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December 5-6, 2013 Winter Storm

mimillman

By mimillman,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

believe it or not, it actually simmered down a bit from it's 12z run, a little colder too.

Actually snowfall totals are higher on the 18z NAM from the 12z run. There is a stripe of 12-18" from southeast IL through southern IN through central OH. 12z NAM barely got to 12" in a couple spots.

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

ILN upped snowfall from 4-7 to 5-8" with the usual locally higher amounts possible.

 

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

INZ050-058-059-OHZ042-051>053-060>062-060500-
/O.CON.KILN.WS.W.0005.131206T0300Z-131207T0600Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-DARKE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
GREENVILLE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...EATON...DAYTON...
XENIA
350 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET THIS EVENING AND THEN TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...LIKELY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
EARLY FRIDAY...LIKELY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN.

 

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snowlover2

snowlover2

Posted
Posted

ILN with a very detailed AFD.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
328 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY BEGINNING THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HEAVY MIXED WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE ENDING
FRIDAY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO...AND A BAND OF GLAZE ICE
ACCUMULATION TOPPED BY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER IN KENTUCKY INTO PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO. HEAVY...POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAIN...WILL IMPACT
PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO. IT WILL MOST
CERTAINLY BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE 60 DEGREE TEMPERATURES
SEEN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. YET ANOTHER
WINTER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED-PHASE
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LINGERING INTO MONDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THAT SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH...BUT MAY STILL HAMPER TRAVEL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIKE WITH MANY SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEMS IN THE OHIO VALLEY...THE
BOTTOM LINE IS A HIGH-CONFIDENCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE
AREA...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WAVY/WAFFLING TRANSITION ZONE AS
ARCTIC AIR SEEPS INTO THE AREA AND IMPINGES ON A VERY ATYPICALLY
WARM AIRMASS. SO WHILE WE FEEL CERTAIN ON MANY AREAS SEEING A GOOD
AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...THE AMOUNTS OF EACH INDIVIDUAL
TYPE ARE PARTICULARLY LOW CONFIDENCE...AND FOR THIS STORM...THAT
LOW CONFIDENCE ZONE IS CENTERED SQUARELY ON THE I-71 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING CINCINNATI...WILMINGTON...AND COLUMBUS.

LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS INDICATE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE WFO
ILN FORECAST AREA TO THE EAST. BAND OF RAIN/STORMS ACCOMPANYING
THIS HAS SHIFTED EAST...AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE IMPACT OF
INCREASING DEEP-LAYERED FRONTOGENESIS /FGEN/ AS RAIN/MIX IS
DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST AND SPREADING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD
THE AREA. SFC TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING ACROSS WRN IND
WHERE FZRA HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED. WHILE MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING
EVENT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THERMODYNAMICS /FGEN FORCING IN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET/...THERE IS A SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WAVE SEEN IN WV/IR LOOPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER OK/KS
SPREADING QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE AREA. BUT UNLIKE MOST
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEMS...THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF 700-500MB CYCLONE OR PV-DRIVEN FORCING...BUT
IT DOES HAVE AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET /UP TO
180KTS AT 250MB BY 18Z FRIDAY OVER ONTARIO/ AS THE MASSIVE/COLD
LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN CENTERED TO OUR WEST IMPINGES ON
THE STOUT/STUBBORN/WARM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
THE HEIGHT GRADIENT COMPRESSION IS HELPING DRIVE THE INTENSIFYING
JET...AND FGEN FIELDS OVER A DEEP LAYER REALLY RESPOND THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD/DOWNSTREAM OF THE WEAK FEATURE
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THUS...EXPECT WAVES/BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DEFINITE PERIODS OF MORE
INTENSE PRECIPITATION AS THE INDIVIDUAL FGEN REGIONS TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE FLOW.

