Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)

[jbj5d]

I am a huge CWG supporter, especially the way they forecast.  But 20% - T-2", 50% - 2-5", and 30% 5"+ is not really a forecast to me..

 

While your opinion makes sense, and a range of near infinite possibilities isn't a single forecast, weather is not an exact science that supports such a single hypothesis.  The attempts to treat it as such and create false certainties of the past few decades is why meteorologists are the butts of many jokes today.

 

While forecasts even 12 hours in advance should have a relatively high chance of verification, they still are not certainties.  Look at all that went right today: QPF, storm track, banding orientation, general banding location, and timing.  Only the temps were off by a mere degree or 2, and the 5" snow event becomes a single inch in many places.  While close only counts in horseshoes, hand-generades, and Thermonuclear weapons, a profession that continues to allow itself to get 90% of science DEAD ON and still BUST in the eyes of the public is doing it wrong.  If you can't meet the expectations of this game (single forecast), you have to change the expectations.

[isohume]

Capital Weather gang...not LWX...Putting out a nonstandard broad range is a little bit brazen itself...but then saying there is a 50% chance you miss the range...I don't get it...and it is very very rare I disagree with the way CWG forecasts

 

Since wx forecasting is all about uncertainty, it's hard to be deterministic the majority of times. Relaying forecast uncertainty to the public and others is the hardest part of the process. It's subjective and based mainly on experience, which deviates quickly from any basis is science.    

[Ian]

has DCA reported anything yet snow total wise?

[snow.]

While your opinion makes sense, and a range of near infinite possibilities isn't a single forecast, weather is not an exact science that supports such a single hypothesis.  The attempts to treat it as such and create false certainties of the past few decades is why meteorologists are the butts of many jokes today.

 

While forecasts even 12 hours in advance should have a relatively high chance of verification, they still are not certainties.  Look at all that went right today: QPF, storm track, banding orientation, general banding location, and timing.  Only the temps were off by a mere degree or 2, and the 5" snow event becomes a single inch in many places.  While close only counts in horseshoes, hand-generades, and Thermonuclear weapons, a profession that continues to allow itself to get 90% of science DEAD ON and still BUST in the eyes of the public is doing it wrong.  If you can't meet the expectations of this game (single forecast), you have to change the expectations.

 

 

Since wx forecasting is all about uncertainty, it's hard to be deterministic the majority of times. Relaying forecast uncertainty to the public and others is the hardest part of the process. It's subjective and based mainly on experience, which deviates quickly from any basis is science.    

 

 

I love their approach...I think there was a better way of conveying uncertainty is this particular instance

[isohume]

I love their approach...I think there was a better way of conveying uncertainty is this particular instance

 

I agree. I think it does more harm than good. 

[Ian]

NWS just seems to think it's immune to criticism, perhaps largely because most of its products get fed to the public from other sources without comment.

[zgummy]

Capital Weather gang...not LWX...Putting out a nonstandard broad range is a little bit brazen itself...but then saying there is a 50% chance you miss the range...I don't get it...and it is very very rare I disagree with the way CWG forecasts

 

NWS has a somewhat limited mechanism for delivering forecasts thru their products.  CWG has carte blanche on a unrestricted web page where they can carry on and discuss all the varying scenarios thoughts and outcomes.  And do they do so in an attempt to CYA?

 

And an obs to lower the risk of my post getting deleted:  Reston 36 degrees.

[isohume]

NWS just seems to think it's immune to criticism, perhaps largely because most of its products just get fed to the public from other sources without comment.

 

Where was that stated? Have you ever checked our FB pages, or webmaster accounts, or NWS Chat, or emails to management, or phone calls from the public and private sector? We get plenty of good/bad feedback.     

[feloniousq]

so much for snow cover til the weekend.  pushing 35 in bright sunshine now.  i'll be lucky to have snow cover by dinner.

[Ian]

Where was that stated? Have you ever checked our FB pages, or webmaster accounts, or NWS Chat, or emails to management, or phone calls from the public and private sector? We get plenty of good/bad feedback.     

Yeah and pretty much any time I've seen NWS criticized by someone that's not the general public (i.e., a bigger respected voice) folks get super defensive and all like "omg, how can you be mean". Just look at certain offices like Norman.. they think they are god's gift.

[DCAlexandria]

Where was that stated? Have you ever checked our FB pages, or webmaster accounts, or NWS Chat, or emails to management, or phone calls from the public and private sector? We get plenty of good/bad feedback.     

WOW, you just got served.

[mitchnick]

NWS just seems to think it's immune to criticism, perhaps largely because most of its products get fed to the public from other sources without comment.

it starts from the top, no, the very top

[EastCoast NPZ]

Had 4.0" at the height of the storm.  Rates dipped around 7:30 and melting/compaction kept me at 4.0" for the remainder.  Temps were just too warm.  Good thing this came mostly pre-dawn here.  Finished up as some sleet.  Temp forecast seemed to be a big bust.  Sorry for you guys in DC.  I knew when we were having temp issues out here that you all might be in for disappointment.  I'd sure like to hear what happened to the cold air.  My forecasted high today (yesterday evening) was 29F, and even this morning it was 31F.  We cooled to 32F during the heavy stuff, but quickly went right back up to 34F once it let up.  Now we are partly sunny, 36F, and everything is melting alarmingly fast.  No complaints for two storms in 3 days near Christmas (and 9.3" total), but the temps.....?

[DCAlexandria]

OH lord, this thread is going to turn into a tea party rally.  This storm really sucked.

