Sundog Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 The only thing I hate more than high heat and humidity is high heat and humidity in September. I'd rather have every day in July and August roast than have a way above average September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 The only thing I hate more than high heat and humidity is high heat and humidity in September. I'd rather have every day in July and August roast than have a way above average September. Yeah I hate hot septembers too. Today's another gorgeous day. Doesn't feel anywhere near the mid 80s with the lowering dewpoints and breeze. Looks like 2 more days of this and a couple nice sleeping weather nights before a wet Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 i want forkyfork to hump this euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 29, 2013 Author Share Posted July 29, 2013 The CFS has August as the coolest month of summer relative to the means here so far. It did a very nice job with the July pattern. August Forecast July forecast verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 What are the departures to date? Looks like our high heat is over for the summer thank god. Let the dog days start Between +3.5 and 4(ish). Today looks like it will be in positive territory and then perhaps at normal tomorrow and wed. Should see the month end in the +3 to +4 range. Hotter than 2012 and just a bit off the 10/11 monthly departures.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 The CFS has August as the coolest month of summer relative to the means here so far. It did a very nice job with the July pattern. August Forecast CFSv2.NaT2m.20130729.201308.jpg July forecast JULY.jpg verification MonthTDeptUS.png When was that July forecast issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 When was that July forecast issued? June 25th, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Im really pissed off by the NWS drought monitor having the South Shore of Long Island in a no drought color. We had zilch zero rain yesterday!!!!! In the last 2 months we have had less then 2 inches!!! During maximum solar inclination and the heat of 2 weeks ago that equals extremly low soil moisture. Granted we got dumped on in May but trees here are now dropping leaves... I have seen this before (in the late 90's and again mid 2000's) It has something to due with the seabreeze but the true cause is a combination of things and really some bad luck on days like yesterday... Any of the other South Shore guys feeling this? Reasonably wet back to back months on the North Shore...Mt Sinai / Port Jeff cooperative with 6.38" of rain for July to date & 9.57" during June. As far as the lack of rain on the South Shore...the ocean has a very stabilizing effect on the atmosphere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 today's highs TEB: 87 NYC: 85 EWR: 87 LGA: 89 JFK: 84 ISP: 84 New Brunswick: 87 TTN: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The CFS has August as the coolest month of summer relative to the means here so far. It did a very nice job with the July pattern. August Forecast CFSv2.NaT2m.20130729.201308.jpg July forecast JULY.jpg verification MonthTDeptUS.png And Joe B just tweeted that the Euro shows a top 5 coldest August in the last 30 years for the nation. Only a small area in Texas is above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Interesting, any changes in this forecast with the cooler changes that came in over the weekend? Appreciate it. If anything, the trough is progged even stronger than it was several days ago for the Northeast. Both the ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good consensus on the mean trough axis generally meandering around the Great Lakes/Interior Northeast over the next 7-10 days. The NAO modality switch from positive to slightly negative has caused the West Atlantic Ridge to weaken and extend northward towards Greenland, thereby allowing lower heights southeastward into our area. The troughiness in the Northeast looks to continue for the forseeable future, with most days near or below normal temp wise through mid August. At this juncture, I would be shocked if August finishes warmer than average in NYC. Boston has the best shot at a warmer than normal August if the West Atlantic Ridge can begin retrograding westward in time to pump anomalies. However, I think if that occurs it probably won't happen until after the 20th of August. Latest 6-10 day ECMWF ensembles H5 anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The only thing I hate more than high heat and humidity is high heat and humidity in September. I'd rather have every day in July and August roast than have a way above average September. Unfortunately that former scenario looks possible this year. I would expect the pattern to repeat down the road with a retrogession of the Atlantic ridge by late August into September. There's a chance we continue w/ the mean trough in the Northeast for September, but usually in these regimes, we bring the trough axis back into the Mid-west for September w/ a warm and humid flow up the East Coast. If this occurs it would also mean an increased probability for TC impacts along the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 If anything, the trough is progged even stronger than it was several days ago for the Northeast. Both the ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good consensus on the mean trough axis generally meandering around the Great Lakes/Interior Northeast over the next 7-10 days. The NAO modality switch from positive to slightly negative has caused the West Atlantic Ridge to weaken and extend northward towards Greenland, thereby allowing lower heights southeastward into our area. The troughiness in the Northeast looks to continue for the forseeable future, with most days near or below normal temp wise through mid August. At this juncture, I would be shocked if August finishes warmer than average in NYC. Boston has the best shot at a warmer than normal August if the West Atlantic Ridge can begin retrograding westward in time to pump anomalies. However, I think if that occurs it probably won't happen until after the 20th of August. Latest 6-10 day ECMWF ensembles H5 anomaly Nice to see the 576dm contour clear the area with the vortex situated just to the north. This is definitely a good set-up for below normal temperatures, and particularly dry weather with cool nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles means, have actually been backing off the extent of the trough over the Northeast, in the 8-10 day period. The cool, dry air mass around Aug. 5th is more transient. With a big ULL digging into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. If this is correct, it could turn warmer, humid and unsettled again around the Aug 8th or so.