OF COURSE ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION FORCING IS OCCURRING AS THE
AIRMASS COOLS SLOWLY WITH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR SEEPING IN. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...A LITTLE FASTER AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE DENSITY
OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...AND THUS THE LIKELIHOOD OF A NARROW
RIBBON OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. AND UNFORTUNATELY...AS THAT WEAK
WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST MOVES IN...THIS TRANSITION ZONE SLOWS/STALLS
AND WAFFLES RIGHT OVER THE AREA...AND LENDS TO A MUCH LOWERED
CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINISTIC WINTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE SEEN IN DETERMINISTIC NWP ON 05.12Z RUNS WAS A
SHIFT IN NCEP GUIDANCE /NAM AND GFS/ TO A SLOWER SEEP OF COLDER
AIR ALOFT /OR IN OTHER WORDS A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL/. NON-NCEP GUIDANCE /ECMWF...CMCREG...CMCGLB/ HAVE NOT
WAVERED IN ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO SEEP IN A SHIFT THIS ALL TO
SNOW. SO CHANGES IN TODAY/S FORECAST WERE A NOD TOWARD NCEP
GUIDANCE AND ALLOW MORE POTENTIAL FOR GLAZE-ICE ACCUMULATION VIA
FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-71 INCLUDING
CINCINNATI...WILMINGTON...AND AREAS SOUTH OF COLUMBUS. IN
FACT...TAKEN VERBATIM...THE 05.12Z NAM WOULD ARGUE FOR SIGNIFICANT
/HIGH-IMPACT ICING IN THIS CORRIDOR. POSSIBLE...YES...BUT THIS WAS
A SHIFT IN CONTINUITY FOR THE NAM...AND REALLY HAS VERY LITTLE
SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE 05.12Z GFS SITS AT A VERY
NICE MIDDLE-ROAD...BETWEEN THE NAM AND MUCH COLDER NON-NCEP
GUIDANCE. THUS USED GFS THERMAL PROFILES TWEAKED A BIT COLDER TO
FIT IT SQUARELY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 05.12Z DETERMINISTIC NWP
ENVELOPE...NOT NEARLY AS "ICE STORM" LOOKING AS THE NAM...BUT NOT
NEARLY AS "ALL SNOW" AS THE CMC/ECMWF. PERHAPS NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE THERMAL FIELDS OF THE GFS ALIGN CLOSELY WITH THE
05.09Z SREF MEAN. TOUGH FORECAST...WHEN THE GAMUT FROM SIGNIFICANT
SNOW (6-10") OR SIGNIFICANT ICE (0.25"-0.50") ROUGHLY ARE
JUXTAPOSED ON TOP OF EACH OTHER AMONG GUIDANCE...AND SEPARATION OF
SAID DISCREPANCIES IS NO MORE THAN A TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES. COBB
TECHNIQUES RUN AT CINCINNATI BEAR THIS OUT...FORECASTING 0.75" ICE
ACCUMULATION AND 3" SNOW /NAM/ TO 0.50" ICE AND 9" OF SNOW
/GFS/...TO VERY LITTLE ICE AND 6"+ SNOW /ECMWF/. THUS...IT GOES
WITHOUT SAYING THAT GRADIENTS IN MY FORECAST TODAY ARE LIKELY
OFF...BUT REPRESENT THE CONSENSUS OF SFC AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS. FORECAST DETAILS STILL APT TO SHIFT.

THE 05.12Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION SPREADING
IN THIS EVENING WILL MIX/CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IN THE WEST
BY MID EVENING AND SPREAD INTO THE I-71 CORRIDOR NEAR OR JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FAIRLY RAPID CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED FAR WEST
INCLUDING SERN IND/WCNTL OH AS COLD AIR DRIVES IN...BUT SOUNDINGS
"STALL" THE EROSION OF WARM AIR ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z IN THE
I-71 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING...EVEN
CONSIDERING WET BULB PROCESSES...MAINTAINING A PARTIALLY MELTING
ELEVATED WARM LAYER UP TO 1.5C...LIKELY NOT WARM ENOUGH FOR
COMPLETE MELTING /AND THUS A HIGHER FZRA THREAT/. CROSS SECTIONS
NORMAL TO THICKNESSES IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET
SUGGEST A SLOPED REGION OF STRONG FGEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...INDICATING TRANSIENT BANDS OF HEAVIER PCPN...AND
SOME QUITE HEAVY LIKELY FRIDAY CONSIDERING AMPLE/DEEP NEGATIVE
SATURATED GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY ATOP THE FGEN FORCING
REGION AND VERTICAL MOTION MAXIMUM. THIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
RELEASE OF SLANTWISE INSTBY BY FGEN CIRCULATIONS. STILL SEEING TWO
DISTINCT PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL...ONE
TONIGHT...AND ONE LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE
LATTER OF WHICH WILL DRIVE MOST OF THE WINTRY ACCUMS...AND MAY
INCLUDE 1"/HR SNOW RATES FM SERN IND UP THROUGH THE DAYTON AREA TO
WEST OF CMH.

SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BOTH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL /6-10"/
FROM SRN IND INTO WCNTL OH...AND A BAND OF HEAVY MIXED
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE I-71 CORRIDOR. SOUNDINGS LOOK
AWFULLY SLEETY IN THIS CORRIDOR...BUT WE/RE IN THE NOISE LEVEL OF
MODEL ACCURACY IN TERMS OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WHERE A DEGREE
EITHER DIRECTION COULD CHANGE THE NAME OF THE GAME...SO THERE COULD
BE SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT GLAZE ICE IN THIS REGION TOO.
JUST TOO TOUGH TO TELL. FURTHER EAST IT APPEARS THE WAVERING NATURE
OF THE THERMAL ZONE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN...AND THIS AREA MAY NEED SOME FLOOD HEADLINES AS WE SEE THIS
EVOLVE. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A STRONG GRADIENT OF WINTER ACCUMS
ACROSS NERN KY INTO SCNTL OH...AND HAVE TRIED TO GRADIENT THIS AS
BEST AS POSSIBLE IN GRIDDED FORECAST.

 

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wishforsnow

wishforsnow

Posted
Posted

Looks like about 7 inches of system snow yesterday. Then after I got home it mixed with freezing rain. The roads were just awful. I spun the front wheels on my 4x4 a few times navigating the hills here. The school bus got stuck right in front of my house. Luckily, someone was coming by and had a plow on their truck. They plowed a path and the bus was able to get going. Then today the Bay field bomber hit us. Snowing like crazy all day. The plows can't keep up with it. A big semi got stuck in Houghton going up the hill by Econo Foods. But he finally drove the truck forward enough to get the back tire on some sand and he got going. I have seen it so bad up that hill they had to pull the semi's up the hill. 

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Thunder Road

Thunder Road

Posted
Posted

An inch isn't much, but it would still be a quite a bust up here if the 18z NAM verified, since LOT has us with 20% POPs for tomorrow with the afternoon package.

 

Of course, the 0z NAM shunted the precip shield back south significantly, so it's probably safe to assume it was just a fluke for us NW IN people.

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