February Forecast Discussion

[jm1220]

can you please put into words all the delicious things this map may entail? I would like to see it in writing  

Weak west based -NAO, split flow with active southern stream and weak SE ridge w/ -EPO and -AO?…is that a good start? still learning here

The NAO here actually looks to be east based-notice the ridging near Iceland and the PV sitting near Baffin Bay. There's no real SE Ridge signal, which is good, but also it looks to be a fast zonal type pattern where there would be very cold air over Canada and the northern tier, but no major storminess since there doesn't seem to be any real connection to the tropics. However, this is ensemble guidance 2 weeks out, so it's likely very excessively smoothed out.

[PB GFI]

You probably couldn't ask for better agreement between the GEFS and Euro ensembles at 360 hrs.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_61.png

Finally they r on the same page

[BxEngine]

North of nyc will still be ok with that scenerio

Seriously, who left their sock here?

[+SNfreak21]

The NAO here actually looks to be east based-notice the ridging near Iceland and the PV sitting near Baffin Bay. There's no real SE Ridge signal, which is good, but also it looks to be a fast zonal type pattern where there would be very cold air over Canada and the northern tier, but no major storminess since there doesn't seem to be any real connection to the tropics. However, this is ensemble guidance 2 weeks out, so it's likely very excessively smoothed out.

Feb 1994 had an East based -NAO

[bluewave]

Finally they r on the same page

 

I would probably shift the JMA February trough a little further east if those higher heights over toward the the 

Davis Strait verify. We would easily finish February with below normal temperatures and above normal

snowfall. But you can see how the JMA that came out on the the 17th had the right idea of above normal

heights trying to make it over toward Greenland.

 

[PB GFI]

I would probably shift the JMA February trough a little further east if those higher heights over toward the the 

Davis Straight verify. We would easily finish February with below normal temperatures and above normal

snowfall. But you can see how the JMA that came out on the the 17th had the right idea of above normal

heights trying to make it over toward Greenland.

 

Y201401.D1100.png

When r the new JMA weeklies outb

[bluewave]

When r the new JMA weeklies outb

 

The new weeklies should be out on the 30th.

[PB GFI]

GFS still likes the SB

[WintersGrasp]

The GFS out past 200 hours is simply epic

[EasternLI]

18z GEFS continue a sweet look.....This is the end....hr 384

[PB GFI]

Wintry weekend 6z GFS has 2 systems. 1 early Saturday , 1 Sunday

[rcad1]

PB GFI you think it's snow or rain for the coast? or is it still to early to tell??

[REDMK6GLI]

PB GFI you think it's snow or rain for the coast? or is it still to early to tell??

MJO will have say. We want phase 7 to keep the SE ridge at bay. If it goes to phase 6 we'll be more wet than white. We'll no lack of moisture thats for sure. If we get a MJO phase 7 and also some blocking developing over greenland that will help us get and maybe stay on right side of gradient for an extended period of time

[MJO812]

7/8/1 are the phases that we want.

[PB GFI]

PB GFI you think it's snow or rain for the coast? or is it still to early to tell??

Not sure , I like the idea of a wave moving East  out of the Panhandle  and exiting off the Delmarva .

SWFE like to snow on the front end and end as drizzle as the WAA finally takes over at the surface .

Of course if the Euro`s right and the MJO is in 6 then  it`s 50 . 

I like the GFS its really been steady with the idea .

[PB GFI]

I would not  bet any warm card , this is going to keep on keeping on .

 

 

[bluewave]

The 0z guidance is more amplified so we get a wetter solution. We want a weaker wave coming 

east so it doesn't pump the SE Ridge ahead of it. This could easily go either way at this

point depending on how amped up the pattern verifies. But either way, the storm should

drag down colder air behind it.

 

[PB GFI]

The 0z guidance is more amplified so we get a wetter solution. We want a weaker wave coming 

east so it doesn't pump the SE Ridge ahead of it. This could easily go either way at this

point depending on how amped up the pattern verifies.

 

Geopotential3250032hPa32and32Temperature32at3285032hPa_North32America_216.gif

I can it happening if its amped . The Euro and  some GFS ensemble members  think it cuts . Will be rooting

for an innocuous wave .

[bluewave]

I can it happening if its amped . The Euro and  some GFS ensemble members  think it cuts . Will be rooting

for an innocuous wave .

 

Yeah, It also seems like the guidance yesterday was a little stronger on the blocking extending over to Davis Strait

than the overnight runs. I really like to see a strong enough Davis Strait block to prevent amped systems from

cutting. 

