Yorkpa25 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Temperature better start falling fast. Rain falling right now. I don't see the morning commute around 7 am being bad at all. Ground is wet already, temperature is supposed to be 33 or 32 by then with snow falling. It's just such a marginal situation and living here my whole life, york does not do well in marginal situations. Hope everything works out though, could be the deepest snow all winter. Sunrise will hurt accumulations also "canderson". WOW THIS HAS BUST WRITTEN ALL OVER IT for Adams,york,lancaster counties. 1-3 inches. 39 degrees raining at 2 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42674-central-pa-and-the-fringes-february-2014/?p=2719107 Whoops, must have forgotten about that. My bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Not sure why the north folks are crying? 2 more chances for them. Keyword, bolded here. No guarantees. I think if folks missing out to the North on this one were guaranteed 6-8 on Wednesday everyone would be holding hands singing kumbaya. Sharp cutoffs are pretty frustrating for those on the outside looking in, but at one time or another we have all been there, getting ponded, or missing out so it all evens out over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Temperature better start falling fast. Rain falling right now. I don't see the morning commute around 7 am being bad at all. Ground is wet already, temperature is supposed to be 33 or 32 by then with snow falling. It's just such a marginal situation and living here my whole life, york does not do well in marginal situations. This is not marginal up here for the early am as you describe. If you were near BWI I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Temperature better start falling fast. Rain falling right now. I don't see the morning commute around 7 am being bad at all. Ground is wet already, temperature is supposed to be 33 or 32 by then with snow falling. It's just such a marginal situation and living here my whole life, york does not do well in marginal situations. Hope everything works out though, could be the deepest snow all winter.Sunrise in York will hurt snow accumulations, it's February so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Snow pack too, Tuesday's highs are going to underperform, the thermal mass of 3-10" of wet dense snow is just incredible. No doubt. CAD plus snow cover is just a great duo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RAP did edge back north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sunrise in York will hurt snow accumulations, it's February so yeah. Don't get me started about the sun angle. Winter always ends for me on Dec. 21 or 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 38 degrees..calm wind kinda misty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is a hair north... like, a tiny tiny bit. But definitely an improvement nonetheless, esp in South Central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is a hair north... like, a tiny tiny bit. But definitely an improvement nonetheless, esp in South Central PA Gives UNV roughly the same qpf as 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Sure...I'll take 14" To be fair, this includes the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is a hair north... like, a tiny tiny bit. But definitely an improvement nonetheless, esp in South Central PA how does the wed storm look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 because I know this will upset a few of you... winter storm warning up for new york city... lol 38 and light rain here just northwest of Harrisburg... down from 41 at 9pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS says 81 NW, hope you have a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 how does the wed storm look? Sleety for us, ice south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 how does the wed storm look? Compared to the 18z GFS, slightly stronger, slightly colder, more precip. So all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Gotta watch the warm nose aloft at 57 to 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Compared to the 18z GFS, slightly stronger, slightly colder, more precip. So all good. This is the warmest 850s get on the 00z GFS: Maybe there's a warmer layer at another level (though based on soundings I had seen a couple days ago, it looked like the warmest level was around 800-850mb)? But given that 850s are at or below 0C for all but one 3-hourly frame, I (again) don't see what the pessimism is about. Looks like mostly snow with maybe some sleet up here in "true central" PA. EDIT: Just looked at twisterdata soundings for State College from the 18z GFS, and indeed the warmest level is around 800-850mb. Even on the 18z GFS that was around 1°C. Taken verbatim, I'd guess that would just mean a snow/sleet mix (maybe mostly sleet for a brief 1-3 hour window). Since the 00z GFS is ever-so-slightly cooler, and the GFS is one of the warmer of the believable models, I don't see what all the fuss is about. I guess just pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is the warmest 850s get on the 00z GFS: 850s.png Maybe there's a warmer layer at another level (though based on soundings I had seen a couple days ago, it looked like the warmest level was around 800-850mb)? But given that 850s are at or below 0C for all but one 3-hourly frame, I (again) don't see what the pessimism is about. Looks like mostly snow with maybe some sleet up here in "true central" PA. We've got to get that H85 low south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just thought of something... this rain/drizzle/fog is going to be great/horrible when the snow starts falling then freezes it. Black Ice undercoating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We've got to get that H85 low south of us. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 We've got to get that H85 low south of us. I was under the impression that you want the 850mb low right on top of you in this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 33ºF outside right now, storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 AccuWx just upped State College to 3-6", and 4-8" for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I was under the impression that you want the 850mb low right on top of you in this part of the country. I thought you want the low south of you, otherwise the door is open to warm air to flood in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RAP seems pretty locked in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 RAP seems pretty locked in now. Another little bump north...seems to have UNV in the 4-6" zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 33ºF outside right now, storm cancel It's the SUN ANGLE! No one is safe even at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I thought you want the low south of you, otherwise the door is open to warm air to flood in. You definitely want the surface low south of you (and that seems to be likely at this point), but I've always been told you want the 850 low to track right over you (best lift and all that jazz). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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