Scott747 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I'd wait on pressure until the other recon flight gets there and confirms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I'd wait on pressure until the other recon flight gets there and confirms.... see Josh's thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I'm not surprised actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Next pass will cross the center...but from the extrapolated pressure look, it appears it will confirm the pressure drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Extrapolated 989.7mb ...similar to last pass Edit: And it actually missed the center, it was probably a quick pass to confirm previous obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I saw it coming when the LLC was exposed, that screamed RI! Just like Nate! Nate became a hurricane while the center was still partially exposed. The difference here is that it looks like convection is starting to wrap around the center, so this might be an earnest period of intensification coming up. On the negative side, it looks like the RMW are still pretty large, so some of this pressure decrease is not necessarily a sign that the inner core has developed, but more of a reflection that its an inner vorticity embedded in lower than normal SLP (due to the broader gyre circulation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I can see this becoming a hurricane by tomorrow maybe even tonight if that convection continues around the center, it even looks like a partial eyewall on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 From the NOAA Hurricane Hunter FB: "The #NOAA G-IV (#NOAA49) encountered moderate turbulence today in#Ingrid. Reports from commercial aircraft nearby of severe turbulence." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 inbound air force recon jumped from a mission level of 925mb to 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 That doesn't happen often. What is going on in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The only time they change mission FL's is when it's turbulent. The NASA aircraft aircraft tracker tracks the flight altitude and the NOAA P-3 was jumping 300ft in 30 sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 The only time they change mission FL's is when it's turbulent. The NASA aircraft aircraft tracker tracks the flight altitude and the NOAA P-3 was jumping 300ft in 30 sec.Right. What I meant is that kind of turbulence is rare for a system with the IR presentation of Ingrid. There doesn't appear to be any dry air nearby to provide CAPE, so...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 That doesn't happen often. What is going on in there? Most likely turbulence... those convective towers are looking pretty impressive currently, and we could be in a surprise period of RI given the recent pressure drop and markedly improved radar presentation. Right. What I meant is that kind of turbulence is rare for a system with the IR presentation of Ingrid. There doesn't appear to be any dry air nearby to provide CAPE, so...? I think anytime you see -70/-80C temps you have to be concerned about turbulence with more robust than expected updrafts. Just because tropical convection doesn't typically have the same updraft velocity that land based convection can obtain doesn't mean it isn't dangerous to fly into (especially at low altitude). I think when a storm reaches a certain intensity (or pressure) it becomes protocol for the air force to fly at a higher altitude as a precaution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I think anytime you see -70/-80C temps you have to be concerned about turbulence with more robust than expected updrafts. Just because tropical convection doesn't typically have the same updraft velocity that land based convection can obtain doesn't mean it isn't dangerous to fly into (especially at low altitude). I think when a storm reaches a certain intensity (or pressure) it becomes protocol for the air force to fly at a higher altitude as a precaution. Of course that's true (esp since they're flying at pressure altitudes). But from my conversations with folks, the worst storms to fly into from a turbulence perspective are the dry air intrusions (because of increased CAPE) and RI situations. At face value, this appears to be neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 (edited with vortex message)000URNT12 KNHC 132302VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013A. 13/22:48:00ZB. 19 deg 15 min N 095 deg 16 min WC. 850 mb 1364 mD. 61 ktE. 022 deg 37 nmF. 109 deg 45 ktG. 024 deg 41 nmH. 993 mbI. 17 C / 1525 mJ. 18 C / 1525 mK. 14 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 12345 / 08O. 0.02 / 1 nmP. AF304 0510A INGRID OB 04MAX FL WIND 45 KT 024/41 22:35:30Z; The NOAA plane fixed was for reference was 19 deg 12 min N 095 deg 20 min W, so it looks like it has moved a bit NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 air force 850mb fix looks to be just SW of 19.25N, 95.25W. 224730 1917N 09516W 8429 01435 9943 +175 +123 104005 007 014 001 00 224800 1915N 09516W 8431 01432 9939 +178 +125 014004 005 015 001 00 224830 1913N 09516W 8427 01437 9938 +180 +126 334009 010 011 001 00 The NOAA plane fixed was for reference was 19 deg 12 min N 095 deg 20 min W, so it looks like it has moved a bit NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Of course that's true (esp since they're flying at pressure altitudes). But from my conversations with folks, the worst storms to fly into from a turbulence perspective are the dry air intrusions (because of increased CAPE) and RI situations. At face value, this appears to be neither. True. I guess the thing is we don't know if the elevation climb was due to turbulence they experienced or just simply because they realized the storm was stronger on radar than first expected and they didn't want to take the risk at 925 hPa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 From the NOAA Hurricane Hunter FB: "The #NOAA G-IV (#NOAA49) encountered moderate turbulence today in#Ingrid. Reports from commercial aircraft nearby of severe turbulence." What would commercial aircraft be doing near 'Ingrid'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 What would commercial aircraft be doing near 'Ingrid'?Going to Veracruz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 That VDM was rather impressive. 60 knots/993 mb EDIT: Usually the VDM filters out the contaminated readings... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Going to Veracruz? I would hope they flew further away from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Of course that's true (esp since they're flying at pressure altitudes). But from my conversations with folks, the worst storms to fly into from a turbulence perspective are the dry air intrusions (because of increased CAPE) and RI situations. At face value, this appears to be neither. The dew point in Mexico city is 54, it could be that air over the higher terrain is advecting into the circulation. Edit: On the south-west quad dropsonde at 17:23 from the G-IV mission there was a 5°C dew point depression at 700mb. That would be right quad and height for the above to show itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 That VDM is rather impressive. 60knots/993mb The 61kt from the VDM was the result of an SFMR reading of 61kt in heavy (27mm/hr) convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I would hope they flew further away from the storm.Why? Tropical systems generally aren't associated with much turbulence (see above discussion) The dew point in Mexico city is 54, it could be that air over the higher terrain is advecting into the circulation.Yeah, I guess with downsloping you could get some surface inflow air that has some DCAPE in it or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I would hope they flew further away from the storm. You would think. Sometimes airlines will nibble at areas that are sigmetted for convection to "test the waters." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 Why? Tropical systems generally aren't associated with much turbulence (see above discussion) Yeah, I guess with downsloping you could get some surface inflow air that has some DCAPE in it or something. You can get turbulence outside and just downwind of towers or in outflow channels..but yeah..it's different than a MCS over the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 You would think. Sometimes airlines will nibble at areas that are sigmetted for convection to "test the waters." I would think the 'danger zone' for commercial aircraft would be within 100 mi radius from the center of the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 I would think the 'danger zone' for commercial aircraft would be within 100 mi radius from the center of the cyclone.Scooter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 13, 2013 Share Posted September 13, 2013 233930 1916N 09513W 8428 01434 9931 +185 +144 255006 007 008 001 03 234000 1917N 09514W 8432 01428 9927 +190 +145 297002 005 005 000 00 234030 1919N 09514W 8440 01423 9930 +189 +146 054008 012 015 004 00 New center pass looks to be roughly 19 deg 17 min N, 095 deg 14 min W, compared to the previous pass of 19 deg 15 min N, 095 deg 16 min W, so for the time being it certainty is moving slowly NE. Extrap pressure is 992.7mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 13, 2013 Author Share Posted September 13, 2013 BULLETINTROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND INGRID STRONGER......HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.2N 95.3WABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICOABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARYMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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