in March and early April.  I can say this, as a child that grew up in the 70s, this type of streak would have been good even then.  FWIW, I think the muted solar cycle we are in has coincided nicely w/ the increased snowfall over the eastern valley during the past 6-7 years. Monsters snows are fewer, but the frequency of 4-8" events has increased in Kingsport since 07' IMO in relation to the 90s.  It just seems the upcoming pattern is conducive to big March snows.  Until the cold in Canada decreases, we could easily wind-up in a winter pattern without much notice.  Head and shoulders, this winter has been better than last winter.  

 

For our middle and west TN friends, in normal climo years are you all more prone to snow early?  Just seems as a kid, when I lived in Knoxville, that middle and west would normally get the year's first snows and we would get the last.  Definitely seems Memphis would score earlier. 

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For our middle and west TN friends, in normal climo years are you all more prone to snow early? Just seems as a kid, when I lived in Knoxville, that middle and west would normally get the year's first snows and we would get the last. Definitely seems Memphis would score earlier.

Memphis rarely get a snow in December but ice is fairly common then. Memphis only has 1 December snow on record in excess of a foot. Also, Memphis averages more snow in March than December. December has more events but they are generally pretty small.

Most of Memphis 's biggest events come in March. The 2 biggest snows on history (18.5 and 17 inches) both occurred after March 16th. In addition, the 2 largest snow IMBY since living in Memphis - 6 inches and 10 inches occurred on Feb 28/Mar 1 and March 7/8.

The climo towards big storms is definitively weighted towards late season in Memphis.

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Lol. Just wondering how hard it is to get an engineering internship with them. 

 

It is tight right now because TVA is in the middle of several rounds of layoffs. However it goes in cycles. Now they are long people. In a few years when some people retire TVA will be short people. Anyway you are at a good school in a high tech environment. I'll be at Weather Fest. Hope to meet you.

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Hope everyone is ok after dealing with the squall line last night and I hope no one on our board, or their families suffered any damage.  I don't know if it was much of an event in the Tri-Cities.  I am guessing it wasn't, as I don't see any reports of damage on FB or the local media outlets.  I was FAST asleep and only heard rain this morning (with no thunder) as I awoke.

The models didn't look too good overnight, in taking a step away from the wintry looks they had been providing, but I agree with Carvers in that I think the pattern has real potential as early as late next week. I am excited to track one more snow/ice event and then I will be ready for spring.  I thought this last storm got it all out of me, but evidently I can be a little greedy, PLUS I really want more in the TN Valley to experience a snow event (especially the Nashville area)

 

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