chubbs Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I wonder, on a % percentage basis, what accuracy modeling has had from 120 hours out, to 24. Someone had to do a study. As I detest model hugging, the manic up and down sine curve swings, storm/no storm, the panic it causes in those who live and die by these poor initialization biased tools, I would like everyone to think about the first question. That said, I love the mesoscale options, but it almost seems playing darts with a blindfold, is as accurate as modeling gets. In the interim, when they get the "bias" and the need to "blend" out of modeling, how about surface maps and soundings to get to the how much will be IMBY. It is at least as accurate as nowcasting. BTW, Philly Metro was supposed to hit 38 degrees today. It never went above freezing, and is now at 30.1 degrees, heavy overcast. I mention that to DC Mike as cold air is on the way. I noticed he already had light winds out of the North. Model performance is evaluated daily and charts have been posted on this site in various threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
56er Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ACY was supposed to get to 43 today and it peaked at 36, down to 34 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Never knew wind could actually hinder dendrite growth - you always learn something here. Thanks No problem. Yeah, this area is tough for getting ratios above 12 or 15:1. Usually, it is because there is some riming somewhere due to a warm nose. No one can deny how freakin' cold the profiles get and how deep the dendritic snow growth zone gets early tomorrow. But yes, wind can rip the flakes apart, leaving you will a sandy like accumulation. So despite the lesser wind and QPF in the NW areas, they may fluff their way to what someone in E-C NJ gets the windy/wet way. This is probably why Mt. Holly has a very solid area of 4-8" everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Additionally, Mt. Holly modified the prior warning to call for 4-8" of snow now, vs. 4-6"... Feels good to be under the warning. We were getting lonely being the only county in NJ without a WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Feels good to be under the warning. We were getting lonely being the only county in NJ without a WSW. There you go! I would like to say, before it starts snowing, I've enjoyed the day long anticipation (it helps that there is a high level of confidence), with no angst over will it change to rain, etc., with a falling barometer, NE winds, slowly falling temps, and a snow looking sky and the radar looking good. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Feels good to be under the warning. We were getting lonely being the only county in NJ without a WSW. There you go! I would like to say, before it starts snowing, I've enjoyed the day long anticipation (it helps that there is a high level of confidence), with no angst over will it change to rain, etc., with a falling barometer, NE winds, slowly falling temps, and a snow looking sky and the radar looking good. Awesome! Well said! Enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM got wetter for our area, shows a mesoscale band over SE PA/NJ as well headed into morning, starting to feel a lot better that we might hit 7" in philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM got wetter for our area, shows a mesoscale band over SE PA/NJ as well headed into morning, starting to feel a lot better that we might hit 7" in philly. Yep And it appears as though the Norlun extends into SEPA based on the NAM. Looking forward to the HiRes SIM radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Made a modest nudge up to 5-9 for Trenton. Unless any Norlun trough aligns over them I don't think they reach 10. But I've been wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM actually has the .75-1.00 contour into SE NJ, unsure exact amounts, but def. an encouraging late run. I don't care what anyone says, I still look at the models right before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Made a modest nudge up to 5-9 for Trenton. Unless any Norlun trough aligns over them I don't think they reach 10. But I've been wrong before. Is your backyard camera up and working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Is your backyard camera up and working? Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nam hires shows the inv trof feature nicely: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I95 corridor has a half decent shot at a second 6" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Well said! Enjoy the snow! Thank you, you too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nam hires shows the inv trof feat ure nicely: Eerily similar to the CRAS model a few days ago. May be it should not be discounted so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Borrowed this from the NYC forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 ] Ha! This is the winter of SEPA and SNJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I love the touch of blue in Lower Bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I love the touch of blue in Lower Bucks Its from the inverted trough, whoever gets in on that thing (if it happens) could see 9-11", problem is its impossible to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Its from the inverted trough, whoever gets in on that thing (if it happens) could see 9-11", problem is its impossible to forecast. They seem prone to the area which is nice....I'm hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I know I definitely fear the chance of a dryslot. Maybe they took that into account. That slot is collapsing rapidly. If you have access, check relative humidity, or just your local NOAA. As to the moderate snows tomorrow, after a lull, that will be from the inverted trough, and being at the back end of mesoscale modeling, showing deformation banding primarily out on the coastal plains of Jersey, with some comma tail backlash for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 As to the moderate snows tomorrow, after a lull, that will be from the inverted trough, and being at the back end of mesoscale modeling, showing deformation banding primarily out on the coastal plains of Jersey, with some comma tail backlash for Philly. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 surprised neither office mentioned the dangers of the freezing drizzle / mist for this evening commute. also : i'm not a 100% convinced were going from near 0 or below temperatures Saturday morning...to rain on Sunday. (with the snowcover) Sunday could be more interesting than expected. 12z GFS already hinting at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Huh? Maybe he means 12:01am tomorrow, I can't help you with the "lull" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 surprised neither office mentioned the dangers of the freezing drizzle / mist for this evening commute. also : i'm not a 100% convinced were going from near 0 or below temperatures Saturday morning...to rain on Sunday. (with the snowcover) Sunday could be more interesting than expected. 12 GFS already hinting at this. Not sure how snow cover is gonna help mid-level air temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM actually has the .75-1.00 contour into SE NJ, unsure exact amounts, but def. an encouraging late run. I don't care what anyone says, I still look at the models right before a storm. You have my complete support! I appreciate it when you pass info like this along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 18z gfs also a little wetter. Gets 0.5 to western Lanco/eastern York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not sure how snow cover is gonna help mid-level air temps... Just saying, it's going to be close. on 12z GFS, the low just needs to be 100 miles more east for it to be a snow/ wintry mix over most of the area. And models usually underestimate brutally cold air-masses...so it's very much possible. Lets see what 18z throws at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maybe he means 12:01am tomorrow, I can't help you with the "lull" though. Deformation banding? Comma tail? Not sure he knows what a Norlun is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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