Mr Bob Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 The new Euro weeklies from last night are very supportive of a cold pattern over the next 3 weeks...moreso than previous runs with little evidence of any warmth from the SE ridge especially week 2 and 3 extending out to Jan 20th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 The good news for the mid south is that you can get away with a marginal PNA at times. South of TN, not so much. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's better than it was last year or the year before,i want to see some cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 The new Euro weeklies from last night are very supportive of a cold pattern over the next 3 weeks...moreso than previous runs with little evidence of any warmth from the SE ridge especially week 2 and 3 extending out to Jan 20th... But do you trust them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 But do you trust them? They match up with the current pattern and have been pretty good through Week 3 the last couple of weeks. There is good reason to believe that they have a handle on the pattern. Many will naysay based on a few short observations, but they are useful tool when in alignment with the pattern and have consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 The new Euro weeklies from last night are very supportive of a cold pattern over the next 3 weeks...moreso than previous runs with little evidence of any warmth from the SE ridge especially week 2 and 3 extending out to Jan 20th... Good to hear, it's nice to have growing support for colder weather in the not so distant future. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Just because you got a ridge out W doesn't mean the cold will come down S.The GFS and and Euro ens are much warmerthe upper air pattern on the ensembles look fine. Negative ao going stronger and more negative by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 They match up with the current pattern and have been pretty good through Week 3 the last couple of weeks. There is good reason to believe that they have a handle on the pattern. Many will naysay based on a few short observations, but they are useful tool when in alignment with the pattern and have consistency. Thanks,you should post here more often.Always good to here a mets perspective on things to come for the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 The good news for the mid south is that you can get away with a marginal PNA at times. South of TN, not so much. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 the upper air pattern on the ensembles look fine. Negative ao going stronger and more negative by the day. Yeah i didn't see anything different on the teleconnections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Latest euro mjo forecast favors cold east phases 8, 1, 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 [attachment=111948500 Weather.png] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 But do you trust them? This is an interesting question, BTW....Trust in a weather model of any kind? Depends on the level of detail you are seeking, I suppose. Considering what we do here, we have to get an idea of what is coming over the next few weeks to a month or so...so we keep a close eye on this and the CFS and use them when we have confidence...they are not deterministic and you can't use them for any level of detail but generalizations can be made and actions can be taken on those if we feel they fit what we are looking for. Most people hate the weeklies for correctly sniffing out the sustained warmth over the last two winters and they even did a good job in signalling the cold spring pattern last year...Can they be way off? Of course...but it seems with all the other signs out there this week that they can be "trusted" for what use they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 This is an interesting question, BTW....Trust in a weather model of any kind? Depends on the level of detail you are seeking, I suppose. Considering what we do here, we have to get an idea of what is coming over the next few weeks to a month or so...so we keep a close eye on this and the CFS and use them when we have confidence...they are not deterministic and you can't use them for any level of detail but generalizations can be made and actions can be taken on those if we feel they fit what we are looking for. Most people hate the weeklies for correctly sniffing out the sustained warmth over the last two winters and they even did a good job in signalling the cold spring pattern last year...Can they be way off? Of course...but it seems with all the other signs out there this week that they can be "trusted" for what use they are. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 I believe we are fixing to enter into a colder pattern, most signs point to colder rather than warmer. I just hope we get the moisture for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2013 Author Share Posted December 24, 2013 Robert posted an update on Facebook for WxSouth. Also, the 12z GFS looks promising to say the least. Will be interesting to see the 12z Euro. You all will have to keep me updated as I'll be on the road until later this evening. Excellent disco today. Thanks to Mr. Bob for adding his thoughts. Very interesting comments about the Euro weeklies - learned some things there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2013 Author Share Posted December 24, 2013 12z Euro is cold, but not severely so. Looks like a decent pattern though. Nothing large scale in terms of storms - yet. One would think that some upslope events might be expected along with a few clippers. Merry Christmas Eve! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 FB Robert with WxSouth - update. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 It's been a while since we've saw this even advertised on the models. 12z had lows of 0-5 degrees basically north of I-40 with state wide, lasting snow pack in it's extended. A thing of beauty. Even in the snowy winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11, it didn't get frigid. In the past, lasting snow pack wasn't uncommon here, nor was 0-10 below type cold. It went below 0 about every other year here for most of my life. I Think I've only been below 0 twice in the 2000s. It also wasn't uncommon for snow to stay packed, even on the secondary roads, with the sun out, for days at a time. That'd have a good shot of happening again with how the 12z looked today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 24, 2013 Share Posted December 24, 2013 Hopefully we are just seeing a hiccup on todays runs.The Euro ems 12z brought out the torch in the mid. range and beyond but i've noticed with the execption of yesterdays run it's been on the warmer side for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 It's been a while since we've saw this even advertised on the models. 