snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I don't think this can do anything but bad for us. Why must the sun wake up now of all times of the year. http://www.solen.info/solar/index.html p.s. that is one ugly sun spot staring straight at us this stuff is way beyond my comfort zone, but the sun overall is still reasonably weak? inactive?..look at the 90 day flux....more active years would be over 200...beyond that, I have no comment...but we aren't in a strong/active sun period overall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 this stuff is way beyond my comfort zone, but the sun overall is still reasonably weak...look at the 90 day flux....stronger years would be over 200...beyond that, I have no comment...but we aren't in a strong sun period overall... well, the solar peak flux for this cycle was 153 in 11/2011 but this month is on a pace for 157.9 per the info at the bottom of the page (if I'm reading it correctly) not that I claim to understand it, but it just pisses me off that the d@mn sun decides to wake up now....and there's nobody to sue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 well, the solar peak flux for this cycle was 153 in 11/2011 but this month is on a pace for 157.9 per the info at the bottom of the page (if I'm reading it correctly) not that I claim to understand it, but it just pisses me off that the d@mn sun decides to wake up now....and there's nobody to sue! Lex Luthor found a way to turn the sun red, maybe there's a way to sap it's strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 86-87 was a pretty darn good winter. 3 storms over 12", including 12 and 15" storms only days apart and two solid weeks of snow cover afterwards. Heck yeah, 86-87 was a great winter in my book. Even had 6 or 7 inches fall first week of April that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 CFS has been continuously cold for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 86-87 was a pretty darn good winter. 3 storms over 12", including 12 and 15" storms only days apart and two solid weeks of snow cover afterwards. My data is sketchy for that year. I remember it as a good winter too, but I didn't live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 CFS has been continuously cold for December. it would be nice if the precip part of the CFS2 forecast would be right too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 it would be nice if the precip part of the CFS2 forecast would be right too Great, I'm in the Bullzeye THIS far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Great, I'm in the Bullzeye THIS far out. Prepare for the usual shift north. Sorry 'bout your luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Prepare for the usual shift north. Sorry 'bout your luck You confirmed my greatest fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 My data is sketchy for that year. I remember it as a good winter too, but I didn't live here. It was a really good winter over a two-month period for your area: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lwx 31.1 for DCA, 35.2 for BWI, over 40 for IAD. Big January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 It was a really good winter over a two-month period for your area: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=lwx 31.1 for DCA, 35.2 for BWI, over 40 for IAD. Big January. Jamie, do you recall how you did in the 2/23 event? York may have been in the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Jamie, do you recall how you did in the 2/23 event? York may have been in the bullseye I was in college in Pittsburgh so I got nothing but I remember York got like 10-12, because I remember my brother telling me about it and it bummed me out. I think closer to Philly was the bullseye, like Lancaster County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I was in college in Pittsburgh so I got nothing but I remember York got like 10-12, because I remember my brother telling me about it and it bummed me out. I think closer to Philly was the bullseye, like Lancaster County. yes..I think you're right...Some areas got 18"+ I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJH034 Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 yes..I think you're right...Some areas got 18"+ I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 I was in college in Pittsburgh so I got nothing but I remember York got like 10-12, because I remember my brother telling me about it and it bummed me out. I think closer to Philly was the bullseye, like Lancaster County. You are correct, I was 13 at the time and was surprised how deep it was, Sorry to jump in on the thread, I'm from Lancaster, Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like Topper went normal to slightly below temps and near average snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 October PDO came in at -0.87....currently the PDO region looks absolutely awful which portends the EPO becoming less helpful as time goes on....I think we are seeing the lag of a rising PDO we saw for the last month or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 I had the good fortune to be able to attend a presentation given by a meteorologist from Mount Holly a week or so ago. It was given during the annual Ice Operations Planning Meeting sponsored by the USCG and held at the MEBA Engineering School in Easton, where I work. The presentation was focused on the upcoming winter, given by a meteorologist ( his name escapes me) who is fairly new to the office, but the content was put together by Tony Gigi, one of the long range forecast gurus at Mount Holly and a regular contributor in the Philly subforum. Long story short, he went through all the usual stuff- ENSO, AO, NAO etc. presented on a fairly remedial level given the audience. One thing I found interesting (and seemed counter-intuitive), is that in winters with ENSO neutral conditions, the frequency of significant snow events(>6 inches) in Philadelphia is actually higher with ENSO neutral-negative conditions as compared to ENSO neutral-positive conditions. The prevailing states of the other indices and their possible influences during these winters were not given, but interesting nonetheless. Just wondering if anyone here has looked into those "La Nada" winters that were overall slightly negative(more Nina-ish), or had significant periods of neutral-negative, and if this significant snowfall correlation is similar for Baltimore and DC. Considering the forecast for the balance of this winter is for ENSO neutral conditions to persist, for the snow lovers in the MA I-95 region, should they really be hoping for slightly positve (Nino-ish) conditions, without it being an actual Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Bump... Just sayin'... Probably jinxing myself, though... How's this for a grasping at straws solution: Significantly below normal temp, normal precip (but in the form of multiple 3" snows that stick around for weeks because of temps), with an unusual warm period in early to mid Jan. You heard it here first, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 6, 2014 Share Posted January 6, 2014 Bump again. Because. How's this for a grasping at straws solution: Significantly below normal temp, normal precip (but in the form of multiple 3" snows that stick around for weeks because of temps), with an unusual warm period in early to mid Jan. You heard it here first, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 How's this for a grasping at straws solution: Significantly below normal temp, normal precip (but in the form of multiple 3" snows that stick around for weeks because of temps), with an unusual warm period in early to mid Jan. You heard it here first, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 We just need the significantly below normal temps across the month, multiple 3" snowfalls that stick around for weeks, and an abnormally warm period in early or mid January. Once those materialize, your call will be money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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