[PB GFI]

Yeah, It also seems like the guidance yesterday was a little stronger on the blocking extending over to Davis Strait

than the overnight runs. I really like to see a strong enough Davis Strait block to prevent amped systems from

cutting.

If the vortex is back in the Feb 5 thru 15 th pperiod it may offer some confluence thru the lakes

[bluewave]

If the vortex is back in the Feb 5 thru 15 th pperiod it may offer some confluence thru the lakes

 

That storm looks to drag cold air in behind it so the next storm track after that one may be a colder one for us.

Hopefully, it works out like December where we had a mix of rain and snow events  but was still able to finish the 

month with above normal snowfall on a gradient pattern. The Euro has more cross polar later in its run.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[REDMK6GLI]

That storm looks to drag cold air in behind it so the next storm track after that one may be a colder one for us.

Hopefully, it works out like December where we had a mix of rain and snow events but was still able to finish the

month with above normal snowfall on a gradient pattern.

Im cautiously enthuastic about the upcoming febraury gradient pattern. However, think we dont more than a SECS out of this pattern unless a pure STJ driven moisture laden weak low rides up the gradient at the right time with us on the cold side of it. Two keys im looking for to get white over wet is the MJO to stay around phase 7/8/1 and not 6 and if we can get the davis straight blocking to actually help us. Getting the block to stay established would be nice as well.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

In a pattern like this, it's very dangerous to be just to the north of the R/S line without a proper cold source. This is why I'm nervous about next month. One slip up and it could cost us the rest of the winter.

[bluewave]

Im cautiously enthuastic about the upcoming febraury gradient pattern. However, think we dont more than a SECS out of this pattern unless a pure STJ driven moisture laden weak low rides up the gradient at the right time with us on the cold side of it. Two keys im looking for to get white over wet is the MJO to stay around phase 7/8/1 and not 6 and if we can get the davis straight blocking to actually help us. Getting the block to stay established would be nice as well.

 

The NAEFS have been too warm this winter, but they are showing a solid push of Arctic cold coming south day 8-15.

So after the early February storm, it should get very cold again as that Arctic air eventually spills east.

 

 

 

[REDMK6GLI]

In a pattern like this, it's very dangerous to be just to the north of the R/S line without a proper cold source. This is why I'm nervous about next month. One slip up and it could cost us the rest of the winter.

Your dead on there. Its going to be a fragile setup for sure, not very many times is out area on the right side of the gradient for an extended period of time. These patterns typically benenfit SNE/north

[jm1220]

In a pattern like this, it's very dangerous to be just to the north of the R/S line without a proper cold source. This is why I'm nervous about next month. One slip up and it could cost us the rest of the winter.

It seems like there's some hope of higher heights building into Greenland and Baffin Bay next month, which would keep the gradient south of us and make for better storm opportunities. But I agree, in a gradient pattern, it's usually wet for us without any resistance to the north against storms cutting.

[+SNfreak21]

I still think February 1994 is a top analog the for this upcoming pattern (although the trough axis and Alaskan ridge is further east which is better for resistance if SE ridge tries to flex). Feb. 21" in Central Park in Feb 1994, so even if we get half of that as snow it would still be a decent end to the winter. CNJ/SNJ is always the wildcard for this type of gradient pattern (look at 12/19/08, 12/14/13 as well including 94')

[Stormlover74]

I still think February 1994 is a top analog the for this upcoming pattern. Feb. 21" in Central Park in Feb 1994, so even if we get half of that as snow it would still be a decent end to the winter. CNJ/SNJ is always the wildcard for this type of gradient pattern (look at 12/19/08, 12/14/13 as well including 94')

 

Yeah EWR had 31.8" that month, Philly 13.2". Still good but once north of 195 there was a huge difference in snowfall.

[bluewave]

I still think February 1994 is a top analog the for this upcoming pattern (although the trough axis and Alaskan ridge is further east which is better for resistance if SE ridge tries to flex). Feb. 21" in Central Park in Feb 1994, so even if we get half of that as snow it would still be a decent end to the winter. CNJ/SNJ is always the wildcard for this type of gradient pattern (look at 12/19/08, 12/14/13 as well including 94')

 

The whole month all came down to 2-8 to 2-12 when we picked up 21.8" at Central Park. The key was that the two

systems in quick succession were not very amplified and were overrunning events with weak lows.

Those two systems would have cut if they were more wound up.

 

 

[PB GFI]

2- 8 - 2 -12 94  huh ? 

Can this get any closer if we get precip  ?