weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Not sure if I buy the late timing, but it's a complex forecast. Either way, I think we can agree the best target is probably somewhere in NY or western Mass. I agree there...this is where we're more likely to see the best combo of instability/shear. What's also interesting is that this is a pretty strong warm front so there will be more buoyancy in the vicinity and I think we'll see winds more backed than what models are showing. We also have to watch and see what our main s/w is b/c depending on the track, that could allow for some better height falls as well as cooling aloft and a method of steepening lapse rates some. Very complex but interesting. More times than none these don't pan out but it oy takes that one time! That's why I love this stuff so much...unless you have that EML setup, you never really fully know what that one time can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 It's very much a nowcast. We've seen plenty of times up here that marginal setups end up being good and seemingly excellent setups bust. Watch for daytime heating and the timing of the frontal system tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I am not sure what the previous version of this product looked like, but the recently disseminated outlook via SPC has a Slight region hashed out that is nosing into SNE. I would think that supercells could take place due to SRH saturation in the vicinity of the warm front as it moves across the area. Their accompanying text hints at it, but my experience with cells that develop just beneath the warm frontal interfaces when you have pooling theta-e need to be watched. Also, having a slight acceleration in the westerly mid-level flow should elevate the concern a little. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR WOULD ALSO SUGGEST WEAKROTATION IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARYTHREAT WITH THESE DIURNALLY ENHANCED CLUSTERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Southern New England, specifically. NMM doesn't bring the line into western Mass. until 7 to 8 p.m. with the ARW around 7 p.m. Takes a few hours to drop down towards I-84 and then I-95. I'm not sure far SNE sees much, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 18z NAM still favors late afternoon/early evening time-frame. Forecast for 8PM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Looking at my phone but as far as instability and shear goes looking very good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 Looking at my phone but as far as instability and shear goes looking very good here I don't think it looks that great, but it gets better as you head north. Max probs of MUCAPE >500 J/kg and 0-6km shear >30kts is only about 15-20% in your neck of the woods. Over 30% into western Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Just looked at 18z NAM bufkit for BDL and lapse rates really aren't but. They aren't EML great, but as modeled lapse rates certainly wouldn't be an issue for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I don't think it looks that great, but it gets better as you head north. Max probs of MUCAPE >500 J/kg and 0-6km shear >30kts is only about 15-20% in your neck of the woods. Over 30% into western Mass. SREF1.png Just going to be a nowcasting situation of where the best instability develops. Also important to note is, it won't be exactly where the best instability develops but where that axis of stronger instability is along with the shear. I could see NW CT/SW MA being a great spot for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 Just going to be a nowcasting situation of where the best instability develops. Also important to note is, it won't be exactly where the best instability develops but where that axis of stronger instability is along with the shear. I could see NW CT/SW MA being a great spot for something. I don't think instability is a big problem. I bet we get some pretty good destabilization. Shear only looks modest at best, but we have had decent severe weather in the past with bulk shear only around 30kt. Helicity values go up significantly as you move northward. Do doubt I bet some storms reach into SW MA and potentially NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 18z GFS pretty impressive! Can't wait for bufkit soundings but hodos look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 All over it @DamagingTimes: Damaging storms tomorrow, followed by damaging heat and high dews to end the week. Be warned. LOL you are a riot. It's all damaging, even synoptic drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Just wow at the GFS...especially with the lapse rates...750-500mb lapse rates just shy of 7 C/KM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Where's Ryan???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Haven't looked at MOS since 6z, but even then I felt it was running too low for highs tomorrow. Assuming we break through, temps should climb well into the 70's, if not 80+ in spots. Fuel for the damaging times ahead.... *edit* just checked and MOS is significantly warmer now. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Not that this means much but I think it was for May 21st the GFS handled the lapse rates much better than the NAM did. NAM was insisting that the mlvl lapse rates would be around 6 C/KM or so but the GFS had 6.5-7 C/KM....and that day they were around 6.5-7 C/KM...and actually closer to 7 C/KM. Just a note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Not that this means much but I think it was for May 21st the GFS handled the lapse rates much better than the NAM did. NAM was insisting that the mlvl lapse rates would be around 6 C/KM or so but the GFS had 6.5-7 C/KM....and that day they were around 6.5-7 C/KM...and actually closer to 7 C/KM. Just a note. A lot of that depends on what happens with convection tonight. I think 6.5 or so will do it, but I do like the W-WNW flow at H5. That's a big plus to have regardless. I think there will be a line pushing in very late day into the Berks, but unsure how it will survive as it heads east.Think it will have some longevity. I do like how the S/W dips into SNE even with small height falls. It may be enough to cause a mesoscale increase in winds aloft and shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Nice TOR east of Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 A lot of that depends on what happens with convection tonight. I think 6.5 or so will do it, but I do like the W-WNW flow at H5. That's a big plus to have regardless. I think there will be a line pushing in very late day into the Berks, but unsure how it will survive as it heads east.Think it will have some longevity. I do like how the S/W dips into SNE even with small height falls. It may be enough to cause a mesoscale increase in winds aloft and shear. What happens with convection tonight certainly will play a role in the lapse rates. With the s/w moving in along with the weak height falls as you mentioned, that could help to rebound them some if they weaken. I do think we should see shear increase as well and we really need to watch the sfc winds especially, if they are backed more S/SE then watch out! The 18z GFS is very, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 If the 18z GFS is right we rock tomorrow. Could be very impressive around Albany and even east to the CT River. I like what I see. The key here is to get the GFS evolution to be right lol Hodographs look good for supercells and even tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 If the 18z GFS is right we rock tomorrow. Could be very impressive around Albany and even east to the CT River. I like what I see. The key here is to get the GFS evolution to be right lol Hodographs look good for supercells and even tornadoes. There you are!!!!! What's been intriguing about this is, the GFS has looked better and better each run and even the 18z NAM went towards the GFS to some degree. 0z runs will be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 There you are!!!!! What's been intriguing about this is, the GFS has looked better and better each run and even the 18z NAM went towards the GFS to some degree. 0z runs will be interesting! I actually find the GFS to be really good around here with severe weather threats. I'll be chasing in a news van tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I actually find the GFS to be really good around here with severe weather threats. I'll be chasing in a news van tomorrow lol I agree...the GFS does seem to do a very good job here with convection and handles the situation extremely well. I'm supposed to work Hershey Track tomorrow night...but I'm going to hope I can get out of working it. It all depends on how much help we have. It will also depend on whether this one person is working that or supervising at the rink...if he is supervising at the rink than I will have to work b/c I'll have to be in charge of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Man w sne is so much more exciting severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I agree...the GFS does seem to do a very good job here with convection and handles the situation extremely well. I'm supposed to work Hershey Track tomorrow night...but I'm going to hope I can get out of working it. It all depends on how much help we have. It will also depend on whether this one person is working that or supervising at the rink...if he is supervising at the rink than I will have to work b/c I'll have to be in charge of an event. heavy heavy tornado watch with Wiz doing heavy heavy work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 If wiz has to work and there is a TOR on a week his friend is down for a chase i will be scratching my head, i thought u said u could get the day off? No such luck or your not sold on potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Tomorrow is going to rock, only because wiz might have to work.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Tomorrow is going to rock, only because wiz might have to work.... If this looks good in the AM you can bet I'm asking my boss if I can not do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Tornado warning for a potentially large and dangerous TOR on ground in S/E michigan. Heads up tommorrow in western sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.