SJonesWX Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The 2002 comparison continues with the change to cold maybe a week earlier in October in2002. The pattern relaxed and many were worried the previous winter was going to come back but the relaxation period was short and the pattern got established. We were in fairly deep winter by thanksgiving and off to the races thereafter. i dont remember oct/nov 2002, but i remember in december we had an early snow storm, then the pattern warmed up a bit. whatever snow had fallen melted. then i am sure most of us remember christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Look at those SST anomaly products on the CPC page. All those nice warm anomalies develop and then poof...lol. Can't say it's a surprise like you said, well forecasted overall. Yep, the easterly trade winds chew up the subsurface warm anomalies as they rise...which is why when you have a solid easterly wind burst and -PDO regime, it is hard to develop an El Nino. That upwelled cold water from the east rides along the upper most levels of the waters and mixes out those warm subsurface anomalies further west as they try and rise. The last two summers/autumns have been great examples of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Yep, the easterly trade winds chew up the subsurface warm anomalies as they rise...which is why when you have a solid easterly wind burst and -PDO regime, it is hard to develop an El Nino. That upwelled cold water from the east rides along the upper most levels of the waters and mixes out those warm subsurface anomalies further west as they try and rise. The last two summers/autumns have been great shiatty examples of this. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 i dont remember oct/nov 2002, but i remember in december we had an early snow storm, then the pattern warmed up a bit. whatever snow had fallen melted. then i am sure most of us remember christmas Dec 10-20, 2002 was a pretty mild period. We had a cutter in there too around Dec 19 or so. Then after that, we cooled back to near normal (but not very cold) and then the hammer dropped in January and lasted for about 6-7 weeks through most of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The period between Dec. 24-Jan. 4, 2002-2003 was great, especially with the back to back noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Yep, the easterly trade winds chew up the subsurface warm anomalies as they rise...which is why when you have a solid easterly wind burst and -PDO regime, it is hard to develop an El Nino. That upwelled cold water from the east rides along the upper most levels of the waters and mixes out those warm subsurface anomalies further west as they try and rise. The last two summers/autumns have been great examples of this. I know. I don't look at it everyday but when I do..you can see just that. With the MJO sort of stuck there..well at least the conv forcing based on OLR stuck further west..it's gonna allow easterly winds to move west towards lower pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The period between Dec. 24-Jan. 4, 2002-2003 was great, especially with the back to back noreasters. If you were east of 128/I-95, it was heart breaking...west of there got pounded while it was a lot of rain east. Esp the Jan 3-4, 2003 storm. The Christmas storm did give decent snow to BOS-PVD but the Jan storm didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 What Will said. That was not a fun 10 days in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 What Will said. That was not a fun 10 days in my hood. that winter was much more second half friendly for E regions...sort of keeps it out of the top favorites category for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 that winter was much more second half friendly for E regions...sort of keeps it out of the top favorites category for me. I had enough earlier in December and a tad during those 10 days to prevent swallowing an uzi, but it was not easy. At least it was chilly. I thought it was another interior winter until a few weeks later. I drove around T-day morning to get my snow fix...lol. Just had to go like 8 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 that winter was much more second half friendly for E regions...sort of keeps it out of the top favorites category for me. Dec 2 and Dec 5 were good for SE areas, but then it didn't get better again until January. But both of those were pretty good for so early in the season down in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Dec 2 and Dec 5 were good for SE areas, but then it didn't get better again until January. But both of those were pretty good for so early in the season down in that region. yeah. any snow is good snow i guess...but early season ones always feel like a tease...and then following that period with xmas through mid-january was tough. it definitely improved thereafter and was quite cold too. i just always kind of give that a "B" or "B+" when i think most give it a higher grade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 yeah. any snow is good snow i guess...but early season ones always feel like a tease...and then following that period with xmas through mid-january was tough. it definitely improved thereafter and was quite cold too. i just always kind of give that a "B" or "B+" when i think most give it a higher grade When I sat back and thought about this yesterday...areas like interior SE MA had winter threats from late October into early April. I mean talk about a weenie period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 OT: did quincy survive his chase trip?? he's been absent it seems like on here and the twitter-verse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 When I sat back and thought about this yesterday...areas like interior SE MA had winter threats from late October into early April. I mean talk about a weenie period. i know most would throw up in their mouth...but if i could chose i'd actually take 03-04 over 02-03 just because of how anomalously cold it was. that, to me, was