1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models

[LovingGulfLows]

I truly believe those of us well inland should keep their excitement to a minimum because this very well could be one of those historic events where the coast/lower piedmont get drilled. It's rare but it does happen and to me, given the setup and the amount of cold involved, I think odds favor the coast or areas further south than us in the interior. That doesn't mean it won't shift northwest but i think there is too much thought that it will at the moment just because that is what we are used to.

 

I'm not. I'll just see what happens over the next few days. It's like the time some of us really need that NW trend, it's doesn't happen and that would suck really bad if it comes to fruition. I've always thought Atlanta never seem to be in a good position to ever really get big snows unless it's the exceptionally rare storm like 1993 that happens once every century.

[dsaur]

Yep, Shawn,  I'd have to stay up late, and hope the whole thing doesn't sag south, but there is precip in Ala, I expect, and it just goes to show if you keep looking into next week you might miss the bump on your nose, lol.  I think I'll have a few chances before next week to see something.  I know clouds and 24 isn't something to dismiss out of hand.  Just don't know that I want to stay up all night to see a few pellets...I think better is coming.  T

[griteater]

Sitting inland here, regardless of what the Euro shows tonight, I want to see the GFS come on board as its positive tilt, progressive look is the problem scenario in this setup.  The GFS is at its best in northern stream dominated flow like this.  If this were a wave coming east out of California in the southern stream, I wouldn't have that opinion...the table would be flipped (leaning less on the GFS).  The 18z GFS Ensemble members weren't very enthused with inland precip either...00z members not out yet.  If I were closer to the coast, I'd like where I sit right now...long way to go

[dsaur]

I'm not. I'll just see what happens over the next few days. It's like the time some of us really need that NW trend, it's doesn't happen and that would suck really bad if it comes to fruition. I've always thought Atlanta never seem to be in a good position to ever really get big snows unless it's the exceptionally rare storm like 1993 that happens once every century.

Atl is too far north, lol.  I've seen my biggest snows since I moved down here.  Closer to the furnace, but closer to the moisture   Trouble is most of the big snow are spring snows, and pretty much useless after a few hours....but great while they fall.   T

[Lookout]

I'm not. I'll just see what happens over the next few days. It's like the time some of us really need that NW trend, it's doesn't happen and that would suck really bad if it comes to fruition. I've always thought Atlanta never seem to be in a good position to ever really get big snows unless it's the exceptionally rare storm like 1993 that happens once every century.

It really is in a bad spot. I've always been amazed at the lack of really big snow storms in atlanta..instead 2 or 3 inches is considered huge lol

 

And for this..I have no words.

 

Well actually maybe two...suicide watch

 

Even brownsville and northern mexico get in on the fun on this run And least we forget the oil rigs out in the gulf of mexico

 

 

[griteater]

lookout - that sfc low track off the SE coast on the CMC looks very similar to the 12z Euro Ensemble Mean track

[Lookout]

lookout - that sfc low track on the off the SE coast on the CMC looks very similar to the 12z Euro Ensemble Mean track

the canadian is just insane. major ice storm for north florida (and mexico) lol I know it's probably over done here but it sure is something to look at.

 

First snow

 

 

sleet-water equivalent

 

 

Freezing rain. 0.50 to  0.75 of an inch of ice in north florida!

 

[JoshM]

Wow that Canadian is being very friendly... Wants everyone in on the party. I'm betting the euro will be a tad east compared to 12z

[Shawn]

Euro rolling on out; here we go guys!

[Buddy1987]

Euro rolling on out; here we go guys!

Fingers crossed! Hey do you have a subscription or do you use the instant weather maps Euro maps?

[Disc]

@ hr84 moisture breaking out across the gulf states..

 

EDIT: not associated with low later on. appears to dissipate.

[Lookout]

0z euro is bone dry. Not even the coast gets anything through 120

[Disc]

Lookout, on 24 Jan 2014 - 01:22 AM, said:

0z euro is bone dry. Not even the coast gets anything through 120

 

Glad you beat me to it. WxBell is painfully slow..

[Buddy1987]

0z euro is bone dry. Not even the coast gets anything through 120

Ouch!! Was it the Euro or GFS that tended to lose storms in this timeframe and then reintroduce them around the day 3? I guess thats all we can hope for at this point.

[Shawn]

Fingers crossed! Hey do you have a subscription or do you use the instant weather maps Euro maps?

 

sub on wxbell.

[Lookout]

Ouch!! Was it the Euro or GFS that tended to lose storms in this timeframe and then reintroduce them around the day 3? I guess thats all we can hope for at this point.

hour 132, lot more precip now for the coastal areas. around 0.25 liquid. bone dry just a few miles inland though.

[goduke]

Crash and burn... damn we just cant buy any significant winter storms. wth!

[ILMRoss]

Is this a case where the entire system is drier than before? Or has it just been shifted east with much higher qpf just off the coast?

[Lookout]

hour 138 nice hit for eastern nc/coast. As much as 0.75 falls near wilmington..otherwise, around half inch coastal areas of nc down to the northern coast of sc. The total cutoff line runs from south of augusta to near or south/east of columbia to rdu.

 

around 0.25 for ga coast/including savannah. Maybe 0.50 for charleston..0.75 from wilmington to the outerbanks. very sharp gradient as you move inland. A few miles makes a huge difference.

[Buddy1987]

hour 132, lot more precip now for the coastal areas. around 0.25 liquid. bone dry just a few miles inland though.

