TWCCraig Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Dew points are very high again. 89/76 here, up to 73 at ISP. Sea breeze jacked the dews up several degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Lol ok yanks. A few days of near normal and the heat likely to return I don't see any big heat for the next 10 days on either the GFS or the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 80's during the day and 60's at night is going to feel "cool" after this week. The 12z GFS keeps things wet and unsettled from the tropics up the east coast. It's pretty easy to make out where the ridge axis ends up based on QPF placement over the next 2 and 1/2 weeks. It looks convective once we get into the return flow around the Bermuda High later next week again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 It looks convective once we get into the return flow around the Bermuda High later next week again. Pretty much a return to the pattern that we saw to close out June and the first few days of July, which is what you want anyway to get a good east coast tropical threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I don't see any big heat for the next 10 days on either the GFS or the Euro. Lol thats exactly what was said about this week two weeks ago and lots of faces with egg on them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Lol thats exactly what was said about this week two weeks ago and lots of faces with egg on them Yea some times you have to respect the Pattern, The WAR has been the dominant feature so pattern wise chances are it will return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Lol thats exactly what was said about this week two weeks ago and lots of faces with egg on them It was pretty clear that around the 4th of July the WAR was going retrograde west for an extended period of time, and then weaken. By next week we're going to be stuck between the ridging over the plains and the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Yea some times you have to respect the Pattern, The WAR has been the dominant feature so pattern wise chances are it will return Let us hope that it returns around Mid-August and stays through September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 The WAR could very well retrograde back westward after this week, but that point is very much up for debate. CFS V2 keeps the WAR far enough east going forward to only impact coastal New England with above normal temperatures. In fact, it depicts mostly near to slightly below normal temperatures from this weekend through the middle portion of August. Other ensemble guidance supports this point view. It is not uncommon for certain features to remain in place throughout the summer season, but they could vary in placement as well. Keep in mind much of the Mid-west and Southeast is having a cool to very cool July thus far. A slightly further east displaced WAR could put our area in that corridor of normal to cooler temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 95 at the park, not bad. Day 3 of 94F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 The WAR could very well retrograde back westward after this week, but that point is very much up for debate. CFS V2 keeps the WAR far enough east going forward to only impact coastal New England with above normal temperatures. In fact, it depicts mostly near to slightly below normal temperatures from this weekend through the middle portion of August. Other ensemble guidance supports this point view. It is not uncommon for certain features to remain in place throughout the summer season, but they could vary in placement as well. Keep in mind much of the Mid-west and Southeast is having a cool to very cool July thus far. A slightly further east displaced WAR could put our area in that corridor of normal to cooler temperatures. My thinking at this point is that the mean trough shifts into the Lakes/interior Northeast for the July 20th-August 15th period overall. Generally a regime in which heat (90+) will be limited in our neck of the woods, with plenty of normal temp days, even occasionally cooler than average. I believe strongly that the WAR will retrograde west for the late August-September period however, potentially delivering a very warm/humid late summer/early autumn period. ECMWF drives the MJO into phase 2 over the next 7-10 days which will get the ball rolling toward more troughiness in the Lakes/Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 The WAR could very well retrograde back westward after this week, but that point is very much up for debate. CFS V2 keeps the WAR far enough east going forward to only impact coastal New England with above normal temperatures. In fact, it depicts mostly near to slightly below normal temperatures from this weekend through the middle portion of August. Other ensemble guidance supports this point view. It is not uncommon for certain features to remain in place throughout the summer season, but they could vary in placement as well. Keep in mind much of the Mid-west and Southeast is having a cool to very cool July thus far. A slightly further east displaced WAR could put our area in that corridor of normal to cooler temperatures. That was one of my thoughts for August. A setup like that would put us in the danger zone for tropical activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 It's 96F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 That was one of my thoughts for August. A setup like that would put us in the danger zone for tropical activity. Yea with the WAR just to our east we would be in a possible shooting gallery for tropical activity And with water temps as warm as they are it could be quite interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 96 at Central Park,with a north wind. Park getting a spike of temp just ahead of the sea-breeze front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 96 at Central Park,with a north wind. Park getting a spike of temp just ahead of the sea-breeze front. Quite a few clouds here now in Midtown. The seabreeze has made it a fair ways today, even to Newark (SE wind). