Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You Southern guys need to chill. You are very much in the game for Monday. Harrisburg north though needs a bigger jump on most models and should focus on Tues-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 You Southern guys need to chill. You're the only one getting worked up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOL maybe it's been a long day haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Lancaster newspapers quoted eastern pa weather authority's warning of a massive crippling storm next week. I quit life. then there's this too... http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/01/monster_blizzard_headed_to_nj_probably_not_but_social_media_is_a_powerful_thing.html face. palm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Unless your a professional met why give much to models till 3 days out. This forum has been around long enough I would think most here would realize that. Its 3 days out till Monday so why not talk about that instead of flip flopping about tue- wed every 6 hours. we really haven't been hugging run to run and making predictions... but i do agree we shouldnt be putting a whole lot into the 6z and 18z runs this far out... I think we have done pretty well seeing what is going on and trying to see what the models are keying in on and trends... do have to keep in mind that any potential monday threat will depend on the movement of the front on Sunday and tuesday/wednesday will depend on monday... etc etc so when we get closer have to have mind set we need each domino to fall into place to get subsequent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yea agree, I meant some people just saying its going to miss them or its going to rain or snow or ice that far out. Guess its the cop in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 How much bearing will the track of Mondays storm affect the storm on Tue/Wed.Example: If Mondays storm tracks North what effect would that have on the Tue/Wed if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Fred G. on Weather World said temps approaching 50 in parts of PA for the Wednesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Fred G. on Weather World said temps approaching 50 in parts of PA for the Wednesday storm. I can't wait to see canderson's crazy Susquehanna flood pics right before my power goes out for five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hahaha...I have a feeling I should get the generator tuned up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Lancaster newspapers quoted eastern pa weather authority's warning of a massive crippling storm next week. I quit life. then there's this too... http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/01/monster_blizzard_headed_to_nj_probably_not_but_social_media_is_a_powerful_thing.html face. palm. I would highly recommend everyone go and read the story AND read through all of the comments that were posted from it. Fascinating reading actually. You get to see the whole spectrum of mindsets and opinions of both the mostly unaware citizenry and a few mets including....guess who?????????.....DT! I was practically rotflmao over DT doing what he does best....proclaiming that he was the best forecaster regarding SANDY and her landfall a full 8 days before it happened. So we have JB vs. DT vs. NWS. I really do feel for the NWS. Of course they have stringent protocols that they MUST adhere to when formulating their forecasts. On the other hand you have those in the private sector who do not have any protocols holding them back in terms of what they can say publicly. In the news article they mentioned Dave Robinson, the state climatologist for NJ. I happen to be a long-time friend of Dave's going back to the 80's. Dave also is the person I sold my NJ weather observation network business to through Rutger's climate program. I echo, of course, his opinion from the piece. It is beyond irresponsible to be posting that image on FB. Reading through the posts from the article just confirms that some people will take that information as gospel. Who knows how it will ultimately affect their lives. The main charter of the NWS is to help protect the lives of everyone in the United States as well as their property. They do the best that they can working with data that can be very conflicting at times.....ie....next week's 3 potential storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Fred G. on Weather World said temps approaching 50 in parts of PA for the Wednesday storm. My first guess with that comment would be the southeast corner of the state...ie, the Philly area would be most likely to hit 50. Perhaps even west of the Alleghenies too? I would tend to think central PA would be least likely, especially as one goes further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 My first guess with that comment would be the southeast corner of the state...ie, the Philly area would be most likely to hit 50. Perhaps even west of the Alleghenies too? I would tend to think central PA would be least likely, especially as one goes further north. Def southwest PA with this setup, they'll likely be starting this storm as a mix and going over to rain pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 then there's this too... http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2014/01/monster_blizzard_headed_to_nj_probably_not_but_social_media_is_a_powerful_thing.html face. palm. I thought that the link you provided was a good article. Good to see these "forecasters" being called out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Def southwest PA with this setup, they'll likely be starting this storm as a mix and going over to rain pretty quick. Assuming no changes MAG (though we all know there will be) - how much ice do you think we've got potential for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 21z SREF pushes the 0.1" line north of UNV for Monday's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 Assuming no changes MAG (though we all know there will be) - how much ice do you think we've got potential for? Certainly warning level ice (or warning level combo of snow/ice) is well within the realm of possibility. QPF has been varying by model, the GFS has been really been wet and suggestive of a big ice storm for the central counties. The Euro has not been as excessive...but still solid. 12z today was further northwest with the better precip for what could've been our thump snow going more thru Ohio and into Upstate NY. Either way as things stand right now.. my take on the main issue for this storm is that it boils down to a matter of how much snow we can manage before we go to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I thought that the link you provided was a good article. Good to see these "forecasters" being called out. sorry I meant the facepalm for yet another social media source using a clown map for one model run to make a post and hype something up before there is a true threat not for the article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM will be last to catch on like usual. ...SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY ANDREACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MONDAY......DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TOWARDTHE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC...FINAL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z CMC/UKMET WITH THE 00Z ECMWFENSEMBLE MEANFORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGEAN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN CA TOWARD THESOUTHERN TIP OF NM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFTNORTHEASTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLYACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE 12Z NAM IS SLOWER THANTHE OTHER MODELS WHICH INCLUDES THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. A HOST OFDIFFERENCES EMERGE FURTHER DOWNSTREAM PRIMARILY WITH THE AMPLITUDEOF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE 12ZCMC/UKMET HAVE BOTH TRENDED TOWARD A SHARPER SHORTWAVE WHICH ISMORE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT STILLNOWHERE NEAR AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 00Z ECMWF. WOULD LIKE TO ACCOUNTFOR THIS GROWING TREND HERE AND INCORPORATE THE 12Z CMC/UKMET INTOTHE MIX WHILE MAINTAINING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IN THEPREFERENCE DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The ARWs of the SREF group - couple are crazy amped. (Monday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This baby is coming North...mark it down! Southern tier will get a nice hit. Man a 6 pack of Yuengs make model watching that much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 A few more runs and we will probably be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 ALEET ALEET DT SPECIAL ON THE WAYYYY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Blown out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If I read the bottom right map right, it looks like you need to make J'town visit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Blown out. Please let this happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow oh wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 For Monday's storm... I wonder if we're going to start having to worry about mixing issues, especially in the southern counties. One of the SREFs has mixing almost as far north as State College. Though I don't think that's likely right now, I wouldn't rule out the possibility. We're all rooting for a northward trend, yes, but let's hope it doesn't end up being a "be careful what you wish for" type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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