I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The NAM is a weenie dream. That is at 10-1 ratios. Imagine if that verified with 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sooo...Monday could have a 20 - 35 degree drop in temps. High of near 40, low in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 NAM.... yes please. Too bad it's still drunk from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The NAM is a weenie dream. That is at 10-1 ratios. Imagine if that verified with 15:1. agreed on that. I thought the QPF on the NAM was too high on there. but the GFS was too low. And the 12Z Canadian regional was also a bit high imho on the snow QPF for eastern PA and NJ. but we have time to see if the others come on board with the QPF train. http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/regional/2014010112/2014010112_054_R1_east_I_QPFTYPES_sn_048.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I'll have a slice of what the nam is serving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I would think they would have to up those totals. They always play consent stuff then once the storm is cranking they scramble . It has happened almost every storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sorry I just think 4-6 Atleast is more plausible. You bust low so what but having to up totals catches people off gaurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 The 15z sref brings the .5 to .75 to eastern Lancaster county, and southeastern York county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think that map is very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 New event. Winter Weather Advisory from 1/2/2014 12:00 PM to 1/3/2014 7:00 AM EST for Lancaster County, York County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sure just because it's my opinion n you have said many times you dislike me. But it's your opinion n it may be right but I would Atleast say 4-6 . Oh well though. Time will tell not complaining just using my freedom of speech thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sure just because it's my opinion n you have said many times you dislike me. But it's your opinion n it may be right but I would Atleast say 4-6 . Oh well though. Time will tell not complaining just using my freedom of speech thank you Dude I'm not sure how old you are,but you have some serious issues. My comment was in no way some sort of attack , did I quote you? You are correct, I do dislike you and believe me, if I was in attack mode you will know. And it is my opinion I think the map looks reasonable, bfd we disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 Chill folks...it's gonna snow and be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Lol this last page has gotten a bit nutty! I think map looks a little bit high but reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 warnings and advisories are going up now. and for central/northeast PA, it looks like WWA's for most of CTP's area, WSW's for ne PA and upstate NY. basically waiting on philly now for se PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2014 Author Share Posted January 1, 2014 If by some miracle the 18z -> 00z guidance comes in better, you might see the easternmost tier of counties go pink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Dude I'm not sure how old you are,but you have some serious issues. My comment was in no way some sort of attack , did I quote you? You are correct, I do dislike you and believe me, if I was in attack mode you will know. And it is my opinion I think the map looks reasonable, bfd we disagree. Don't worry about him saussy. I think the map looks good as well, at least at this stage in the game. 15z SREF drops snow from about 8" to a bit over 7" at LNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 There is a chance the entire state of Massachusetts 1) gets more than a foot of snow and 2) is entirely in a blizzard warning. This is a serious storm. Let's hope the Euro trend at 12z was a sign of further hugging of the coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 This is me blowing off steam just for a second, the NYC model threads have become unreadable thanks to 1,003,274 posters and their egos all dissecting the model runs at one time. And then arguing about who is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think the CTP is reasonable as well. Things can be adjusted if needed later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sauss I don't have issues I prob take your post more to heart because I know you criticize anything I post good or bad. Positive or negative. I'm not attacking anybody and I don't jump down somebody's throat if I read a post that I don't agree with. I love the weather that's why I'm here much like everybody else. I'm 29 by the way, I'm sure that's my problem. Well after the NAM run I think 1 inch is now a safe call. I'd change the map for my area to 1-2 inches now. I guess I jumped the gun earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I think the CTP is reasonable as well. Things can be adjusted if needed later. Yeah I understand adjustments may be needed but I think it's a safer call to adjust downwards then upwards with the way people are here in york. But I agree with you as far as adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Sauss I don't have issues I prob take your post more to heart because I know you criticize anything I post good or bad. Positive or negative. I'm not attacking anybody and I don't jump down somebody's throat if I read a post that I don't agree with. I love the weather that's why I'm here much like everybody else. I'm 29 by the way, I'm sure that's my problem. Well after the NAM run I think 1 inch is now a safe call. I'd change the map for my area to 1-2 inches now. I guess I jumped the gun earlier. The nam has between .25 and .5 qpf for your area. The map is a good call. Please stop!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Yeah I understand adjustments may be needed but I think it's a safer call to adjust downwards then upwards with the way people are here in york. But I agree with you as far as adjustments. I don't necessarily agree. Going high and downgrading draws a lot more criticism than going the other way, and if they always go high and then bust low, folks are going to be reluctant to take a legitimate big storm seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Of course I would find myself in the one area that is 2-4 for this particular event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I am about to lock in 4-8 for NEPA, but I'm still weary of something going wrong somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 If by some miracle the 18z -> 00z guidance comes in better, you might see the easternmost tier of counties go pink. BGM isn't waiting. NYZ062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-020300- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0001.140102T2100Z-140103T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0001.140102T1500Z-140103T1500Z/ SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA- LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTICELLO...TOWANDA...SAYRE... MONTROSE...TUNKHANNOCK...SCRANTON...WILKES-BARRE...HAZLETON... MILFORD...HONESDALE 158 PM EST WED JAN 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NEW YORK. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS. * TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. * WIND CHILLS...WILL DROP AS LOW AS MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 DEGREES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS. SNOW WILL BECOME STEADIER THURSDAY MORNING...AND HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH BITTERLY COLD AIR PUSHING DOWN INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 DEGREES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR VERY POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 I was a bit surprised that BGM pulled the trigger.... They are usually the last to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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