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The GFS, ECMWF and their ensembles means, have actually been backing off the extent of the trough over the Northeast, in the 8-10 day period. The cool, dry air mass around Aug. 5th is more transient. With a big ULL digging into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. If this is correct, it could turn warmer, humid and unsettled again around the Aug 8th or so.: The GFS would be warmer but the ECMWF has heights near 576dm throughout the D7-10 period which is normal to below normal for NYC. Even heights of 582dm as the GFS indicates would not be warmer than normal temps at this time of year, probably mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Nice to see the 576dm contour clear the area with the vortex situated just to the north. This is definitely a good set-up for below normal temperatures, and particularly dry weather with cool nights. Agreed. 58.1F this morning here. Lowest temp for July. The Euro weeklies are fairly widespread with the cool across the Mid-west and Northeast through much of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The GFS would be warmer but the ECMWF has heights near 576dm throughout the D7-10 period which is normal to below normal for NYC. Even heights of 582dm as the GFS indicates would not be warmer than normal temps at this time of year, probably mid 80s. I don't see big heat yet. But I think there's more uncertainly, on how long we are cooler than normal, without some clouds and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Between +3.5 and 4(ish). Today looks like it will be in positive territory and then perhaps at normal tomorrow and wed. Should see the month end in the +3 to +4 range. Hotter than 2012 and just a bit off the 10/11 monthly departures.. Yesterday was a 0.0 Today looks like a -2 or -3 Tomorrow similar. That should leave NYC at about +3.1 to +3.3 for the month of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 30, 2013 Author Share Posted July 30, 2013 The first significant NAO drop since early April will help keep the mean trough position located in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The NAEFS which had earlier been on the warm train for the Northeast have now trended toward the other guidance w/ a normal to below normal temp regime to the coast. I still think its a bit too bullish on the WAR for the New England coast. The ECMWF ensembles certainly led the way with this pattern reversal to troughiness in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 It's beautiful out. 76 degrees with low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I know the long range looks cool but does it also look rainy/stormy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Cooldown NYC: 7/24: 83/68 (-1) 7/25: 68/64 (-11) 7/26: 83/65 (-3) 7/27: 82/70 (-1) 7/28: 73/69 (-6) 7/29: 85/69 (0) 7/30: 7/31: EWR: 7/24: 84/68 (-2) 7/25: 68/62 (-12) 7/26: 85/66 (-2) 7/27: 84/67 (-2) 7/28: 80/69 (-2) 7/29: 87/70 (+2) 7/30: 7/31: LGA: 7/24: 83/69 (-2) 7/25: 70/64 (-11) 7/26: 84/65 (-3) 7/27: 84/71 (0) 7/28: 82/71 (-1) 7/29: 89/71 (+2) 7/30: 7/31: JFK: 7/24: 88/70 (+3) 7/25: 70/63 (-9) 7/26: 84/64 (-2) 7/27: 81/68 (-1) 7/28: 78/68 (-3) 7/29: 84/73 (+2) 7/30: 7/31: New brunswick: 7/24: 83/64 (-2) 7/25: 69/64 (-9) 7/26: 84/65 (0) 7/27: 86/64 (0) 7/28: 84/64 (-1) 7/29: 87/62 (+0) 7/30: 7/31: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Yesterday was a 0.0 Today looks like a -2 or -3 Tomorrow similar. That should leave NYC at about +3.1 to +3.3 for the month of July. The park running abuot 1/2 a degree behind other sites. NYC: +3.4 LGA: +4.2 EWR: +4.0 JFK: +3.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 The NAEFS which had earlier been on the warm train for the Northeast have now trended toward the other guidance w/ a normal to below normal temp regime to the coast. I still think its a bit too bullish on the WAR for the New England coast. The ECMWF ensembles certainly led the way with this pattern reversal to troughiness in the Northeast. Iso, good call with the late July/early august cooldown. I had thought we'd ride closer to normal/above normal similar to yesterday. Certainly the repetition since Jun 20th of the WAR expansion broke last week and the timing between western Atlantic ridging has been prolonged. It will be interesting to see how cool we get through the first 10 days of August. I do think there is continued hinting and trends in the latest guidance that trough backs into the lakes and a more humid/southerly flow develops between 8th and 10th. Whether this actually materializes and how long it persists before we see more of the WAR toward mid/end of the month will determine how August avaerages overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Man the next two weeks are going to be September like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Man the next two weeks are going to be September like! no just normal but feels like September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 Man the next two weeks are going to be September like! I wouldn't go that far unless you mean very early September like Labor Day time. It's probably just going to end up near normal for this time of year, maybe slightly below for a couple days. Either way this feels like a dream compared to 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 I wouldn't go that far unless you mean very early September like Labor Day time. It's probably just going to end up near normal for this time of year, maybe slightly below for a couple days. Either way this feels like a dream compared to 10 days ago. Not to often do we get weather like this, during this time of the year. Lately it has been a torch the last few years. Going to be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 30, 2013 Share Posted July 30, 2013 no just normal but feels like September Average and normal are two different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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