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POWERSTROKE

February Banter

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RDU: 70%

CLT: 90%

GSO: 90%

RWI: 50%

FAY: 30%

PGV: 10% ---> its pretty close though based on bufkit data, north of FAY and west of 95, odds go up quick

We're really close. I forgot to add PVG. I'm a bit higher for FAY, as I was counting on the east/west gradient more than the north/south one down there. I hope with future runs that we can increase the percentages all around.

It feels like the risk is for a more NW type track rather than the opposite, which would increase the risk of more rn. Maybe that's just me having bad memories. But if the storm gets really amped, it's hard to believe that will result in a more eastward solution. Usually, big storms trend west.

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I'm going with mostly snow in Oconee, Pickens and Gville with some sleet mixing in at times. Starting with 6-8" and hoping to increase that!

Thanks! Seems reasonable and probably conservative, hopefully ! I'm still concerned that the tues overrunning , even if its over us will be rain. I've been saying for a couple of days, today's AFD afternoon package mentions exactly that. If it comes in Tuesday am at daybreak, I think we will be snow. If its mon afternoon =rain

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Thinking about creating a dedicated banter thread for the storm and pinning it, with the hope it cuts down on crap IMBY posts, thoughts?  Brainstorm over-performed, title in hand...

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Going to be back in Detroit this week on business. Thinking about quitting my job

Was planning to leave for Ohio at noon tomorrow for work. Going to look give the models and forecasts one final look before I make a decision to leave or use vacation to experience a winter storm at home for once since it's been since 2010 for me. If they show 6"+ snow/sleet, I'm all in and staying til Thursday afternoon at the earliest.

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Thinking about creating a dedicated banter thread for the storm and pinning it, with the hope it cuts down on crap IMBY posts, thoughts? Brainstorm over-performed, title in hand...

Sure. Call it something like Cataclysmic Bust to balance out the other thread.

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That sucks, Grit! There is a possible solution, however, that would negate the frustration of not being able to be here during a huge winter storm, but I'm not going to say it.

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We're really close. I forgot to add PVG. I'm a bit higher for FAY, as I was counting on the east/west gradient more than the north/south one down there. I hope with future runs that we can increase the percentages all around.

It feels like the risk is for a more NW type track rather than the opposite, which would increase the risk of more rn. Maybe that's just me having bad memories. But if the storm gets really amped, it's hard to believe that will result in a more eastward solution. Usually, big storms trend west.

 

Yes you are, and the odds this is an all SN event for RDU is less than ten percent imo, HP is sliding offshore, far from ideal, this has the flavor of a HKY big dog per Allan's case studies.  That would imply it rides up the EC, Cat 3 NESIS type deal, my schedule is slammed this week, but I will be taking the machete to the calender tomorrow, possible chase type if we get a full on phase with prob of seeing 24" within a 6 hour drive.  Best guess is that any chance for that will reside in S NE which is a no go.  

 

The odds of a perfect CMC phase working out day 3 is slim, usually it comes in late, or early.  The trough axis is anything but locked, right now is appears the dominant SLP will track from Pensacola to Savannah, then offshore taking a position just of the VA Capes.  I would keep an eye on whether this is consolidated, or strung out like the GFS indicates, EC maybe hinting at.  That would mean northern stream is late.  Over-running needs to over-perform because right now, that is where most of RDU's SN is coming from.

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European has had this storm for 4 days,leading the way as usual.Canadian has been close as well.

Ride em to the finish line.

 

I think you left out your #sarcasmfont.

 

At least I hope you did  :whistle:

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Speaking specifically to my area, this has reached the point of being comical for the media outlets. We've watched this for almost week now, and it was clear days ago that this storm could be more significant. It was a safe call at first, but this is getting ridiculous. A.] There's no way this will be just an 1 1/2" event. More snow/less ice. B.] The differences between local outlets is disturbing. They are all looking at THE SAME DATA. C.] I understand the line between a safe call and a gutsy call. It's time to get past the copy/paste of NWS and the timid station status quo. I'm starting to wonder what exactly the local meteorologists are looking at.

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Is this winter's last gasp? Are there any other opportunities for the SE in the long range? With all of this talk of thunder sleet and thunder snow one would think that Old man Winter might have a few more tricks up his sleeve!   :snowwindow:

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Gasp! Heat wave next week

We are most likely done here unless an anomoly occurs. I have seen some good March surprise storms in the last 34 years of living here, as well as April once believe it or not, but not feeling it this year. Intuition I guess. That's the kicker about this last storm. Intuition told me we would get screwed again, but I ignored it and bought into the hype. Won't let that happen again anytime soon.

 

I just wish I knew what it was about that Jan 88 storm that just can't seem to replicate here. I think the snow gods used their magic powers to remove the invisible dome shield that covers Greenville and Pickens county. Let's call it the screw dome.

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