Yea this one is going the wrong direction fast. Granted you have your couple models (Canadien and CMC) which arent the best to have to rely on, however it is one model run needless to say and in a couple hours the Euro ensembles could tell a whole different story as the GFS ensembles did earlier. I guess well have to wait and see. Not really feeling it up this way if this trend continues into Saturday. I still feel its fair to say that as we relaized with this clipper that was a major overperformer for the Mid Atlantic you never know what can happen. We've seen plenty of times where a shortwave will come on shore and get better sampling and bam you are talkng about a big dog forming.

[Disc]

Eastern NC does pretty good still. As Lookout noted, very sharp cutoff.

[Shawn]

Eh, less of a hit.

 

The thing to take away from this run is there is still snow on the OP.  EPS members will once again; look amazing as they looked great when the OP had no snow really.

[griteater]

00z Euro - wave doesn't dig as far southwest and the flow along the east coast doesn't relax as much, compared to the 12z Euro.  Subtle differences, but key differences...long way to go, enjoy the ride.

[Shawn]

Coasts still look okay if you think it's surely snow instead of ZR/Sleet down into SC especially.  Still not bad guys.. the storms there..

[Disc]

FWIW.. and with that I'm hittin' the hay.

 

[Lookout]

You know ratios look fairly high along the coast. 850mb temps are around -8c (as low as -12c on the back edge in eastern nc)  with surface temps well down into the 20s even along the beach. So this is still a big storm for those areas. Cold just crushes it for us folks further inland.

[goduke]

FWIW.. and with that I'm hittin' the hay.

 

Might have to visit the family in South Port NC.

[Shawn]

You know ratios look fairly high along the coast. 850mb temps are around -8c (as low as -12c on the back edge in eastern nc)  with surface temps well down into the 20s even along the beach. So this is still a big storm for those areas. Cold just crushes it for us folks further inland.

 

Atleast this OP gives you something; lol.  This is going to change very much over the next few days.  EPS will be gorgeous for many; I promise.

[GaWx]

A.  0Z Euro: still has the two systems that have been followed:

 

1.  Although there's somewhat there's less total QPF vs. the 12Z THU run for SAV-CHS (~0.40"-0.50" instead of ~0.60-65"), there's way more legit snow and almost no ZR/IP on the 0Z Euro because this one is quite a bit colder at 850 mb. The prior run had a very sig. ZR/IP dominating the precip. due to 850's being +1 to +4 C for much of the storm while the surface was 32 or less, and it left no more than ~0.05" to 0.15" qpf as snow (~0.5-1.5" of snow..I'm ignoring the way overblown clown, which had ~4-6"), practically all of the precip. on this run falls with 850's 0 C or colder in addition to temp.'s near 32 or older. As a result, this run's wintry precip. is practically all snow with ~4"/5" for SAV/CHS vs. 0.5"/1.5" on the 12Z Euro. Also, Waycross, which also had mainly a sig. ZR/IP on the 12Z Euro, gets mainly snow on the 0Z run with ~2.5" of snow from 0.25" of qpf vs. ~0.5" of snow from ~0.55" of qpf.

 

2. On 1/31, there is a small area of 1-1.5" of snow from Athens to the northern burbs of ATL and westward to the AL line.

 

 

B. 0Z GFS ensemble mean is sig. wetter than the prior three runs for the coast of GA/SC/NC with 0.50-0.75" of qpf vs. no more than ~0.50" on prior runs.

 

C. Regarding the crazy run of the 0Z Fri Crazy Uncle (very unreliable Canadian), which gives an amazing 12-16" for much of the GA/SC/NC coasts and a big hit for N FL, that would be approaching the maxima produced by the January 1800 monster if it were to somehow get even close to verifying.

[Shawn]

A.  0Z Euro: still has the two systems that have been followed:

 

1.  Although there's somewhat there's less total QPF vs. the 12Z THU run for SAV-CHS (~0.40"-0.50" instead of ~0.60-65"), there's way more legit snow and almost no ZR/IP on the 0Z Euro because this one is quite a bit colder at 850 mb. The prior run had a very sig. ZR/IP dominating the precip. due to 850's being +1 to +4 C for much of the storm while the surface was 32 or less, and it left no more than ~0.05" to 0.15" qpf as snow (~0.5-1.5" of snow..I'm ignoring the way overblown clown, which had ~4-6"), practically all of the precip. on this run falls with 850's 0 C or colder in addition to temp.'s near 32 or older. As a result, this run's wintry precip. is practically all snow with ~4"/5" for SAV/CHS vs. 0.5"/1.5" on the 12Z Euro. Also, Waycross, which also had mainly a sig. ZR/IP on the 12Z Euro, gets mainly snow on the 0Z run with ~2.5" of snow from 0.25" of qpf vs. ~0.5" of snow from ~0.55" of qpf.

 

2. On 1/31, there is a small area of 1-1.5" of snow from Athens to the northern burbs of ATL and westward to the AL line.

 

 

B. 0Z GFS ensemble mean is sig. wetter than the prior three runs for the coast of GA/SC/NC with 0.50-0.75" of qpf vs. no more than ~0.50" on prior runs.

 

C. Regarding the crazy run of the 0Z Fri Crazy Uncle (very unreliable Canadian), which gives an amazing 12-16" for much of the GA/SC/NC coasts and a big hit for N FL, that would be approaching the maxima produced by the January 1800 monster if it were to somehow get even close to verifying.

 

Larry, I'll get the stuff over to you in the morning if I wake up before they are overwritten.  Can you msg me with the most important station ids?

 

I have a good feeling that KSAV along with coastal regions of SC/NC will look great on the EPS individuals... probably many more of us on the interior too.  We have to prove Michelle wrong about KCAE on the outside, and we have to get Lookout some good stuff!  Some way!  And you definitely need to see a record breaking snow down that way with all the time you put into forecasting other areas getting snow instead... also.. we need to get Tony 2"+ of sleet.  Burger needs something other than a Nickel and Dime too.