Remnants of Ingrid

[phil882]

I'm actually surprised how good Ingrid looks this morning.  Was not expecting all this deep convection, nor did I expect these banding features or the fairly-decent symmetry.

 

The storm is continuing to move NE away from the Mexican coastline as well... its already on the east side of the NHC track cone. 

[phil882]

Last pass has the pressure down to 989mb... max flight level winds were 63 knots and SFMR 58 knots (rain contaminated). Slow deepening continues. 

[phil882]

[HurricaneJosh]

Holy sh*t!  That's a 'cane.

[phil882]

Holy sh*t!  That's a 'cane.

 

as the NOAA-P3 leaves the Air-Force has just arrived to take its place. Its already recording some pretty impressive obs. with 65 knot flight level winds in the NE quad and 62 knot SFMR with only a 9 mm/hr rain rate (though it was stared as suspect). I'd say perhaps go 55-60 knots for the intermediate advisory. 

 

In addition these strong winds are now occurring much closer to the center, another sign that an inner core is attempting to become established. The NE movement continues as well.

 

9:32:44Z    20.02N 94.72W

11:22:30Z  20.23N 94.55W

[Solak]

AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS

LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE PLANES NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...

LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST

NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. INGRID SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY SUNDAY

NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL APPROACH THE COAST IN

THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105

KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY

TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR

FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.

[phil882]

AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WASLOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE PLANES NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEASTNEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE INFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. INGRID SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARDTHE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY SUNDAYNIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL APPROACH THE COAST INTHE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BYTONIGHT OR SUNDAY.   TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KMFROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY BOTH NOAA AND AIRFORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES. 

 

Wee bit outside of the cone... the GFS and ECMWF look like they have the right idea on the eastward side of the guidance envelope. 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

That's a big jump NE from the last advisory.  Methinks it might partially be the result of a center relocation.

[bluewave]

Manuel doesn't look very healthy this morning. Both the ECMWF and GFS had no clue there was going to be a huge MCS that developed about 5 degrees west of the system that likely kept it from ingesting the best moist enthalpy flux. This has limited convection near the center despite the fact that shear is low and the SSTs are near 30C. In contrast Ingrid's deepest convection is focused near the center, and while the storm still has a larger wind core that will need to tighten up, the pressures are lowering and the winds are increasing gradually. Since we are pretty much at the Diurnal Max for convection, it seems like Ingrid is winning the convective battle currently, and this could have implications on whether or not Ingrid will face substantial shear from the outflow of Manual. 

 

 

It's very impressive how persistent that general circulation pattern has been there in recent years with numerous developments.

 

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

healthy looking system...feel like the bust potential is on the high side.

 

josh...you headed down there if things hold? 

[phil882]

It's very impressive how persistent that general circulation pattern has been there in recent years with numerous developments.

 

A.gif

 

B.png

 

Yes, there have been an abnormal amount of gyres over the last few years.... just this year there was a pseudo gyre back in May/June that formed Andrea, and then there was one at the beginning of this month associated with Ivo/Juliette/Kiko. On average you would expect roughly 1.3 per year (31 year average from 1979-2010) so having three in a year is abnormal. 

[Ryneone]

The entire guidence envelope has moved north a bit but the NHC kept the land fall point in the same place?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_10.gif

[Solak]

Grain of salt... but FWIW...

 

@BigJoeBastardi 51m

as per http://Weatherbell.com  idea from yesterday, Ingrid Stronger, further north. Should be cat 2 or 3 by landfall Monday (yeah, I follow him too )

[HurricaneJosh]

healthy looking system...feel like the bust potential is on the high side.

 

josh...you headed down there if things hold? 

 

Yep!  I'm pretty close to pulling the trigger.  I like what I'm seeing.  This one looks good to me.

[phil882]

Strange forecast by the NHC, but I can see where they are coming from. Take Ingrid up to 70 knots in 12 hours then level off the intensity until landfall. They are banking on the GFS being correct with the strong NW flow developing in the next 12 hours producing moderate shear over Ingrid and preventing it from intensifying. I guess thats still possible if the outflow plume with Manual expands significantly in the next 24 hours, but I think the much lower shear from the ECMWF is more likely. 

[eyewall]

New forecast is a daylight landfall which is obviously something a chaser would want.