12z had lows of 0-5 degrees basically north of I-40 with state wide, lasting snow pack in it's extended. A thing of beauty. Even in the snowy winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11, it didn't get frigid. In the past, lasting snow pack wasn't uncommon here, nor was 0-10 below type cold. It went below 0 about every other year here for most of my life. I Think I've only been below 0 twice in the 2000s. It also wasn't uncommon for snow to stay packed, even on the secondary roads, with the sun out, for days at a time. That'd have a good shot of happening again with how the 12z looked today.I know that below zero weather is very rare here in the valley, but to my knowledge it hasn't happened here in my lifetime, and I am 25 years old. Apparently the 80's were just a better decade for subzero cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I know that below zero weather is very rare here in the valley, but to my knowledge it hasn't happened here in my lifetime, and I am 25 years old. Apparently the 80's were just a better decade for subzero cold. The 70's and mid 80's it happened I froze in it. We can only hope we see a 1976 or 85 winter, the 60's were also good although I myself was to little to remember very much. Anyway it's going to get colder I do believe that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The 70's and mid 80's it happened I froze in it. We can only hope we see a 1976 or 85 winter, the 60's were also good although I myself was to little to remember very much. Anyway it's going to get colder I do believe that. Like this pic i posted on the GFS ens,the MJO is in 7,Pacific.The Euro esm keeps backing off the cold and the 12z Euro esm brings the torch in the east and colder out W.You won't see the extreme cold in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clarksville Snowman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I am in northwest tenn not the east. I am not expecting extreme cold, in fact it's harder to get snow in extreme cold. I was talking about winters of past and that type of cold and snow are rare around here, but still yeah I think it's going to be a cold start to January. I don't think we will see exteme cold like them winters but cold and certainly not a torch.In fact I think tennessee is going to have a great chance at seeing snow the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 I cannot emphasize enough...the models are going to be all over the place until the new pattern sets in. If it gets warm, no big deal. We almost always have an event to tack. Focus on the pattern. Now to be fair, the pattern this winter has not been great for measurable snow....but I have seen more flakes than average up to this point. I think the trough holds, but almost all forecasters I have read for this region warn that after mid-Jan all bets are off. With it being the coldest climo time of year slightly above normal is not all bad. My money is on the Euro weeklies. They were a beast last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I am in northwest tenn not the east. I am not expecting extreme cold, in fact it's harder to get snow in extreme cold. I was talking about winters of past and that type of cold and snow are rare around here, but still yeah I think it's going to be a cold start to January. I don't think we will see exteme cold like them winters but cold and certainly not a torch.In fact I think tennessee is going to have a great chance at seeing snow the first week of January. I cannot emphasize enough...the models are going to be all over the place until the new pattern sets in. If it gets warm, no big deal. We almost always have an event to tack. Focus on the pattern. Now to be fair, the pattern this winter has not been great for snow....but I have seen more flakes than average up to this point. I think the trough holds, but almost all forecasters I have read for this region warn that after mid-Jan all bets are off. With it being the coldest climo time of year slightly above normal is not all bad. My money is on the Euro weeklies. They were a beast last year. No pob man,by all means didnt mean to call you out,no one talks here..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 Like this pic i posted on the GFS ens,the MJO is in 7,Pacific.The Euro esm keeps backing off the cold and the 12z Euro esm brings the torch in the east and colder out W.You won't see the extreme cold in the east.Are you confusing the control with the eps mean? I see a warm up to normal for two days this weekend. After its back below normal as the blocking that's just getting started starts to work its magic. Euro ensembles show a positive pna, negative ao thru the run with the nao going negative slightly by day 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 The pattern on modeling will likely be laden with error in the coming weeks. We have a small coastal potential on some modeling that doesn't even show on others. This is within 5 days. If models can't agree on something that close, we can't possibly expect them to lock in on a pattern to produce snow/ice day 7 and beyond. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 25, 2013 Author Share Posted December 25, 2013 No pob man,by all means didnt mean to call you out,no one talks here..lol Did not feel called out at all. Generally, I talk a lot in the banter thread and stick to wx here. It's all good. As for the pattern, let's see how tomorrow rolls. Until the Atlantic changes, I think it will be tough to maintain cold in the East...but it is looking somewhat better relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2013 Share Posted December 25, 2013 I cannot emphasize enough...the models are going to be all over the place until the new pattern sets in. If it gets warm, no big deal. We almost always have an event to tack. Focus on the pattern. Now to be fair, the pattern this winter has not been great for measurable snow....but I have seen more flakes than average up to this point. I think the trough holds, but almost all forecasters I have read for this region warn that after mid-Jan all bets are off. With it being the coldest climo time of year slightly above normal is not all bad. My money is on the Euro weeklies. They were a beast last year. Believe your wrong here.The MJO on the GFS ens. Has been stuck on 7,that has nothing to do with other than seasonal weather for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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