phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Per recon, it looks like Ingrid has weakened some... perhaps back down to 65 knots. I don't think Ingrid will intensify before landfall, Manual simply got too big and strong before landfall and Ingrid is running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Per recon, it looks like Ingrid has weakened some... perhaps back down to 65 knots. I don't think Ingrid will intensify before landfall, Manual simply got too big and strong before landfall and Ingrid is running out of time. Ingrid has you up and down like a yo-yo. She's gotten inside your head and sparked a manic-depressive cycle. :hugz: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Ingrid has you up and down like a yo-yo. She's gotten inside your head and sparked a manic-depressive cycle. :hugz: despite the weaker FL winds, they did just released a dropsonde that splashed down at 76 knots! Despite the weaker flight level winds, it appears the deep convection on the NE corner is still sustaining those 75 knots winds. The 00z ECMWF (which I just looked at) has been sharing my yo-yo like intensity sentiments, now looking like it has a period of RI occurring the last 6-12 hours before landfall (just like CUmet was indicating) as the shear decreases as Manuel moves fully ashore. We'll see, I'd like to see Manuel completely ashore first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 I think Ingrid will still intensify. Manuel will quickly move out of the way and the effects of it upon Ingrid will begin to decrease. I say a landfall around about 80 kt is most likely, although 65-90 kt is possible. I should note, with the bursting convection despite Manuel's shear, I have no doubt that Ingrid would easily be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane upon landfall had it not been for Manuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 despite the weaker FL winds, they did just released a dropsonde that splashed down at 76 knots! Despite the weaker flight level winds, it appears the deep convection on the NE corner is still sustaining those 75 knots winds. The 00z ECMWF (which I just looked at) has been sharing my yo-yo like intensity sentiments, now looking like it has a period of RI occurring the last 6-12 hours before landfall (just like CUmet was indicating) as the shear decreases as Manuel moves fully ashore. We'll see, I'd like to see Manuel completely ashore first! Agreed. I can't wait for it to get ashore and just die already. Ugh. So funny Re: the surface winds. I think Ingrid will still intensify. Manuel will quickly move out of the way and the effects of it upon Ingrid will begin to decrease. I say a landfall around about 80 kt is most likely, although 65-90 kt is possible. I should note, with the bursting convection despite Manuel's shear, I have no doubt that Ingrid would easily be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane upon landfall had it not been for Manuel. Agreed-- this thing would have gone to town without that d*mn EPAC cyclone. Ugh! Drives me nuts thinking about it. It's amazing how resilient this core has been in face of all that shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Two fixes in a 20 minute period... the pressure is holding steady and as we saw from the dropsonde before, the max winds are occurring surprisingly close to the surface. 700 hPa flight level winds are surprisingly 10-15 knots weaker than the surface winds. The indicates that the circulation is strong but shallow which may be helping it to remain more resilient. The center remains aligned to 700 hPa which is good to see in the face of this shear as well. Motion is nearly due NW and slow (fix at 22.33N 95.46W) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Two fixes in a 20 minute period... the pressure is holding steady and as we saw from the dropsonde before, the max winds are occurring surprisingly close to the surface. 700 hPa flight level winds are surprisingly 10-15 knots weaker than the surface winds. The indicates that the circulation is strong but shallow which may be helping it to remain more resilient. The center remains aligned to 700 hPa which is good to see in the face of this shear as well. Motion is nearly due NW and slow (fix at 22.33N 95.46W) Cool-- thanks for this summary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Last fix from each recon mission are almost due west...might have been a wobble, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Last fix from each recon mission are almost due west...might have been a wobble, though The shear seems to be taking an increasing toll on it the more west it moves. Definitely more substantial erosion to the cold tops on the west side of the system. Shear needs to relax if it's going to get another burst, or even hold its own... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Strange forecast by the NHC, but I can see where they are coming from. Take Ingrid up to 70 knots in 12 hours then level off the intensity until landfall. They are banking on the GFS being correct with the strong NW flow developing in the next 12 hours producing moderate shear over Ingrid and preventing it from intensifying. I guess thats still possible if the outflow plume with Manual expands significantly in the next 24 hours, but I think the much lower shear from the ECMWF is more likely. Another reminder to me of how good computer modeling has become in this day. IMO, the unsung heroes of meteorology are the programmers of those engines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Just read the Discussion, and-- as I suspected from those IR images-- they're basically calling it a hurricane this advisory purely for continuity reasons. That is one sorry-looking system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Manuel screw'd the pooch. It would be fine if Ingrid had another 48 hrs, but we may be only looking at 12-18 hrs of regeneration here once Manuel dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Manny looks better than Ingrid..