Geos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Was just about to post that T-snow. SWS issued. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL420 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2013ILZ003>006-011>014-INZ001-002-160400-WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LAKE IN-PORTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...GARY...VALPARAISO420 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2013...QUICK BURST OF SNOW LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLYEVENING...POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF MODERATE OR EVENBRIEFLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROCKFORD TOAURORA TO VALPARAISO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FASTMOVING DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BRINGINGSNOW TO THE ROCKFORD AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...TO THECHICAGO METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND TO NORTHWEST INDIANA BYEARLY EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOW MAY ONLY LAST 2 OR 3 HOURSBUT AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE ROCKFORDTO AURORA TO VALPARAISO LINE. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUNDNEAR THIS LINE AND INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES NORTHWARD TO THEWISCONSIN BORDER.THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE AN ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE AFTERNOON RUSHHOUR...INCLUDING IN THE CHICAGO METRO...WITH MODERATE OR BRIEFLYHEAVY SNOW OCCURRING. THE MOST INTENSE SNOW LOOKS TO WIND DOWNPRIOR TO THE AFTERNOON ROCKFORD COMMUTE. FORECASTERS WILL CONTINUETO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS THE LOCATION OF HEAVIESTSNOW MAY SHIFT PRIOR TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHECK BACK FOR THELATEST FORECAST UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Snow breaking out already across DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 RGEM really gets some moisture in this clipper... somewhere around .3" of QPF in that green stripe. GFS was generally .1-.2" but with ratios this could be a nice little 1-3" event with isolated higher amounts. I-80 in IN/OH might cash in for the second time in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 RGEM really gets some moisture in this clipper... somewhere around .3" of QPF in that green stripe. GFS was generally .1-.2" but with ratios this could be a nice little 1-3" event with isolated higher amounts. I-80 in IN/OH might cash in for the second time in a week. Looks like some lake enhancement up there from this model. Looking good to add another few inches at least the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Looks like some lake enhancement up there from this model. Looking good to add another few inches at least the next few days. Some of it comes from the LES falling right now but overall it's pretty robust with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Some of it comes from the LES falling right now but overall it's pretty robust with the first wave. Do you have to have membership to get QPF output from the GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Do you have to have membership to get QPF output from the GEM? I do not unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Mmm that's juicy. Gimme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 RGEM and GGEM are juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 looks like a solid 1-2" refresher should see a brief window of +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Brunt of synoptic QPF misses YYZ to the south (although still around 0.10"). NAM is hinting at some weak LES potential of Lake Ontario though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Hourly has me down for 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I have 2.5" for the hourly. Starting at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 IWX going with 3.9" between the two waves here, CLE has 2.8" in the hourly. Either way should be a solid snow total booster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 really nice low level thermal gradient associated with this quick hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's not showing up on radar, but flakes are already flying here in Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think the trailing clipper may be good for 1-2" as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 It's not showing up on radar, but flakes are already flying here in Racine. wow, no kidding....nice obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 guessing we squeak out 1.5 inches between the 2 waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 radar looking pretty good, LOT call for a strip of 1-2" across the NE metro area looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I think the trailing clipper may be good for 1-2" as well The 0z RGEM and 12z NAM agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z RGEM total snowfall through 12z 12/18. Dark blue is 0.20-0.30" liquid equivalent. Green is 0.30-0.40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Should be good for about an inch here between both clippers. Both north and east of here look to do fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Some heavy snow obs coming out of Minnesota. Rochester at 1/4 mile, and way down to just 1/8 mile at MSP. That's some rippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Radar returns look to take the band slightly south of some guidance (canadian doing well) and right through the heart of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 12z RGEM total snowfall through 12z 12/18. Dark blue is 0.20-0.30" liquid equivalent. Green is 0.30-0.40". 12:16 12z RGEM snow.gif .20-.30 is going to yield quite a bit with these temperatures today. I think that model has the best handle on it. 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 .20-.30 is going to yield quite a bit with these temperatures today. I think that model has the best handle on it. 12z run. Yeah these little clippers have had some great ratios. The high ratio combined with the intensity of the snowfall should make for one of the better snowfall rates of the season for northeast IL, and Wisconsin. You should be good for 3-5" of fluff Geos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 The winter of over-performers continues? I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 30:1 ratios 0800 AM SNOW MELROSE 45.68N 94.81W12/16/2013 M3.0 INCH STEARNS MN CO-OP OBSERVER24 HOUR TOTAL. WATER EQUIVALENT 0.10 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 15z RAP looks pretty impressive with the one following behind it late tonight into tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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