how winter is "supposed" to be. just brutal, bring society to a standstill, cold. obviously...more than .15" of precip would have been nice...but that was just an awesome winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 i know most would throw up in their mouth...but if i could chose i'd actually take 03-04 over 02-03 just because of how anomalously cold it was. that, to me, was how winter is "supposed" to be. just brutal, bring society to a standstill, cold. obviously...more than .15" of precip would have been nice...but that was just an awesome winter. Well December sure started out with a bang. I smoked too much altostratus for me to appreciate that winter, but the cold was something else. I'll never forget the steaming CC canal replaces by icebergs a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 i know most would throw up in their mouth...but if i could chose i'd actually take 03-04 over 02-03 just because of how anomalously cold it was. that, to me, was how winter is "supposed" to be. just brutal, bring society to a standstill, cold. obviously...more than .15" of precip would have been nice...but that was just an awesome winter. The brutally warm second half of December and furnace February bring that winter down a lot for me. January 2004 was pretty incredible, but there were some serious crap periods in large chunks of the rest of that winter. Kind of like 1989-1990...Dec 1989 was incredible for cold, but then we basically roasted for the next 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Well December sure started out with a bang. I smoked too much altostratus for me to appreciate that winter, but the cold was something else. I'll never forget the steaming CC canal replaces by icebergs a week later. haha...yeah i think most feel the same and i can appreciate that. i've just never seen anything like that winter...and don't know if i will again. the ice was just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 If you were east of 128/I-95, it was heart breaking...west of there got pounded while it was a lot of rain east. Esp the Jan 3-4, 2003 storm. The Christmas storm did give decent snow to BOS-PVD but the Jan storm didn't. That was Albany's snowiest 12 day period on record with almost 4 feet of synoptic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The brutally warm second half of December and furnace February bring that winter down a lot for me. January 2004 was pretty incredible, but there were some serious crap periods in large chunks of the rest of that winter. Kind of like 1989-1990...Dec 1989 was incredible for cold, but then we basically roasted for the next 2 months. i think the fact that the cold fell during the heart of mid-winter is what seals that winter for me as so good. there were days when i took trips over to the bay and it seriously looked like barrow, alaska (minus the darkness)...just white as far as you could see and that bitter cold sky where everything just looks like those pictures i used to see when i was little on the weather channel of International Falls, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 The analog years are pretty mixed for November going forward. Some stayed quite cold and others flipped back to very mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Funny how the nino years show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Phil. QUINCY tweeted several times one with a link to his trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Phil. QUINCY tweeted several times one with a link to his trip ah. ok. it was more of a joke anyway. good to know though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Funny how the nino years show up.Interesting, nino like pattern with no nino? What's fascinating about all this is just when someone thinks they have a grasp on teleconnections the atmosphere acts differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I think in the heads of some, a pattern relaxation = torch. I'm not sure where all the passive aggressive posts of random tweet pics fit in. In any case, it should get more active and possibly white for some? Would think one of these storms gets someone in NNE or NY State at the very least? I really like the LES prospects for the time being..the whole upper low coming down like that doesnt really show much storminess chances at least in the next 10 days, but we will see. i think flakes will fly in some form for the interior folk at least. Not to mention the record buffalo event from 2006 is a date showing up on the cpc analogs there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 I really like the LES prospects for the time being..the whole upper low coming down like that doesnt really show much storminess chances at least in the next 10 days, but we will see. i think flakes will fly in some form for the interior folk at least. Not to mention the record buffalo event from 2006 is a date showing up on the cpc analogs there. That was incredible. That thing was like a stationary line of tstms on lightning detection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Quite a potent system coming up Thursday night. Maybe a rumble of thunder for some in western areas into NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Dec 10-20, 2002 was a pretty mild period. We had a cutter in there too around Dec 19 or so. Then after that, we cooled back to near normal (but not very cold) and then the hammer dropped in January and lasted for about 6-7 weeks through most of February. Thru mid-March for NNE - my temps 3/1-16 were 11F below avg. Most of the snow stayed south, however, though the 7" in mid-Nov began a snowpack that lasted into April. Also, the long cold period 1976-77 ended abruptly during the 2nd week of a very mild March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 16, 2013 Share Posted October 16, 2013 Storm on the 24th/25th on the 12z GFS is looking like a strong clipper for you guys. Could be a shot at some snow for the Greens and Whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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