[capitalweather]

NWS has a somewhat limited mechanism for delivering forecasts thru their products.  CWG has carte blanche on a unrestricted web page where they can carry on and discuss all the varying scenarios thoughts and outcomes.  And do they do so in an attempt to CYA?

 

And an obs to lower the risk of my post getting deleted:  Reston 36 degrees.

It's not a CYA.... it's being honest. We give our best bet and then present alternative possibilities.  If someone thinks they have a better way to present the uncertainty, I'd love to hear it/see it.

[isohume]

Yeah and pretty much any time I've seen NWS criticized by someone that's not the general public (i.e., a bigger respected voice) folks get super defensive and all like "omg, how can you be mean". Just look at certain offices like Norman.. they think they are god's gift.

 

Serious, we get much criticism. It's part of the job and we don't take it lightly or scoff it off. When we have a busted warning or miss an event we really do like to learn from it and we don't dismiss the impact it has on our customers.    

[Ian]

it starts from the top, no, the very top

 

Again.. I think a majority of the true talent goes to NWS. But as long as you're closed minded and super defensive you're always going to be behind the game.  I am probably biased since I work for an organization that tries to help government function better.. But, criticism is good.. thinking you're the best and don't need anyone to ever tell you otherwise is generally not.

[DCAlexandria]

It's not a CYA.... it's being honest. We give our best bet and then present alternative possibilities.  If someone thinks they have a better way to present the uncertainty, I'd love to hear it/see it.

 

Make your best 3" range, then take credit or the punishment when you are right/wrong.

[capitalweather]

I love their approach...I think there was a better way of conveying uncertainty is this particular instance

How would you have done it???

[Ian]

Serious, we get much criticism. It's part of the job and we don't take it lightly or scoff it off. When we have a busted warning or miss an event we really do like to learn from it and we don't dismiss the impact it has on our customers.    

I know you guys do and I know the org looks at past mistakes and rectifies them.  There have also seemingly (from the outside) been a great number of positive changes in recent years.

[capitalweather]

Make your best 3" range, then take credit or the punishment when you are right/wrong.

But that's essentially withholding information from the public.  We tell people what we think, and then tell them how confident we are, and what else might be transpire.  And no, we don't - contrary to what some people think - say we got a forecast right because the 20 percent bust scenario when mentioned verifies. In our post-mortems, we're grade ourselves hard and own up.

[chris87]

Again.. I think a majority of the true talent goes to NWS. But as long as you're closed minded and super defensive you're always going to be behind the game.  I am probably biased since I work for an organization that tries to help government function better.. But, criticism is good.. thinking you're the best and don't need anyone to ever tell you otherwise is generally not.

 

i'm not really in the forecasting community but is this a generalization? a sampling of forecasters you interact with in your capacity with CWG or on twitter? or a behavior exhibited by the NWS as a whole? 

[MN Transplant]

Instead of arguing, everyone should go outside now that the cloud cover is breaking.  Pretty awesome.

 

 

 

[NattyBo]

Instead of arguing, everyone should go outside now that the cloud cover is breaking.  Pretty awesome.

 

 

 

 

 

Was just about to post that it's now partly sunny in Rockville. Welp.

[Ian]

i'm not really in the forecasting community but is this a generalization? a sampling of forecasters you interact with in your capacity with CWG or on twitter? or a behavior exhibited by the NWS as a whole?

It's probably at least partly a generalization though I know quite a few people in the business now. Again I might be biased by proximity given someone like Wes is probably about the best forecaster you will ever come across. I think opportunities outside NWS/gov have grown a bit recently so I'm sure there is a lot of talent out there... I know a number of really great private sector mets. I guess I feel like the science has been advanced the most by gov despite any gov issues tho.

[Ian]

Instead of arguing, everyone should go outside now that the cloud cover is breaking.  Pretty awesome.

 

 

 

All my snow already melted off the trees. Nice though!

[clskinsfan]

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Just went for a long Jebwalk. Temps are falling on a pretty stiff NW breeze. Gonna be COLD tonight.

[stormtracker]

it starts from the top, no, the very top

Oh lord, here we go.   Somehow I knew he'd get dragged into this....which is silly.

[chris87]

It's probably at least partly a generalization though I know quite a few people in the business now. Again I might be biased by proximity given someone like Wes is probably about the best forecaster you will ever come across. I think opportunities outside NWS/gov have grown a bit recently so I'm sure there is a lot of talent out there... I know a number of really great private sector mets. I guess I feel like the science has been advanced the most by gov despite any gov issues tho.

 

And I'm not too familiar with LWX employees although I have several friends scattered across the country who don't hold that particular office in high regard -- I've been around some other offices especially during grad school and it's amazing how different the procedures from office to office can be so basically the performance of a given office seems to be highly correlated to the tone set by the management structure. 

 

I won't belabor the point as it's been mentioned before but it's frustrating to see how slowly the gears of bureaucracy moves in adapting to change and how that translates to the performance of a work force -- i work in a NOAA building as a visiting scientist (so not a fed) but just working has completely soured me towards a federal position compared to the freedom of my current position (university researcher). 

[zgummy]

It's not a CYA.... it's being honest. We give our best bet and then present alternative possibilities.  If someone thinks they have a better way to present the uncertainty, I'd love to hear it/see it.

 

I don't have a negative opinion of CWG or NWS.  But I do consider them two separate entities producing differing products.  CWG has the flexibility to post a weather discussion and cover possible scenarios.   NWS has to give a single forecast.

 

And as others have posted.  Weather forecasting is certainly uncertain.  Its amazing to me that there are many talented weather-smart folks posting here that bash the NWS for not being able to accurately predict the future 100% of the time.