Powerball Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Might as well post the 12z NOGAPS for the LOLs just to segway us into the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Something about the GFS solution is odd. It keeps the H5 longwave trough basically stationary but has the sfc frontal boundary progressively move to the SE. My initial thinking is that the GFS (and other models) may be too far south with this threat attm. Hey SSC, ready for your blizzard in Edmonton tonight and tommorow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Hey SSC, ready for your blizzard in Edmonton tonight and tommorow? Winds/visibilities aren't going to be strong/low enough for a true blizzard and amounts are nothing extraordinary (4-8"). I'll enjoy it though. I am not going to enjoy the extreme cold midweek though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Winds/visibilities aren't going to be strong/low enough for a true blizzard and amounts are nothing extraordinary (4-8"). I'll enjoy it though. I am not going to enjoy the extreme cold midweek though. Calgary loks like a better chance at seeing blizzard conditions. That's the big downfall of living in Edmonton during the winter is those FRIGID temps. Will definitely be a shock to the system for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 not badDTW special on the GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 DTW special on the GEM? Looks like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 EURO looks more suppressed than the GFS but at least what it's showing at the surface jibes with what's going on aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The differences at 144 between the EURO and the GEM/GFS are huge. While the latter models still have the trough centered over the northern Plains, EURO has ejected it into northern Quebec/Labrador. EURO is bad news for the northern part of the subforum in the short-run but it's already trying to carve out the next trough along the west coast. Might be a D9-10 monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The differences at 144 between the EURO and the GEM/GFS are huge. While the latter models still have the trough centered over the northern Plains, EURO has ejected it into northern Quebec/Labrador. EURO is bad news for the northern part of the subforum in the short-run but it's already trying to carve out the next trough along the west coast. Might be a D9-10 monster. The EURO has been very consistent in showing that D9-10 storm. Verbatim it's a front end dump followed by rain. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z GGEM snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z GGEM snowfall. GGEM_120113_12z.png Where do you guys get these snowfall maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Where do you guys get these snowfall maps? There weatherbell's. I'm being safe and cropping out where it's from. Not so concerned with the GEM, but the EURO I make sure I crop out what I only want. ... or I draw them out myself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Where do you guys get these snowfall maps? They are Weatherbell paid maps. The mods have said it's ok to post the GFS/GEM maps, but don't post the Euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 So depending on your model of choice, anywhere from mid Michigan to Kentucky is under the gun for the late week threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 NWS ILN going with 25% 12z Euro and 75% 12z GFS. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE ISSUES WITH TIMING AND RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH MAJOR SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS TO AFFECT OUR REGION. LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODELS...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A 25 PERCENT 12Z ECMWF AND A 75 PERCENT 12Z GFS. WE ARE GETTING TO THE POINT IN THE FORECAST WHERE DIURNAL RISE AND FALL WILL NOT CUT IT WITH FRONTS MOVING THROUGH AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.ON WEDNESDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE CARVING ITSELF OUT OVER THE WESTERN U.S. FIRST WEATHER ISSUE IS THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY THAT WILL EJECT FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO CENTRAL CANADA. GFS IS STRONGER AND FASTER WITH THIS ENERGY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST SVRL RUNS. THIS WILL HAVE FRONTAL IMPLICATIONS THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH AFOREMENTIONED BLEND...IT ALLOWS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS INDICATES. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WAA SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK OUT AND LIKELY POPS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THIS TIME FRAME IS SHAPING UP TO BE INCLEMENT AS COLD FRONT SAGS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES QUASI STATIONARY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG IT. THESE WAVES WILL BRING A SHOT OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MID TO UPR LVL FORCING FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME...COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY SEEP INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE SOME WINTRY PCPN TYPE ISSUES AS LOW LEVELS COOL BUT AIR ABOVE WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL. STILL TO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC GIVEN THE THERMAL FIELD OSCILLATIONS AT THIS POINT SO JUST HAVE RAIN/SNOW MENTIONED. LIKELY POPS STILL SEEM REASONABLE FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH EACH WAVE RIPPLING BY.BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE PCPN OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD GIVE THE REGION A DRY BUT COLD PERIOD OF WEATHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 If you live in the Southern OV, you have to be a little concerned about the potential for icing. Will be interesting to see how the models "trend" the next few days. EDIT: SWS already from the NWS in Paducah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 0z GFS looks to be pretty much similar from before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Well at least some portion of the sub-forum will get something out of this. Moving on to the next potential system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GGEM loading on the snow in central WI. Interesting development. I-70 corridor still in line for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 0z GFS looks to be pretty much similar from before. Actually appears to have expanded a bit on the northwestern edges. 00z gets flurries up to Chicago. 18z was high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 GGEM loading on the snow in central WI. Interesting development. I-70 corridor still in line for snow. No more interesting than the NAM failing at the 84 hour range. The WRF NMM, to counter this, has rain all the way up into far N Wisconsin on Wednesday as the low moves east, and is all rain in the southern half of Wisconsin with WAA precip tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 0z Euro appears to be holding serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Euro shifted just a tad further north with prcp...I think KDTW gets some prcp as well .2 or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 2, 2013 Author Share Posted December 2, 2013 Big changes on the 12z GFS. Brings much warmer temperatures into southern Missouri and eastern Oklahoma and majorly cuts down on accumulation. Brings snow showers to northern Illinois and even eastern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 looks a lot like the CMC. Much further north with the prcp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Lake Superior lake enhancement going wild on the NAM hires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Lake Superior lake enhancement going wild on the NAM hires. Wrong system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Wrong system. I see it as the first wave that breaks from the same piece of energy. The snow up there will spread into the 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I see it as the first wave that breaks from the same piece of energy. The snow up there will spread into the 5th. naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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