PennMan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Alright guys, gonna start up a new thread. We have three threats to track over the next 7-10 days, so let's keep things on topic. Anything not directly weather related goes in the banter thread or I will move it there. Also, watch what maps you are posting. Anything from behind a paywall is off limits, but you can describe what it shows. Finally...no whining! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Posted this to the old thread, but will post again. Monday's threat -- SREFs are wetter, but more consolidated in the north. Members are zero-ing in on a solution, but the 0.5" QPF line inches northward. Also notice, a higher concentration of high QPF values just NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like watches will likely be issued by 12z package today. Hopefully it gets cranking early so work will close. Don't want to be driving around without a 4X4 in this plaster job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like watches will likely be issued by 12z package today. Hopefully it gets cranking early so work will close. Don't want to be driving around without a 4X4 in this plaster job. Watches? Or advisories? I have to admit, this 2/3 threat came out of nowhere for me, but then I worked a bunch of 13 hour days last week and wasn't really paying attention as it was shower, dinner, then bed for me after I got home each night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think for York, Adams, Lancaster and Franklin, watches are a good bet. I am sure State College will wait for 12Z cycle to run before they pull any trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Don't forget guys, we are not talking 15 or 20 to 1 with this storm, more likely 10 or 12. So it will take .5 or more to get into warning territory, which for border counties is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think for York, Adams, Lancaster and Franklin, watches are a good bet. I am sure State College will wait for 12Z cycle to run before they pull any trigger. Their AFD doesn't seem impressed with snow totals. They mention 1-3" along the border counties. Unless there's more of a shift north with the 12z runs, I doubt they will issue watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Their AFD doesn't seem impressed with snow totals. They mention 1-3" along the border counties. Unless there's more of a shift north with the 12z runs, I doubt they will issue watches. I agree. Even a bump up to 3-5" only gets us a high end advisory. Things could always trend better with more .5 qpf amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Watches? Or advisories? I have to admit, this 2/3 threat came out of nowhere for me, but then I worked a bunch of 13 hour days last week and wasn't really paying attention as it was shower, dinner, then bed for me after I got home each night.Be careful this looks like it could be another screw job where we have light snow and 1" while we watch York get pasted. We need another 50-100 mile shift north. I am so done with the fringe crap all winter. I seriously would rather not another flake unless I'm going to see at least a few hours of heavy snow and 4"+. I have no interest wasting my time on 1-2" unless it falls in 15 mins or something exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 1-3 seems very low and a potential disaster for school districts making decisions (along the southern tier). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I agree with psuhoffman, nobody north of Harrisburg should be getting excited about this potential. It's another tight gradient bugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Be careful this looks like it could be another screw job where we have light snow and 1" while we watch York get pasted. We need another 50-100 mile shift north. I am so done with the fringe crap all winter. I seriously would rather not another flake unless I'm going to see at least a few hours of heavy snow and 4"+. I have no interest wasting my time on 1-2" unless it falls in 15 mins or something exciting Yeah, this is shaping up to be a Manchester special. That area will hit 40" after this one. You'll get your snow sooner or later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lol...don't worry we get an inch of freezing rain on Tuesday aftn haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sweet, another tight gradient! It's been quite a while! This is ridiculous... Most storms have a tight gradient. Our problem is it keeps setting up in the same spot just south of us. This one is trending north a little sooner then the others so I think we have a shot in central pa this time but the pessimist in me fears another letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lol...don't worry we get an inch of freezing rain on Tuesday aftn haha.i liked the look on the euro for a nice 5 hour thump snow tues night in east central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Be careful this looks like it could be another screw job where we have light snow and 1" while we watch York get pasted. We need another 50-100 mile shift north. I am so done with the fringe crap all winter. I seriously would rather not another flake unless I'm going to see at least a few hours of heavy snow and 4"+. I have no interest wasting my time on 1-2" unless it falls in 15 mins or something exciting LOL...I didn't know who to quote. I agree with you though psu. I'm pretty sick of the 1-2 inch slopfests myself. A lot of messy misery for very little reward. I have so much salt on my work truck that it's starting to peel off like paint. It's been too cold to even try to rinse it off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM is getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Eastern, I hope you cash in on this one. East of you has been the hotspot, hopefully Franklin Co. can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The latest run of the RPM is farther north, and notably LOL-worthy. There IS solid precip as far south as IAD, but this run of the RPM keeps the rain/snow line in northern MD...which is why the totals farther south are cut down significantly. A trend is a trend, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Changing the topic a bit, this was from the 6z GFS for UNV: 140206/2100Z 135 30010KT 11.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140207/0000Z 138 29007KT 5.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140207/0300Z 141 31007KT -0.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140207/0600Z 144 30006KT -6.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140207/0900Z 147 29004KT -11.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140207/1200Z 150 28004KT -14.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140207/1500Z 153 28004KT -2.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140207/1800Z 156 26004KT 5.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140207/2100Z 159 25003KT 7.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140208/0000Z 162 VRB01KT -18.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140208/0300Z 165 VRB01KT -18.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0140208/0600Z 168 VRB02KT -16.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 (the wxbell guys found out that someone on social media was posting their euro maps as if it were his own... they were not too happy and do not wish for their paywall maps to be posted anywhere so we probably shouldnt be posting them on here too) This is only for Euro data. Ryan M said it is ok to share all other data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The latest run of the RPM is farther north, and notably LOL-worthy. There IS solid precip as far south as IAD, but this run of the RPM keeps the rain/snow line in northern MD...which is why the totals farther south are cut down significantly. A trend is a trend, I suppose. Capture.JPG 10.4" here. lol I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 we still have 36 hours of trending. IF 12z GFS continues a north trend and is wetter, then it's just a matter of how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 RGEM would be a solid hit for southern tier. Maybe even some into central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Now that there is a slight north trend, state college might pay more attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wxbell should focus more on making their maps more realistic. They're plain awful. But they tell some what they want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Now that there is a slight north trend, state college might pay more attention. Yes now we should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wxbell should focus more on making their maps more realistic. They're plain awful. But they tell some what they want to hear. Weather bell maps are just fine. If you mean the snow maps, ya they need a little work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Weather bell maps are just fine. If you mean the snow maps, ya they need a little work.Go read the OT thread...not just snow maps.They tell the weenies what they want to hear so they keep getting posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 RGEM cuts off right before it was about to get the goods going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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