Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Tuesday/Wednesday are the better days for any significant severe potential, though Thursday could feature severe...it just all depends on whether or not we still have really steep mid-level lapse rates around and of course cloud debris.Wednesday looks dry and nasty humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 I started a thread specifically for upstate NY on Tuesday in their sub-forum. Do we want to possibly retitle this thread, since some of New England could get in on the game during the second half of Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Wednesday looks dry and nasty humid Heights fall throughout the day on Wednesday and there may be some sort of s/w that moves through aloft so Wednesday could be active. We definitely do have to watch Thursday though b/c the forcing along the front is very strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Heights fall throughout the day on Wednesday and there may be some sort of s/w that moves through aloft so Wednesday could be active. We definitely do have to watch Thursday though b/c the forcing along the front is very strongThe kinematic support should be a done deal, but I'm worried we lose the impressive mid-level lapse rates. With that said, if we can limit cloud-debris, it could get very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 The kinematic support should be a done deal, but I'm worried we lose th impressive mid-level lapse rates. With that said, if we can limit cloud-debris, it could get very interesting. The core of the EML should be on Tuesday but I agree, we'll definitely have to watch and see how the EML evolves and what happens with those lapse rates. The models do at least keep lapse rates fairly steep through Thursday which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Nice writeup from Wiz on banger potential https://twitter.com/weatherwiz/status/376839357585707008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Nice writeup from Wiz on banger potential https://twitter.com/weatherwiz/status/376839357585707008 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The core of the EML should be on Tuesday but I agree, we'll definitely have to watch and see how the EML evolves and what happens with those lapse rates. The models do at least keep lapse rates fairly steep through Thursday which is good. Lots of instability on Wednesday with very steep lapse rates per 18z model sounding. There's a lot of CIN on Wednesday so it's going to hard to get stuff to fire up here locally unless there's some upstream MCS development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Lots of instability on Wednesday with very steep lapse rates per 18z model sounding. There's a lot of CIN on Wednesday so it's going to hard to get stuff to fire up here locally unless there's some upstream MCS development. Perhaps something similar to May 26, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Lots of instability on Wednesday with very steep lapse rates per 18z model sounding. There's a lot of CIN on Wednesday so it's going to hard to get stuff to fire up here locally unless there's some upstream MCS development. 850-500mb lapse rates actually remain around 6.5C/km for much of SNE on Wednesday, then tickle down to about 6 by 18z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Perhaps something similar to May 26, 2010? The flow for that event appeared to be from the north (front dropping south) as the upper level ridge was centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Here, the flow on Tuesday appears more WSW to ENE. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0526.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The closest analog is 8/7/2007, but that setup was a bit further south and more amplified. FWIW, that brought a line of numerous severe thunderstorm reports from W-E across PA, NJ and NY, including 4 tornadoes. I could see a similar setup, just a few hundred miles further north, if the NAM and to a lesser extent GFS is correct.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/070807_rpts.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0808.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I actually think Tuesday morning could offer a shot of shwrs/tstms as the initial push moves in. There is a LLJ that moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 BOX seems unimpressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 BOX seems unimpressedRightfully so. Best dynamics look to stay north for now. It's kind of silly to get serious about SNE severe 4 days out, especially in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 BOX seems unimpressed It's probably more for NNE regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 It's probably more for NNE regardless. ...Good. They can have it. I will be in Foxborough Thurs. night, and don't need severe threats lingering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 It's probably more for NNE regardless. Tuesday or the entire deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Tuesday or the entire deal? Tuesday is all central/ northern NYS and VT perhaps NH. Tuesday night we could...could have activity down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Tuesday is all central/ northern NYS and VT perhaps NH. Tuesday night we could...could have activity down hereSweet, that's what I had thought. Figures best shot at legit sne severe coincides with the semester starting again.Oh btw I read your blog about the setup, great read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 00z NAM is classic EML on Wednesday. Wow. Problem is there's a fair amount of CIN, little forcing, and not much shear down this way. We'll have to watch if something fires upstream but we have lots of fat CAPE to play with if something fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Should be sitting on 3000-4000 Joules most locations in New England Wed aftn. Just need to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Should be sitting on 3000-4000 Joules most locations in New England Wed aftn. Just need to use it. Yeah it's like tomorrow in WI, there are some jacked-up parameters if they are able to be tapped into, but strong CIN looks to overcome that at least tomorrow and may prevent something more substantial from firing off (at least discrete-wise) on Tuesday/Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Should be sitting on 3000-4000 Joules most locations in New England Wed aftn. Just need to use it. Work on a trigger please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 The setup looks great for NNE, but I don't think BOS or PVD will see too much. Perhaps even ORH/HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1254 AM CDT MON SEP 09 2013VALID 101200Z - 111200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NY AND NWVT......NY/VT/NRN PA...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE EWDACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOWIS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SWRN ONTARIO TO NEAR THE NY-QUEBEC BORDERBY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NY INTONW PA. THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS CORRIDORAND SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR ANDTO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NY AND POSSIBLY IN NRNPA. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTOTHE EARLY EVENING.FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED FOR SYRACUSE NY AND BURLINGTON VT SHOWMLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THISENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IF CELLSCAN REMAIN DISCRETE. SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAILAND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVEHELICITY AROUND 400 M2/S2 SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADOTHREAT. IF THE PREFERRED MODE ENDS UP BEING LINEAR...THEN THE WINDDAMAGE THREAT COULD BE DOMINANT. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THESLIGHT RISK SMALL AND FOCUSED IN NRN NY WHERE THE COMBINATION OFLARGE-SCALE ASCENT...INSTABILITY ARE VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FORECAST TOBE MAXIMIZED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm not sure why everyone got so excited for Tuesday/Wed in SNE..that was never supposed to give us anything. Thursday is and always has been the big day for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm not sure why everyone got so excited for Tuesday/Wed in SNE..that was never supposed to give us anything. Thursday is and always has been the big day for us Well if you would read, we didn't. We kept mentioning NNE. Thursday we lose the EML. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Well if you would read, we didn't. We kept mentioning NNE. Thursday we lose the EML.We weren't talking about you. We are looking forward to Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 We weren't talking about you. We are looking forward to Thursday I know that, but they weren't "many" that got excited. I still think there may be some weakening shwrs/storm moving into western areas like the berks in the morning, and then a small chance for something late Tuesday or Tuesday Night..especially NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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