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 i think it's a thermal trough causing cumulus clouds to stay over ewr. the dewpoint hasn't risen to the low 70s like it has on LI. that's not to say the marine influence won't reach the airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 My thinking at this point is that the mean trough shifts into the Lakes/interior Northeast for the July 20th-August 15th period overall. Generally a regime in which heat (90+) will be limited in our neck of the woods, with plenty of normal temp days, even occasionally cooler than average. I believe strongly that the WAR will retrograde west for the late August-September period however, potentially delivering a very warm/humid late summer/early autumn period. ECMWF drives the MJO into phase 2 over the next 7-10 days which will get the ball rolling toward more troughiness in the Lakes/Northeast. Sounds reasonable for the next week as the weakness in the ridge/any trough should bring temps closer to normal. But I suspect the trough migrates over the Lakes and we warm things up towards the middle/end of next week with a more humid flow. Agree that it's more limited heat (90+) through the 27th. Thereafter there are some clear hints that the WAR builds back west and even a chance it hooks witht the Western ridge. Also seeing some of the blowtorch heat that has been bottled west coming out east as we end July.. I think we remain in an overall above normal pattern through the 27th with some stronge heat beyond there and into the start of August. Of course within the 20 - 27th period we could see some cloudy more wet days that could yield a few degrees below normal. It will be interesting to track. ECM MJO was advertising the same the middle and end of June for July so not sure how well thats working this summer. Top 10 or even 5 hottest July for many looks in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 Sounds reasonable for the next week as the weakness in the ridge/any trough should bring temps closer to normal. But I suspect the trough migrates over the Lakes and we warm things up towards the middle/end of next week with a more humid flow. Agree that it's more limited heat (90+) through the 27th. Thereafter there are some clear hints that the WAR builds back west and even a chance it hooks witht the Western ridge. Also seeing some of the blowtorch heat that has been bottled west coming out east as we end July.. I think we remain in an overall above normal pattern through the 27th with some stronge heat beyond there and into the start of August. Of course within the 20 - 27th period we could see some cloudy more wet days that could yield a few degrees below normal. It will be interesting to track. ECM MJO was advertising the same the middle and end of June for July so not sure how well thats working this summer. Top 10 or even 5 hottest July for many looks in the cards. The combination of the mostly positive NAO and AO with the WAR has been a tough hand to beat since April. Patterns have been really locking in for the duration the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 80's during the day and 60's at night is going to feel "cool" after this week. The 12z GFS keeps things wet and unsettled from the tropics up the east coast. It's pretty easy to make out where the ridge axis ends up based on QPF placement over the next 2 and 1/2 weeks. That wuold imply hung out front like we saw late june/early Jul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Climo report has the Central Park high of 97 at 2:16pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Down to 87 and cloudy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 tomorrow could be the first day with a minimum 80 or higher since 2011... here is a list of days with a minimum of 80 or higher...min/max.......dates...81/90......7/03/187681/90......7/19/187880/95......7/07/188380/94......7/25/188581/91......8/11/189182/98......8/09/189680/94......8/10/189681/96......8/11/189681/95......7/18/190082/100....7/02/190180/96......7/18/190580/95......7/19/190580/92......8/11/190580/87......7/23/190680/94......8/06/190680/90......7/05/190881/95......7/06/190884/93......7/07/190881/93......8/05/190880/87......8/06/190882/94......8/13/190884/93......8/14/190882/100....7/31/191782/98......8/01/191780/96......8/06/191882/104....8/07/191881/94......7/20/193080/98......8/02/193381/100....6/26/195280/95......7/16/195280/101....7/22/195781/95......7/23/197882/102....7/21/198080/96......8/08/198080/95......8/09/198080/95......8/15/198580/94......8/12/198880/99......8/14/198881/97......8/15/198880/100....7/08/199380/102....7/10/199384/102....7/15/199582/102....7/05/199983/101....7/06/199982/103....8/09/200182/95......7/03/200281/96......7/04/200280/95......7/30/200280/98......8/13/200280/99......8/13/200583/97......8/02/200681/103....7/06/201080/100....7/07/201080/97......7/24/201084/104....7/22/201183/100....7/23/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 Bath water south of Long Island. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Bath water south of Long Island. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 The sandy hook buoy (8531680) has a water temperature of 82, we usually peak around mid August to mid September. Hopefully with the warm SST's and a persistent WAR we can have some tropical fun in August/September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 The sandy hook buoy (8531680) has a water temperature of 82, we usually peak around mid August to mid September. Hopefully with the warm SST's and a persistent WAR we can have some tropical fun in August/September.Don't think anyone on the coast wants tropical fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Bath water south of Long Island. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Its there a way to check for record water temps at certain buoys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Don't think anyone on the coast wants tropical funNot to be insensitive (especially since your house was damaged) but I'd absolutely love another hurricane, maybe if what I wished for dictated the elements I'd be more careful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 tomorrow could be the first day with a minimum 80 or higher since 2011... here is a list of days with a minimum of 80 or higher... min/max.......dates... 81/90......7/03/1876 81/90......7/19/1878 80/95......7/07/1883 80/94......7/25/1885 81/91......8/11/1891 82/98......8/09/1896 80/94......8/10/1896 81/96......8/11/1896 81/95......7/18/1900 82/100....7/02/1901 80/96......7/18/1905 80/95......7/19/1905 80/92......8/11/1905 80/87......7/23/1906 80/94......8/06/1906 80/90......7/05/1908 81/95......7/06/1908 84/93......7/07/1908 81/93......8/05/1908 80/87......8/06/1908 82/94......8/13/1908 84/93......8/14/1908 82/100....7/31/1917 82/98......8/01/1917 80/96......8/06/1918 82/104....8/07/1918 81/94......7/20/1930 80/98......8/02/1933 81/100....6/26/1952 80/95......7/16/1952 80/101....7/22/1957 81/95......7/23/1978 82/102....7/21/1980 80/96......8/08/1980 80/95......8/09/1980 80/95......8/15/1985 80/94......8/12/1988 80/99......8/14/1988 81/97......8/15/1988 80/100....7/08/1993 80/102....7/10/1993 84/102....7/15/1995 82/102....7/05/1999 83/101....7/06/1999 82/103....8/09/2001 82/95......7/03/2002 81/96......7/04/2002 80/95......7/30/2002 80/98......8/13/2002 80/99......8/13/2005 83/97......8/02/2006 81/103....7/06/2010 80/100....7/07/2010 80/97......7/24/2010 84/104....7/22/2011 83/100....7/23/2011 Thanks Unc. We came close last June (6/21) low of 79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 Its there a way to check for record water temps at certain buoys Sure. Every July since 2010 we have made to around 80 degrees before falling off slowly later into the season. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_history.php?station=44065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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