[CoastalWx]

I notice models also developing a decent jet to the east of Ingrid which might enhance venting as well. Most models have this at 200mb.

[Chinook]

Storm landfalls on both sides of Mexico

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Assuming Manuel even shears Ingrid, it's forecast to move inland tomorrow morning while Ingrid isn't forecast to until Tuesday morning. Why would the shear remain high after Manuel moved onshore and dissipated? Avila's forecast doesn't make much sense to me.

[CUmet]

Strange forecast by the NHC, but I can see where they are coming from. Take Ingrid up to 70 knots in 12 hours then level off the intensity until landfall. They are banking on the GFS being correct with the strong NW flow developing in the next 12 hours producing moderate shear over Ingrid and preventing it from intensifying. I guess thats still possible if the outflow plume with Manual expands significantly in the next 24 hours, but I think the much lower shear from the ECMWF is more likely. 

 

I agree with NHC that the shear will increase a bit today, although the effects on intensity may be negligible given how resilient the vortex has been thus far.  But the idea that the shear will remain high beyond Sunday afternoon is something that I absolutely do not agree with given the upper air fields being depicted by the ECMWF and GFS.  And something to note about the SHIPS shear values is that the offical track used in the SHIPS is quite different from the GFS vortex position, to the tune of about 190 km off at 12 hours, which is going to throw the SHIPS shear forecast off some.

[bluewave]

We'll see what the 12z Euro comes up with, but the 0z also had a burst of strengthening today

with leveling off around 0Z until landfall in a few days.

[gkrangers]

Any microwave passes coming up?

[Ed Lizard]

I agree with NHC that the shear will increase a bit today, although the effects on intensity may be negligible given how resilient the vortex has been thus far.  But the idea that the shear will remain high beyond Sunday afternoon is something that I absolutely do not agree with given the upper air fields being depicted by the ECMWF and GFS.  And something to note about the SHIPS shear values is that the offical track used in the SHIPS is quite different from the GFS vortex position, to the tune of about 190 km off at 12 hours, which is going to throw the SHIPS shear forecast off some.

 

Hmm, so if GFS builds a healthy anticyclone from its TC, and the NHC track is different, SHIPS will shear the TC from its own anticyclone, which is, in fact, above the GFS cyclone.  I guess that is why they have track/intensity models like the GFDL and HWRF.  Shame they don't work better.

[wxmeddler]

[phil882]

I agree with NHC that the shear will increase a bit today, although the effects on intensity may be negligible given how resilient the vortex has been thus far.  But the idea that the shear will remain high beyond Sunday afternoon is something that I absolutely do not agree with given the upper air fields being depicted by the ECMWF and GFS.  And something to note about the SHIPS shear values is that the offical track used in the SHIPS is quite different from the GFS vortex position, to the tune of about 190 km off at 12 hours, which is going to throw the SHIPS shear forecast off some.

 

Good point... the GFS was swinging Ingrid out way to the east before bringing it back to the mainland, quite a bit different from the NHC forecast track.

 

NOAA G-IV is in right now with some dropsondes. Already revealing some interesting things.

 

Dropsonde at 20.2N 96.3W

 

654mb 295° (from the WNW) 6 knots (7 mph) 577mb 290° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph) 552mb 320° (from the NW) 11 knots (13 mph) 485mb 320° (from the NW) 11 knots (13 mph) 468mb 295° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph) 443mb 310° (from the NW) 11 knots (13 mph) 393mb 275° (from the W) 14 knots (16 mph) 357mb 275° (from the W) 17 knots (20 mph) 197mb 20° (from the NNE) 12 knots (14 mph) 193mb 5° (from the N) 13 knots (15 mph) 178mb 5° (from the N) 10 knots (12 mph) 163mb 300° (from the WNW) 6 knots (7 mph)

 

This is a good deal lower than the 30+ know flow expected in the same region on the 00z and 06z GFS. 

 

On and here is a relatively recent microwave pass... not quite a closed eyewall, but close (its not as well defined on the 85GHz):

 

[Martin]

Looks decent on IR

[gkrangers]

Yep, quite good.  Have to think recon finds a minimal hurricane later this afternoon.

[phil882]

Nice OLR shot in 51 hours (from the 12z run)

 

[apm]

Can see an eye clearing out on visible now.

[Srain]

Can see an eye clearing out on visible now.