December 21-22nd Winter Storm Part 2

[Hoosier]

wait has it shifted nw or not? everyone is freaking out that it is warmer and closer to GFS now

 

 

Chicago gets like 1-3" on the WxBell maps so I'd say it shifted. 

[Ajdos]

EURO to the hall of SHAME? 

[gosaints]

EURO to the hall of SHAME? 

Seriously its a 100 hours out..

[toronto blizzard]

EURO to the hall of SHAME? 

It's ONE run Ajdos!

[SchaumburgStormer]

It's ONE run Ajdos![/quote

As ALEK would say, the left turn signal has been on for some time

[weatherbo]

Congrats to weatherbo!!!

I'd say congrats on 12z run. this game is far from played.

[snowstormcanuck]

Although this is a big blow to the EURO, GFS was equally atrocious with its strung out POS, main QPF axis through OH/PA, mostly flurries on the NW side depiction. If today's 12z runs end up being correct, I'd call it a tie for accuracy between the two. More venom obviously is going to be spewed at the EURO cause that was the model that was showing the blizzard. 

[Ajdos]

It's ONE run Ajdos!

It might be one run, but remember the storm has been sampled? and as far as I know that were supposed to watch for major shifts on todays runs?...we are 100 hours out, wait and see.

[BowMeHunter]

how we looking this run

 

 

F Madison

 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Okay, so essentially is the Euro calling for mostly plain rain in Toronto?

[Chicago Storm]

Consistent ECMWF is consistent.

Or my phone cache needs to be cleared.

[toronto blizzard]

Okay, so essentially is the Euro calling for mostly plain rain in Toronto?

No. It has a lot of freezing rain to start but then looks like it goes over to rain. Track of the low looks like the GFS.

[Chargers09]

What a surprise, Madison jackpot once again. 

[snowstormcanuck]

Okay, so essentially is the Euro calling for mostly plain rain in Toronto?

 

I think there's still a fair bit of ice. It'd likely go over to rain at some point. No (or very little) snow though.

[A-L-E-K]

Or my phone cache needs to be cleared.

 

 

haha, surprise!

[snowstormcanuck]

Or my phone cache needs to be cleared.

 

for the record, I thought it was sarcasm.

[huronicane]

for the record, I thought it was sarcasm.

 

Same

[hm8]

Or my phone cache needs to be cleared.

 

 

for the record, I thought it was sarcasm.

 

Ditto

[snowstormcanuck]

Another edition of straw grasping time: more on the "bad 12z intake" theory. If this much warmer solution is actually viable, wouldn't at least some of the EURO ensembles have picked up on it?

[A-L-E-K]

Although this is a big blow to the EURO, GFS was equally atrocious with its strung out POS, main QPF axis through OH/PA, mostly flurries on the NW side depiction. If today's 12z runs end up being correct, I'd call it a tie for accuracy between the two. More venom obviously is going to be spewed at the EURO cause that was the model that was showing the blizzard. 

 

 

This one has a long way to go, most of us look too far south/east but i'm sure a few more surprises are on deck

[Whitelakeroy]

Thankfully the turn for the worst is 100 hours out and not less than 6 hours before it starts!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

No. It has a lot of freezing rain to start but then looks like it goes over to rain. Track of the low looks like the GFS.

 

 

I think there's still a fair bit of ice. It'd likely go over to rain at some point. No (or very little) snow though.

That's really odd given that on the accuweather Canada forums, someone has posted a 12z Euro snow map which shows 14 inches of snow in Toronto accumulating between today and the end of the day Sunday.

[snowstormcanuck]

That's really odd given that on the accuweather Canada forums, someone has posted a 12z Euro snow map which shows 14 inches of snow in Toronto accumulating between today and the end of the day Sunday.

 

1) it's cold enough for snow with Friday's system, so there's several inches from that.

 

2) If it's a wx bell map, PL and ZR are indicated as snow.

[McDude]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the trend always a slight NW shift?

[Nelson]

And...the King is dead.

At least for White Christmas prospects here in Chicago.

 

We make it sound like the Euro was showing a suppressed system this whole time. In the grand scheme of things, 4+ days out, It didn't move by that much... A little ridiculous to call a model dead, IMO

[Snowstorms]

Another edition of straw grasping time: more on the "bad 12z intake" theory. If this much warmer solution is actually viable, wouldn't at least some of the EURO ensembles have picked up on it?

 

Well it will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro Ensembles show..Their are few things that need to be monitored. The strength of the HP will determine how much low level cold air can work into this storm.

 

When will this storm become fully sampled? 

[snowstormcanuck]

This one has a long way to go, most of us look too far south/east but i'm sure a few more surprises are on deck

 

Agree. See straw grabbing post above.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1) it's cold enough for snow with Friday's system, so there's several inches from that.

 

2) If it's a wx bell map, PL and ZR are indicated as snow.

Just for reference, PL= plain rain, or ice pellets?

[snowstormcanuck]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the trend always a slight NW shift?

 

I haven't noticed the old "nw trend" as a dominant characteristic of the models in many a winter. Maybe pre-2007?

[LizardMafia]

Talk about a thread wide MELTDOWN!