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 All you needed to do over the last 12-18hrs is look at satellite and notice the shear impinging on it. Shear is progged to weaken tonight, but the flow from Manuel certainly isn't going to just stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Sheared "hurricane" in the Gulf...in September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 15, 2013 Author Share Posted September 15, 2013 Manuel has made landfall. Hopefully it's dies a fast death over Mexico so Ingrid doesn't look so pathetic at its landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 All you needed to do over the last 12-18hrs is look at satellite and notice the shear impinging on it. Shear is progged to weaken tonight, but the flow from Manuel certainly isn't going to just stop. Looks like the shear has already started to lessen. Let's see how far it can come back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Aircraft Update: HS3 Global Hawk AV1 ("Over Storm") is currently en-route to Ingrid and will be on station in about 2 hours. NOAA G-IV is doing circles around Ingrid and is half way through the mission. NOAA P-3 is currently warming up the engines on the tarmac of MacDill AFB in Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Aircraft Update: HS3 Global Hawk AV1 ("Over Storm") is currently en-route to Ingrid and will be on station in about 2 hours. NOAA G-IV is doing circles around Ingrid and is half way through the mission. NOAA P-3 is currently warming up the engines on the tarmac of MacDill AFB in Tampa. Josh ran down to MX and NOAA is flying everything they have into this thing. I think everyone realizes this may be the only work they get to do this year. In most years this storm would get probably 2 HH missions a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 15, 2013 Author Share Posted September 15, 2013 12z GFS is in. Shows Ingrid becoming much better organized prior to landfall as shear slackens and also shows it tracking much slower. Landfall doesn't occur until 3z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 12z Euro shows shear staying fairly strong through 0z tonight, then Ingrid re-intensifying from 0z tonight through landfall at 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Visible starting to look better, I think center will be completely wrapped soon and weakening trend will reverse. I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 With shear relaxing, we may see an additional 6-12 hours over water. We have seen several systems ramp up before making landfall along the Mexico Gulf Coast over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 The West side is really ramping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 It does look like the shear is ever so slightly beginning to lessen. Its really quite amazing how much the models continue to waffle on solutions. The 00z ECMWF had Ingrid inland at 9z tomorrow and now its more like 21z. The GFS is even slower. Both models this morning were about 12-24 hours faster... potentially because they expected the system to decouple which would have allowed the stronger low-level flow to take over. Instead the system is still fighting, and since the strongest vorticity and convective vigor is east of the llc. So if the storm is attempting to become vertically aligned, the deep convection must start to rotate into the western quadrant and axisymmetrize around the circulation. This process often slows down the initial motion of the low-level vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Also some tidbits from the G-IV mission today.... most of the dropsondes showed the shear is all occurring in the outflow layer between 150-300 hPa. Thus its relatively shallow shear that has allowed the mid-level vortex and low-level vortex to remain aligned (up to around 350 hPa). 447mb 50° (from the NE) 19 knots (22 mph) 398mb 80° (from the E) 24 knots (28 mph) 362mb 60° (from the ENE) 10 knots (12 mph) 336mb 355° (from the N) 3 knots (3 mph) 318mb 290° (from the WNW) 10 knots (12 mph) 298mb 260° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph) 287mb 300° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph) 255mb 340° (from the NNW) 12 knots (14 mph) 194mb 315° (from the NW) 13 knots (15 mph) 185mb 330° (from the NNW) 10 knots (12 mph) 156mb 265° (from the W) 13 knots (15 mph) 149mb 185° (from the S) 16 knots (18 mph) This is an important observation because there isn't any flow undercutting the outflow layer, and it should be easy to tell if and when the shear starts relaxing on WV or IR later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 984.0mb extrap, 750mb fix at roughly 22.75N, 96.0W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 984.0mb extrap, 750mb fix at roughly 22.75N, 96.0W Thats further east and more embedded in the convection. That also means Ingrid is moving slower than expected by the NHC (which just pegged the position at 22.7°N 96.3°W) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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