SnowMan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 What's up with the freezing rain fetish?Are you bothered by my desire for freezing rain rather than plain rain? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I still feel pretty good about 6-10 in my area, surprised by the amount of mid-level warming that is forecast to occur overnight but that happens with a secondary track the way it is in December. I doubt I'll see any plain rain but ZR/IP for a few hours looks like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This low will probably go near or just south of my fanny. Kevin, rain may not be far from you to the SE, but you should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The RAP seems quite off...using the maps from UCAR but it almost seems that the RAP is just guessing where LP placement is and then it gets real funky throwing up multiple Lows in such a small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM is pretty much done here by 12z. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 18z nam brings it right over Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Great snow thump coming though and snowing a pretty good clip now imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM is pretty much done here by 12z. lol Valid 12Z tomorrow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well, I'll tell ya ... when I/we first began tracking this potential last week it sure turned out to be a good call NOT committing to any discussion re p-type on this thing because to tell you the truth, I still don't have the first damn clue what is going to happen. So, I guess having no horses in this race I'll just go with the Euro - fine. I will say this, ...just stepping back for a moment, this is an odd system. You really don't typically see 1040mb arctic highs just get bullied out of the way by comparatively weaker lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Great snow thump coming though and snowing a pretty good clip now imby. For you probably, I think anyone south of the MA/CT/RI line and points east could be in trouble for additional heavy totals. IE, the mix line may not be far behind the heavier precip and there may be a letup just in advance of the main heavy stuff which quickly changes over. From between the MA Pike and the borders above it should still rip...and then progressively fine from there north...JMHO. If I get 1-3" additional it'll be a huge victory. New NAM has the 0c at 8h all the way through CT and RI by 1am, and knocking on the door of Boston by 130 or 2 at the latest. Faster yet again from the earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The 18z NAM spikes TT values into the upper 40's as we near 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM is pretty much done here by 12z. lol Yes there was discussion the other day about these open waves in a progressive fast flow, and how they tend it in and out and don't waste any time. Usually things end faster than guidance. I was also just noticing that it's over in WV already. There's probably going to be some renewed rad fill-ins when the secondary lifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Was it 2/2/11 where every run leading up to (and right through) the event was more amped/warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well, I'll tell ya ... when I/we first began tracking this potential last week it sure turned out to be a good call NOT committing to any discussion re p-type on this thing because to tell you the truth, I still don't have the first damn clue what is going to happen. So, I guess having no horses in this race I'll just go with the Euro - fine. I will say this, ...just stepping back for a moment, this is an odd system. You really don't typically see 1040mb arctic highs just get bullied out of the way by comparatively weaker lows. Perhaps it will be another modeling correction. Could this be just heading for the meat grinder at last moment . I.E @ sne and models struggling w that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 The 18z NAM spikes TT values into the upper 40's as we near 12z tomorrow. They were as high as 53 in yesterday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 For you probably, I think anyone south of the MA/CT/RI line and points east could be in trouble for additional heavy totals. IE, the mix line may not be far behind the heavier precip and there may be a letup just in advance of the main heavy stuff which quickly changes over. From between the MA Pike and the borders above it should still rip...and then progressively fine from there north...JMHO. If I get 1-3" additional it'll be a huge victory. New NAM has the 0c at 8h all the way through CT and RI by 1am, and knocking on the door of Boston by 130 or 2 at the latest. Faster yet again from the earlier run. Not true. H85 line ay 6Z south of you and Kevin. It gets to Boston at 9z and just to pike then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This low will probably go near or just south of my fanny. Kevin, rain may not be far from you to the SE, but you should be ok. I don't think it gets above 25..nevermind plain rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Here are the euro maps. Notice the yellow solid line from 03z to 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 They were as high as 53 in yesterday's Really? Wow...that isn't too bad. Not all too often we get TT's into the lower 50's here, even in the warm months. Usually they always seem to get up to like 50-51 at the highest. What it during the Jan or Feb blizzard a few years back where TT's were like well into the mid 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Why are we still looking at the NAM and analyzing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Perhaps it will be another modeling correction. Could this be just heading for the meat grinder at last moment . I.E @ sne and models struggling w that Possibly... As Dendrite just insinuated ... sometimes even the Euro blows it right on top of an event, however rare it may be that it does. If there were ever a candidate system to question the models across the board, this is a good one. Unfortunately, there is no crystal ball -- I could almost see this now doing anything other than snowing where I am in Ayer, and having it go over to bullets in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Is ZR a real threat with this? GFS BUFKIT shows a melting layer of almost 10K feet at HFD at 09z. It has the surface slightly above freezing which I doubt verifies so I'm wondering if ZR could be an issue or if the depth of the sub-freezing layer is going to be too great. My guess would be the latter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I don't think it gets above 25..nevermind plain rain lol Yeah you won't be above 32 unless something weird happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not true. H85 line ay 6Z south of you and Kevin. It gets to Boston at 9z and just to pike then. From what I'm seeing the 925 0z line is well south of them at 6z but the 850 line is up to the CT/RI/MA border but it is well south of BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not true. H85 line ay 6Z south of you and Kevin. It gets to Boston at 9z and just to pike then. His 6z interpretation looks correct to me. I see the H85 0C at the MA/CT border to GHG. 9z it's from MPM to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Really? Wow...that isn't too bad. Not all too often we get TT's into the lower 50's here, even in the warm months. Usually they always seem to get up to like 50-51 at the highest. What it during the Jan or Feb blizzard a few years back where TT's were like well into the mid 50's. the NAM/GFS TTs as per BUFKT were surging to 50 to 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 scooter - on your images...yellow and red are what, again? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Here are the euro maps. Notice the yellow solid line from 03z to 09z. Is that 850-700 thkns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 the NAM/GFS TTs as per BUFKT were surging to 50 to 53 That is nice! There def is a legit thundersnow signal overnight although the strongest signals though come really, really late...seems like a couple hour window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Possibly... As Dendrite just insinuated ... sometimes even the Euro blows it right on top of an event, however rare it may be that it does. If there were ever a candidate system to question the models across the board, this is a good one. Unfortunately, there is no crystal ball -- I could almost see this now doing anything other than snowing where I am in Ayer, and having it go over to bullets in ORH. it really is too bad there isn't even a pubic hair worth of blocking. imagine locking in that HP north of Maine with this thing coming up from the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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