rossi Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Thats the GFS almost 5 days away - lets see how many times it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I believe that's all from Friday. 850s are too warm for any frozen at the coast from the 2nd part which doesn't begin until Saturday afternoon Yes thats from the first wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looking at the disturbance of the CA coast and the elongated PV moving towards Eastern Canada and not north is a good sign so far on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 All out Blizzard for the central Plains on Tuesday. Gradient pattern preventing this from cutting to the lakes. Snow by Tuesday night for our area, low over Western Kentucky. Low ends up too far north and west, heavy rain, but this will change. We need to get this inside the truncation period before we have a better idea. By tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Note confluence from SE ridge and PV, epic gradient setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 All out Blizzard for the central Plains on Tuesday. Gradient pattern preventing this from cutting to the lakes. Snow by Tuesday night for our area, low over Western Kentucky. Low ends up too far north and west, heavy rain, but this will change. Hurt by truncation this run. Or it won't change and we get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Note confluence from SE ridge and PV, epic gradient setting upFrom the looks of it we'd be on the warm side of it and congrats NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 1st system looks more like Snow , the 2nd looks warmer . Lets see how strong and how much separation between the 2 there is before we worry . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 From the looks of it we'd be on the warm side of it and congrats NE. Marginal ... thats 5k feet , 2M temps are in the 30`s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 All out Blizzard for the central Plains on Tuesday. Gradient pattern preventing this from cutting to the lakes. Snow by Tuesday night for our area, low over Western Kentucky. Low ends up too far north and west, heavy rain, but this will change. We need to get this inside the truncation period before we have a better idea. By tomorrow. That's never a good sign for us in any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Or it won't change and we get rain The ensembles keep the track of the low to our south. With that type of gradient pattern no way does the low track to Upstate NY. It's our saving grace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Marginal ... thats 5k feet , 2M temps are in the 30`s Again people get fooled by 500mb maps, it has snowed in a gradient pattern like this in Feb 1994 with heights as high as 564dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That's never a good sign for us in any storm. It's fine in this case because of the gradient pattern in place. Without that we would have had no chance. The low is going to track just to the south of the boundary and the precip shield is going to be a long that track and to its north. This is a pretty classic setup for over running precipitation here. I wouldn't pay attention to the exact details, the pattern is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This looks very similar to 2/8/1994, remarkable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Should we somehow manage to miss out on the 4th/5th system a train of storms follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This looks very similar to 2/8/1994, remarkable Yeh they were back to back as well, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's fine in this case because of the gradient pattern in place. Without that we would have had no chance. The low is going to track just to the south of the boundary and the precip shield is going to be a long that track and to its north. This is a pretty classic setup for over running precipitation here. I wouldn't pay attention to the exact details, the pattern is awesome. Great point. Now if it does snow during that period, I hope it's of the powdery type, not the wet slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 This looks very similar to 2/8/1994, remarkable Just for reference, I'm not forecasting a repeat event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Where's earthlight and Forky? If they're not on board I'm not biting It's a day 8-9 system. They usually don't concern themselves too much with these until they get inside day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The Friday system is sort of crappy version of 1/27/94 and 2/8/94 combined, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The whole GFS run up to 384hr still gives NYC 6+", there will be a train of overrunning systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We are some real weenies analyzing the OP GFS this closely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 Still too far off for any pinpoint forecasting thats for sure. We still have to establish some blocking preferably west based and favorable MJO phase 7/8/1 to actually to be on the colder side of the gradient, none of which is set in stone at this point. GFS run was loaded with opportunities but it is just that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 3-4" of total QPF on the 12z GFS run and that was with a crappy track for the system on the 4th. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12z GEFS coming in, lets see if it is colder and more suppressed with the SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Still too far off for any pinpoint forecasting thats for sure. We still have to establish some blocking preferably west based and favorable MJO phase 7/8/1 to actually to be on the colder side of the gradient, none of which is set in stone at this point. GFS run was loaded with opportunities but it is just that It's a gradient pattern, we get sandwiched between the SE ridge and the Polar Vortex. Do you know what that means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Note confluence from SE ridge and PV, epic gradient setting up We want the heights over northern Greenland and Baffin Bay to be as high as possible and push south into the region that would really benefit us. If that happens, the trough bringing the storminess can get as strong as it wants, but it will only be able to push so far north and the storm will have to re-develop along the coast and the cold air would be preserved. But if the high heights there don't pan out, I could see cutters and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 12Z GFS looks kinda of ugly for Superbowl. Light Snow to sleet to freezing rain .... Sure it will change about 10 more times before then but would not be fun to sit outside in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's a gradient pattern, we get sandwiched between the SE ridge and the Polar Vortex. Do you know what that means? Yes i do a predominant overrunning pattern that can produce tons of moisture concentrated along the gradient. I was just referencing to what would help maximize our chances of being on the whiter side of the gradient yanks. Sorry if i came off a debbie downer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The 6z GEFS was colder and had higher heights in Greenland than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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