BNAwx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like the 0z NAM has a stronger deformation band. Is that correct? If so, would that be the reason there's less precip further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Think i'm wrong Well i for one hope your right..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 So as we watch the GFS roll in, let me make sure I have my checklist correct. Stronger surface low = good, more southerly track = good, slower movement = bad. Relative to 18z, do I have that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Not exactly sure what the e/esm is doing it It has the 850's just getting past Nashville and hanging the 2m's in the NE/Ark. huge warm nose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Long time lurker, with finally enough cajones to say something. I'm still a newbie when it comes to reading & interpreting model data.....but I thought if the system was slower, then it would increase our accumulations? Somebody correct me if I'm wrong. Thanks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 So slightly slower, slightly weaker, and a tad south of NAM resulting in less snow. Not the 0z GFS we were hoping for but still 1-3 inches across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 0z GFS clown frown: But hey, ratios man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Just watching local NBC. They use an in house model called "Vipercast". It showed widespread 1*-3* across Tennessee except for Chattanooga. Big fat dry slot. Haha. That's probably an accurate forecast since we have no gulf moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Well the GFS suggests the ice threat is gone for Thursday so we have that going for us, which is nice I suppose, if you don't like ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 The path was overall slightly slower, and a bit more East on the GFS, that may explain the lower snow output but I thought maybe the 4-6 inch totals outside the Smokies might have been a bit much anyway from 18z. I still think widespread 1-3 with some 4 inch totals are a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What do you all make of the feature moving due north out of Cuba in front of the system...kind of jogging up the coast and gets absorbed east of Nova Scotia? Think it is having an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Figured I'd post the meteogram snow totals for the 0z runs if anyone is interested, these are 11:1 ratio so Cobb would likely be better. Tri Cities NAM 0.9 GFS 0.9 Knoxville NAM 2.5 GFS 3.3 Chattanooga NAM (couldn't read the data, maybe same as GFS) GFS 1.4 Crossville NAM 1.5 GFS 3.2 Nashville NAM 1.9 GFS 1.9 Jackson NAM 1.3 GFS 1.1 Memphis NAM 0.6 GFS 0.8 Edit: The Cobb output just came out and it improves the totals significantly as expected. Crossville GFS up to 5.6 for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 What do you all make of the feature moving due north out of Cuba in front of the system...kind of jogging up the coast and gets absorbed east of Nova Scotia? Think it is having an impact. As far S as it is it dont do anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I honestly think it's just the slight variability within model runs. The GFS has shown almost the exact same snow amounts in the same areas for almost 3 straight days now with only some slight variability to amounts. I think the entire state will have snow cover by Monday at day break. What do you all make of the feature moving due north out of Cuba in front of the system...kind of jogging up the coast and gets absorbed east of Nova Scotia? Think it is having an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 0z Euro shifts the better snow totals north of us FWIW. I can't stay up for the text output but the storm vista maps show significantly less than 12z did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Iowa State Meteogram snowfall totals 00zGFS Crossville 5.5 inches (Cobb) 4 inches (11:1) Knoxville 3.6 inches (Cobb) 3.2 inches (11:1) Tri 1.5 inches (Cobb) 1.4 inches (11:1) Nooga 1 (Cobb) 1.4 (11:1) Nashville 2.1 (Cobb) 1.9 (11:1) Memphis 0.9 (Cobb) 0.8 (11:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Iowa State Meteogram snowfall totals 00zGFS Weird that you and I are getting such different 11:1 numbers from the same site haha. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=ktri&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Edit: Doesn't matter, my eyes are getting heavy and I'm probably not seeing correctly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I think I mixed up the 12z with the 00z on the Tri 11:1. Weird that you and I are getting such different 11:1 numbers from the same site haha. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=ktri&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Edit: Doesn't matter, my eyes are getting heavy and I'm probably not seeing correctly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 JKL is really turning down their temps, now they have lows of -9 right along the state line counties. Waiting to see if MRX follows suit. As of now MRX is advertising -2 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 More watches/advisories. Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN316 AM CST SAT JAN 4 2014...AN ARCTIC BLAST WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL STRIKE MIDDLETENNESSEE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT....THE LEADING EDGE OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWESTMIDDLE TENNESSEE AROUND NOON SUNDAY...ACROSS THE I 65 CORRIDORAROUND 3 PM...AND THE PLATEAU AROUND 6 PM. AS THIS COLD FRONTPASSES...RAIN WILL SUDDENLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURESPLUMMET.FOR AREAS WEST OF THE PLATEAU...BURSTS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR FROMSUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NEAR 4 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUTNORTH OF I 40.FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION AND PLATEAU...SNOW WILL BEGINAROUND 6 PM...AND THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. LOCALLY HEAVIERAMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES COULD OCCUR FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FROMJAMESTOWN TO MONTEREY.THE SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSEROADS TO BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ACROSS THE MID STATE.AN ADDITIONAL DANGER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLD CONDITIONS.ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND GUSTYNORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW ZEROLATE SUNDAY NIGHT.FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA COULD OCCUR IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOTTAKEN. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS SHOULD DRESS WARMLY...AND LIMITTHEIR TIME OUTDOORS. PEOPLE WHO MUST TRAVEL SHOULD BE PREPARED FORTHE COLD CONDITIONS WITH EXTRA CLOTHING AND BLANKETS.TNZ010-011-031>034-065-066-080-042200-/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0001.140106T0000Z-140106T1800Z/CLAY-PICKETT-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-VAN BUREN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SPENCER316 AM CST SAT JAN 4 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGHMONDAY MORNING FOR THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION.* TIMING...6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NOON MONDAY.* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH MORE POSSIBLE AT THEHIGHEST ELEVATIONS. DRIVING WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS.* OTHER IMPACTS...FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH SINGLE DIGITTEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 TNZ005>009-022>030-056>064-075-077>079-093>095-042200-/O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0002.140105T1800Z-140106T0600Z/ STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-BENTON-HOUSTON- HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-PERRY- HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB- BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD... GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CAMDEN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON... ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE... CARTHAGE...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN... BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY... SMITHVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE... ALTAMONT...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI 316 AM CST SAT JAN 4 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF I 40. * OTHER IMPACTS...FRIGID CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 10 BELOW ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 OHX's current thinking. They also indicated they considered a winter storm watch for all the 2-3 areas as well and may still upgrade it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadTrends Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looking like up to 2 inches here in northeast AL. Hopefully it can happen, but my hopes arent high with this being a frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Local weather animation shows the L going straight to the Great Lakes...not much moisture for this end of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 That feature coming across the Florida peninsula seems to have some interaction with the cold front as both move north. The interaction varies from run to run. It is off the the NC coast as the front pushes through TN. May be nothing, but those types of features can sometimes reveal hints as to the upper air pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z NAM Hi-Res 24 hour snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Better than I expected Stove. What a jump from yesterday with the low track just 36-48 hours out! Mid TN back to west TN/AR border. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z NAM Hi-Res 24 hour snowfall: Hi Res Nam for sure our best hope at this point..well unless you live in the southern valley of east TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 12z GFS has the precip outrunning the cold air, robbing most of the state of snow. 12z Euro not as bad but still a significantly worse outlook than yesterday. It's frustrating to see such changes this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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