Rjay Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Not sure we are going to see clearing yea agreed. Maybe parts of NJ a bit later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Been raining for the last hour here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Based on current radar, the WRF looks a little too slow. The 12z HRRR has the squall line moving into W NJ by between 2pm-3pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The showers and clouds over Northeast NJ are really hampering the development of any surface based instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The showers and clouds over Northeast NJ are really hampering the development of any surface based instability. The breaks are also filling in with more spotty showers developing to the SW. I think the window for more surface-based instability is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I remember a similar event around this time last year. During the afternoon the winds were crazy, low clouds racing across the sky. We were under a tornado watch but the thin squall line moved through with a quick downpour and unimpressive winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I remember a similar event around this time last year. During the afternoon the winds were crazy, low clouds racing across the sky. We were under a tornado watch but the thin squall line moved through with a quick downpour and unimpressive winds. This is a completely different setup. We didn't have such a strong LLJ to work with and the timing was different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Getting some clearing now. Sun is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Some clearing going on now over the Woodbridge area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun peaking out here...did a trimming job with many rain delays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Some breaks trying to come up from CNJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 4k has sun after these showers pass so i think we are right on time with everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 DC and BWI just had wind gusts 41mph and 46mph with the t-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Blue sky's to my south in Queens - 4k looks pretty similar to now then 2 hours later (well see) (HRRR) agrees too - It may depend on the cells the form in-front of the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Getting some pretty impressive gusts already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The main line is getting very close to PA/ NJ border. They are other cells popping up in front of it over the Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Gusted to 30mph here w/ no convection. Should see widespread 40-50mph gusts if the line holds together. LLJ quite strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Gusted to 30mph here w/ no convection. Should see widespread 40-50mph gusts if the line holds together. LLJ quite strong. I agree. JFK just had a gust to 38mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 1000 j/kg cape creeping towards us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Storms on the line are starting to show rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Very windy here with frequent gusts over 30mph now. Peak gust 34mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun is continuing to shine on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun has been destabilizing the atmosphere for a few hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun is continuing to shine on Long Island. Windy as well. Gusting 35-40mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun is out here with temps close to 80 in west central somerset county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun is out here with temps close to 80 in west central somerset county The strongest part of the line which is also warned seems to be heading right towards you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The strongest part of the line which is also warned seems to be heading right towards you. Very tall cumulus/cumulonimbus to my west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like the line is strengthening as it heads east, which is very unusual since most lines rapidly weaken. That extra sun probably did wonders, let's see what happens. It's definitely already pretty windy with plenty of leaves coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 60% chance for another watch for LI and New England soon: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0126 PM CDT MON OCT 07 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND NWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 071826Z - 072030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS ACROSS UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH 543 MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE WW AROUND 2000 UTC...AND THIS MAY WARRANT DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES IS MOVING EWD AROUND 25-30 KT FROM ERN NY TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION TAKES THE LINE E OF UPSTREAM TORNADO WATCH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 2000 UTC. BUOYANCY ACROSS THE MCD AREA WILL REMAIN MARGINAL -- SBCAPE AOB 500 J/KG -- WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE STUNTING INSOLATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND WHERE SFC HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO SOME EXTENT WHILE PROVIDING A LOCALIZED BOOST TO PBL-DERIVED BUOYANCY. NWD-DIRECTED HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS IN THIS REGION AFFIRM THE COINCIDENCE OF A DEEPER PBL WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF 40-50-KT TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THAT EXTENDS BELOW 1 KM AGL. THIS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS/LEWP STRUCTURES. WITH 0-1-KM SRH OF 150-350 M2/S2 ACCOMPANYING AN INTENSE...CYCLONE-LEADING LLJ...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND TO LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY OF CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS E OF WW 543...OWING TO THE LIMITED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL FURTHER DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. ..COHEN/HART.. 10/07/2013 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Just went through here in NW NJ. Very weak with a few gusts of maybe 30MPH. Heavy rain for about 5 minutes... Now moderate rain and breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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