lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The advisory has been raised to a WARNING for northern Erie for 6-12 inches mainly in the eastern and nearby southtowns. Channel 4's in house model this AM has the band reaching the city for several hours. The warning for southern Erie also had the totals upped for an additional 10-20″. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The advisory has been raised to a WARNING for northern Erie for 6-12 inches mainly in the eastern and nearby southtowns. Channel 4's in house model this AM has the band reaching the city for several hours. The warning for southern Erie also had the totals upped for an additional 10-20″. ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED FOR THE BUFFALO METROAREA LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT... DISORGANIZED...MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND CONSOLIDATE INTO AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STEADIEST...HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS HAMBURG...ORCHARD PARK AND EAST AURORA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM... THEN WILL APPROACH DOWNTOWN BUFFALO FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO PREPARE FOR THIS SCENARIO BEFORE LEAVING FOR THEIR DAYTIME ACTIVITIES. THERE WILL EVEN BE THE CHANCE THAT AIR TRAVEL WILL BE AFFECTED AT THE BUFFALO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH WIND CHILL VALUES CLOSE TO ZERO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Good luck Upstate brothers and sisters! Looks good for those of you that have had a 2 day tease just to your south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like a land breeze induced lake-effect band has formed this morning over Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How many think the Erie band will make it over to Roc? Are the winds strong enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 How many think the Erie band will make it over to Roc? Are the winds strong enough? I don't think this will penetrate far enough to give ROC much, other than some scattered snowshowers....Maybe and inch or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Band is definitely going to make it farther north than yesterday by observing recent radar trends. How intense it will be will be the question. However the NWS seems to indicate it will be just as intense or maybe more than yesterdays in latest special weather statement. ...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND DEVELOPING THIS MORNING...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INTENSIFYTHROUGH THE NOON HOUR. THIS DEVELOPING BAND EXTENDED FROMDUNKIRK...TO BOSTON...TO WALES AT 10 AM...AND WILL SLOWLY LIFTNORTH...INTO THE BUFFALO SOUTH TOWNS. SOME LOCATIONS IMPACTEDINCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SILVER CREEK...EDEN...HAMBURG...EAST AURORA...ORCHARD PARK...MARILLA AND ATTICA.SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR OR MORE WILL BELIKELY...ALONG WITH WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH RESULTINGIN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND VISIBILITIES DOWNTO A FEW HUNDRED FEET AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATEON ROADS QUICKLY RESULTING IN SLICK SPOTS. THIS WILL PRODUCEDANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE THESE AREAS...INCLUDINGALONG INTERSTATE 90 FROM BROCTON TO DERBY.THE STEADIEST...HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSSHAMBURG...ORCHARD PARK AND EAST AURORA BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM...THEN WILL APPROACH DOWNTOWN BUFFALO FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR.SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THESOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS OF BUFFALO BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THISWILL RESULT IN VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS AREADVISED TO PREPARE FOR THIS SCENARIO BEFORE LEAVING FOR THEIRDAYTIME ACTIVITIES. THERE WILL EVEN BE THE CHANCE THAT AIR TRAVELWILL BE AFFECTED AT THE BUFFALO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nice meso-vortex near the eastern shore of Lake Ontario. Classic indicator of land breeze forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Is there a good site that has webcams in the tug hill/east end of LO? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm Click on Montague, Lowville, etc... I don't know if that's the Tug Hill exactly, but they always have insane snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ... Lewis County... 1 NW Constableville 44.0 500 am 12/12 cocorahs Constableville 35.3 333 am 12/12 co-op observer Lowville 16.0 700 am 12/12 co-op observer Beaver Falls 7.5 830 PM 12/11 social media ... Livingston County... 4 WSW Dansville 2.7 700 am 12/12 cocorahs ... Monroe County... 1 NW North Chili 6.1 700 am 12/12 cocorahs Rochester Intl Arpt 4.6 700 am 12/12 ASOS 6 ESE Rochester 4.5 700 am 12/12 cocorahs ... Ontario County... Honeoye 6.0 830 am 12/12 co-op observer Geneva 1.2 800 am 12/12 co-op observer ... Oswego County... Redfield 44.0 630 PM 12/11 social media Bennetts bridge 20.0 700 am 12/12 co-op observer Palermo 5.3 600 am 12/12 co-op observer Minetto 5.0 700 am 12/12 cocorahs 5 ESE Oswego 5.0 700 am 12/12 cocorahs Fulton 3.0 700 am 12/12 co-op observer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm Click on Montague, Lowville, etc... I don't know if that's the Tug Hill exactly, but they always have insane snow there. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Lake Erie band appears ahead of schedule in its northward movement by like 15 miles. But, maybe I'm just giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Lake Erie band appears ahead of schedule in its northward movement by like 15 miles. But, maybe I'm just giddy. lol i hope it doesn't cut off right at hsbc arena like it did back in dec 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 lol i hope it doesn't cut off right at hsbc arena like it did back in dec 2010 I hope that doesn't happen again, either. I got 30+" from that one. Less than a foot plz, being stuck for days sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I hope that doesn't happen again, either. I got 30+" from that one. Less than a foot plz, being stuck for days sucks Well a blob of light to moderate snow is currently over downtown,still main band is around hamburg and slowly shifting northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Getting destroyed here last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 i think the band is trying to reorient itself on a 250 flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 i think the band is trying to reorient itself on a 250 flow? Band is intensifying and organizing itself close to a 250 flow. Added lift is being provided now with the approaching shortwave. This radar shows that nicely. That band is going to be dropping rates from 2-3 inches per hour. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like that band will head into the greater Buffalo area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 i think the band is trying to reorient itself on a 250 flow? Looks like a split band at the moment. My guess would be the area in the middle (lackawana, west seneca, southern cheek) will cash in this evening. Hard to see this getting much further north than the airport, which means I'll be able to just about smell the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Heaviest snow I've seen since Dec 2010 Lake Effect Storm. Over 3 inches per hour atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Heaviest snow I've seen since Dec 2010 Lake Effect Storm. Over 3 inches per hour atm. Looks like a split band at the moment. My guess would be the area in the middle (lackawana, west seneca, southern cheek) will cash in this evening. Hard to see this getting much further north than the airport, which means I'll be able to just about smell the snow... Well the 12z nam had the winds back all the way to 245 so you might still be in play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Heaviest snow I've seen since Dec 2010 Lake Effect Storm. Over 3 inches per hour atm. take a video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Somewhat rare occurance.....L. Erie band feeding a "secondary" L. Ontario band: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't think this will penetrate far enough to give ROC much, other than some scattered snowshowers....Maybe and inch or so... SN- in ROC...we may yet get a couple of inches out of this event. I'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 take a video 7 inches of new snow so far today. Visibility was <.25 miles in this video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 My Forecast next few days.... Calling for 16-30 inches of new snow by Sunday! ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM ESTFRIDAY......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AMEST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAYTO 6 AM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAQUA...SOUTHERN ERIE...WYOMING...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS COUNTY.* TIMING AND HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. AN ACCUMULATING SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...6 TO 12 INCHES TONIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES FRIDAY...1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...2 TO 4 INCHES SATURDAY...AND AROUND 2 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH TONIGHT PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 At least 1"/hour snow here. Thank goodness it's not that windy, visibility isn't that bad. Scary drive home, though. White gold, it's been a while since good fluffy LES fell here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 At least 1"/hour snow here. Thank goodness it's not that windy, visibility isn't that bad. Scary drive home, though. White gold, it's been a while since good fluffy LES fell here. Complete whiteout on route 5,had to be easy 2"+ there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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