CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 we may end up in no-man's land out of this whole deal. NNE potentially rocked in the next 24-36 hours...perhaps NYS can pop isolated PM cells on Wednesday...then after that i'm wondering if we are left with a garbage airmass and clouds on thursday. I know..thought crossed my mind. We'll have a pretty strong trough to force things, but I wouldn't be shocked is the atmosphere was junky. What else is new...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I know..thought crossed my mind. We'll have a pretty strong trough to force things, but I wouldn't be shocked is the atmosphere was junky. What else is new...lol. Another heartbreaker for Wwiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Yeah, but just have to watch any upstream cirrus from convection tomorrow. Wednesday could be great up there. Ahh yes, circus could def be an issue. I agree with Phil as well regarding Thursday. The dynamics will be there but we really will have no idea on the thermodynamic environment probably until Tnrsday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Another heartbreaker for Wwiz? I'll honestl be more heart broken if something big happens up north the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Thursday looks like a classic 2013 SNE convective setup...cloud-debris limits destabilization and we have perhaps a few isolated severe reports (mainly marginally damaging winds) followed by a significant cool-down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Wednesday looks capped. Maybe typical cells going in pre frontal stuff over NY and NNE with orographic help too. No real trigger but orographics can help out big time with getting initiation. Once one erupts over a peak, it'll go straight up and should sustain an updraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Ahh yes, circus could def be an issue. I agree with Phil as well regarding Thursday. The dynamics will be there but we really will have no idea on the thermodynamic environment probably until Tnrsday AM clowns, juggling, elephants, what's not to like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 Thursday looks like a classic 2013 SNE convective setup...cloud-debris limits destabilization and we have perhaps a few isolated severe reports (mainly marginally damaging winds) followed by a significant cool-down. Thursday is pretty much shot, just rooting for NNE at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 No real trigger but orographics can help out big time with getting initiation. Once one erupts over a peak, it'll go straight up and should sustain an updraft. Wednesday in your hood looks tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 clowns, juggling, elephants, what's not to like? LOL stupid auto correct an d cracked phone screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 clowns, juggling, elephants, what's not to like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I'm leading in a few hours to head south to CT till Wednesday evening though. Sweet, can we trade places? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Sweet, can we trade places? I'm on I-91 heading south...can see the Tolland massif far out on the horizon, dominating the far sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 18z runs, especially GFS continue to say don't discount Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 It looks like BTV backed down on the Tuesday wording and is more excited now about Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 It looks like BTV backed down on the Tuesday wording and is more excited now about Wednesday. Wednesday could be a very big day up that way. Models not showing a great deal of 0-1km helicity but that could be underdone, especially with channeling flow through the Valley and if winds back in the llvls out ahead of any pre-frontal or with strengthening LLJ. Tornadoes are a distinct possibility and the potential for a strong one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The soundings are so fun to look at when the CAPE gets this fat. CIN remains very strong Wednesday down this way so it's hard to get excited down here. As for Thursday lapse rates become much less favorable so instability is somewhat meh but wind fields strengthen nicely and the 18z runs do show adequate shear for organized severe convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The soundings are so fun to look at when the CAPE gets this fat. CIN remains very strong Wednesday down this way so it's hard to get excited down here. As for Thursday lapse rates become much less favorable so instability is somewhat meh but wind fields strengthen nicely and the 18z runs do show adequate shear for organized severe convection. Pretty nice height falls too on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Pretty nice height falls too on Thursday. No shortage of forcing Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Wednesday could be a very big day up that way. Models not showing a great deal of 0-1km helicity but that could be underdone, especially with channeling flow through the Valley and if winds back in the llvls out ahead of any pre-frontal or with strengthening LLJ. Tornadoes are a distinct possibility and the potential for a strong one Yeah that makes sense. Either way the cameras are ready to go. I will be monitoring the mesoanlysis and meso models quite closely leading up to what eventually emerges on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 No shortage of forcing Thursday. What I like to see though is the NAM/GFS are showing some pretty decent instability on Thursday...not as much as Wednesday obviously with no EML but the NAM still has 1500-2000 J/KG of MLcape here. I'm really wondering if at least here in CT we will have any cloud debris. On Wednesday the action will be well to our north and the upper wind fields should preclude much of that debris from spilling in overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Yeah that makes sense. Either way the cameras are ready to go. I will be monitoring the mesoanlysis and meso models quite closely leading up to what eventually emerges on radar. Could see high end slight probs for day 2 with the new outlook tonight. Good luck on Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Wiz, did you write the BGM AFD today? Just kidding obviously, but: "HAVE YOU SEEN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY THE NAM? IF NOT GO TAKE A LOOK. VERY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 If the backdoor makes it down to BOS metro on Wed or even NE Mass..would that increase chances of big bangs farther west over interior SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 If the backdoor makes it down to BOS metro on Wed or even NE Mass..would that increase chances of big bangs farther west over interior SNE? I doubt BOS backdoors though. It would take a monster complex exiting srn ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 If the backdoor makes it down to BOS metro on Wed or even NE Mass..would that increase chances of big bangs farther west over interior SNE? I doubt anything on Wednesday... we're pretty capped and there's no real forcing around. It's going to take some late morning explosive development in W NY to get us in the game. If we want storms we probably need lapse rates to not go to hell so quickly Thursday morning and wind fields that are a bit stronger than currently progged during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Wiz, did you write the BGM AFD today? Just kidding obviously, but: "HAVE YOU SEEN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY THE NAM? IF NOT GO TAKE A LOOK. VERY IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 I doubt anything on Wednesday... we're pretty capped and there's no real forcing around. It's going to take some late morning explosive development in W NY to get us in the game. If we want storms we probably need lapse rates to not go to hell so quickly Thursday morning and wind fields that are a bit stronger than currently progged during the day. Seems like a lot of if's, and's or but's...Never a good sign when talking about severe in SNE, Add the fact that it's mid September..and that should pretty much throw the last shovelful of dirt on us. Painful to possibly see massive Tor's and wind damage rip across NNE..while it's sunny and 98 down here and cloudless..reading posts from Tip about summery appeals in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Seems like a lot of if's, and's or but's...Never a good sign when talking about severe in SNE, Add the fact that it's mid September..and that should pretty much throw the last shovelful of dirt on us. Painful to possibly see massive Tor's and wind damage rip across NNE..while it's sunny and 98 down here and cloudless..reading posts from Tip about summery appeals in the long range. When it comes to convection, especially when talking about possible severe and high end/outbreak stuff, there are always alot of if, and's, or butt's...not just when it comes to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Seems like a lot of if's, and's or but's...Never a good sign when talking about severe in SNE, Add the fact that it's mid September..and that should pretty much throw the last shovelful of dirt on us. Painful to possibly see massive Tor's and wind damage rip across NNE..while it's sunny and 98 down here and cloudless..reading posts from Tip about summery appeals in the long range. Well no one expected storms here... so really nothing has changed. There's a low chance something pops out west and can maintain itself but no one expects that to happen. Not everyone can get severe storms from every setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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