CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Lapse rates are pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Big, big ,big day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Big, big ,big day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Scoots..is it gonna rain this afternoon or not til overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Scoots..is it gonna rain this afternoon or not til overnight? I want to say you'll be dry, but that may be cutting it awfully close. Certainly much better rains chances to your SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I want to say you'll be dry, but that may be cutting it awfully close. Certainly much better rains chances to your SW. Softball at 6:00 in town. the last 4 games have gotten rained out..Tonight looks like it might happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Softball at 6:00 in town. the last 4 games have gotten rained out..Tonight looks like it might happen again I'm gonna say mostly dry with perhaps a brief period of very light rain..but go for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I'm gonna say mostly dry with perhaps a brief period of very light rain..but go for it.Thanks. Hopefully it stays SW. Euro came around a bit for tomorriw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I think lapse rates will be getting worse rather than better as the day continues. I don't like warm fronts... it seems like so much more of a battle. Sure there is plenty of lift but you have warm air surging in, cloud problem... etc. Sunday has such a better story line if it comes to fruition. Cold front, maximized daytime heating, at least marginal shear. Wish we could have an eml or cap to help out and get us a widespread event. With the waa we get high shear/low instability and caa low shear/high instability. Seems to always be one or the other. But as I always think, if there is no modest ML lapse rates, forget it and understand we aren't seeing widespread severe. Actually, quite a few of our biggest events occur with a morning warm frontal passage. They did have EML's though. Also...if you have an open wave low moving through b/c those lead to widespread high helicity fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Actually, quite a few of our biggest events occur with a morning warm frontal passage. They did have EML's though. Also...if you have an open wave low moving through b/c those lead to widespread high helicity fields. WTBY NAM sounding briefly gets helicity a little over 300 m^2/s^2 tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 WTBY NAM sounding briefly gets helicity a little over 300 m^2/s^2 tomorrow morning. Was just looking at the 6z runs and the 12z NAM as well as the 9z SPC SREF and unfortunately things don't really appear to be coming together all that great. Still may see some severe but the question is how widespread will activity be and how severe the potential activity can get. Seems like there will be a quite a disconnect between the greatest shear/instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Was just looking at the 6z runs and the 12z NAM as well as the 9z SPC SREF and unfortunately things don't really appear to be coming together all that great. Still may see some severe but the question is how widespread will activity be and how severe the potential activity can get. Seems like there will be a quite a disconnect between the greatest shear/instability. Yeah I see what you mean. By the time we erode the morning cap the best shear is behind us. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Yeah I see what you mean. By the time we erode the morning cap the best shear is behind us. :/ NW CT/western MA really may be the best spot...also into portions of eastern NY. Just really going to depend on how much sunshine we are able to generate after that morning stuff goes through. The good news is with nearly SW sfc flow perhaps that should help lead to more breaks. One thing to watch for though is sfc winds to hang back S or even slightly SE and that would boost helicity values right back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 GFS is very unstable in western areas. Decent shear too and enough 0-1km shear if winds back for some spinners in low levels. Definitely worth watching. Still a mess of shortwaves at 500mb and the actually trigger for convection may be tough to resolve until we iron out the mesoscale details tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 All over it @DamagingTimes: Damaging storms tomorrow, followed by damaging heat and high dews to end the week. Be warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 6z NAM wasn't too pretty on bufkit. This mid day hodo at BOS was. Shame no instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Lapse rates are ok for our standards, but the GFS is rather interesting for wrn MA and CT later tomorrow. Could be quite a line forming in NY state. Weird S/W timing though with one coming through mid to late morning and then another perhaps tomorrow evening. However, we've had some convective MCVs form which may also screw around with modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Lapse rates are ok for our standards, but the GFS is rather interesting for wrn MA and CT later tomorrow. Could be quite a line forming in NY state. Weird S/W timing though with one coming through mid to late morning and then another perhaps tomorrow evening. However, we've had some convective MCVs form which may also screw around with modeling. It is weird s/w timing and I can't imagine the models have a really good handle on it. Lots of mesoscale details to work out too. We'll see but verbatim the GFS is a decent severe threat tomorrow west of teh CT RIver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Big, big ,big day tomorrow Small, small, small tomorrow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 New outlook for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Sunday continues to look rather interesting just off to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 NMM/ARW show a relatively late arrival time for storms in the area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 All over it @DamagingTimes: Damaging storms tomorrow, followed by damaging heat and high dews to end the week. Be warned. possibly a damaging earthquake, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 What time is that for, Quincy? On mobile so can't see time stamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 What time is that for, Quincy? On mobile so can't see time stamp 0100z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 0100z Thanks. My friend is at work with me and using my laptop and I just checked the WRF and it had a nasty line moving through S VT/S NH/MA around 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 NMM/ARW show a relatively late arrival time for storms in the area: lol ..assuming you're talking about CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 lol ..assuming you're talking about CT. Southern New England, specifically. NMM doesn't bring the line into western Mass. until 7 to 8 p.m. with the ARW around 7 p.m. Takes a few hours to drop down towards I-84 and then I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I could see late timing...but then again, with all the s/w in the picture, they could be throwing off model timing as well with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 I could see late timing...but then again, with all the s/w in the picture, they could be throwing off model timing as well with storms. Not sure if I buy the late timing, but it's a complex forecast. Either way, I think we can agree the best target is probably somewhere in NY or western Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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