Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I feel like they have no idea how much we are going to receive. Im hoping for no rain, i hate ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamcity Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I agree with all of those points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's a shame we have a moisture laden system with a favorable track for our area but it just can't get it's act together. To strung out, or should I say it looks like waves riding up a cold front almost rather than a bombing low. I'd definitly keep any expectations for big snow tempered at this point. If I had to guess I'd say 2-4. We will see what today's model runs yield in terms of nailing down the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 From what I saw from KDKA this am, they said 3-6 which is much more realistic. Not really liking being in Bethel for these borderline events. The warm air always seems to make a stronger push north and west for these types of systems. I think Bethel is much closer to 1-3 inches than 6.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Would a slightly east shift cause colder air to rush in and prevent changeover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Would a slightly east shift cause colder air to rush in and prevent changeover? It could help a little, but verbatim from todays 12z NAM, there is very little precip in the cold sector so there would be less falling from the sky. System is just to strung out to wind up and wrap cold air and precipitation around. Here is hour 39 surface and 850mb temp: Not confident in an all snow solution based on these maps. Of course we aren't even looking at other layers but not sure those would change the overall theme here. Maybe I've been bitten by the WAA tongue one to many times and seen the effects underestimated to be optimistic here, but Id favor a more wet than white outcome. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 It's a shame we have a moisture laden system with a favorable track for our area but it just can't get it's act together. To strung out, or should I say it looks like waves riding up a cold front almost rather than a bombing low. I'd definitly keep any expectations for big snow tempered at this point. If I had to guess I'd say 2-4. We will see what today's model runs yield in terms of nailing down the details. I am still thinking that a general 3-6 inches in areas that stay mostly snow. Maybe 2-4 in the southern counties. Not too shabby for late November. I don't want to get into the hype of hoping for monster storms of 6-12 because we know they are still hard to come by in this region. It only sets you up for a let down and you are disappointed all the time. Perfect timing that it will be gone for Thanksgiving day. Snow and the start of the Christmas season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I am still thinking that a general 3-6 inches in areas that stay mostly snow. Maybe 2-4 in the southern counties. Not too shabby for late November. I don't want to get into the hype of hoping for monster storms of 6-12 because we know they are still hard to come by in this region. It only sets you up for a let down and you are disappointed all the time. Perfect timing that it will be gone for Thanksgiving day. Snow and the start of the Christmas season. This one is going to be tougher than usual to nail down snow totals I think, glad I just do this for fun and not at the NWS! GFS looks a hair colder, and seems to bring the cold air in faster. Seems to have a more consolidated system. You bring up a good point about perspective, a big 6-12 inch storm is rare enough, let alone in November so enjoy what you get. I hope this is a prelude of what is to come this winter with regards to cold air and storms in our vicinity to track. Better to have the player on the field that nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looking at the text output from the GFS, 2-4 seems reasonable. (I used KAGC since its not as far west as KPIT and given the tiny room for error I didn't feel kpit would represent the area of most who post here) Keep in mind I would expect most if not all the snow that falls on the front end to be gone by the time we switch back. You can see we lose the 2 best qpf time frames totalling over a half inch to rain. I don't think it takes much adjustment to alter that to snow. Though I'd wager odds are against it barring a last minute trend eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think we may be in for a surprise. Both the NAM and the GFS are now showing more than 1.0 in QPF for the storm. The Nam has a solid 4 inches and GFS is now at 8.5. If we can hold on to all snow through the duration we could be looking at 6-9. I think it is still reasonable to stay with a general 3-6 with some changeover but don't be surprised if we do not change to rain that the totals go higher tomorrow. Don't forget that there looks to be some good back end snows with this system showing up on the models as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I honestly think 2-4 is too low. I am thinking 4-7 as I think both the front and back end thump will be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Does anyone have any snow maps form 12Z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Does anyone have any snow maps form 12Z models? Check central pa. Euro maps just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Gotta love that semi-snow hole over Motown. Can anyone adequately explain precisely why that happens? Are we at a lower elevation, sort of a valley bowl, as compared to everywhere else in the vicinity? I know the warm tongue always seems to butt up against the ridges to the East of us, I just always wondered why it is so prevalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I honestly think 2-4 is too low. I am thinking 4-7 as I think both the front and back end thump will be impressive. Well if we get a period of rain its going to be hard to measure. I would guess the front end snows would be largely compacted or melted by the time the wrap around snows hit. If you are talking end of the event snow on the ground and take a blend of the GFS and Euro I think we end up on the lower end. Keep in mind there appears to be quite a big difference with someone in Westmoreland County vs Western Allegheny so if that heavier snow were to shift SE 50-75 miles thats going to have a huge impact on totals. If the overall trend over the next 24 hours is towards a slightly colder solution I'll buy into the 4-7 inch totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 My local NWS forecast is currently calling for 1-3 tomorrow and 3-7 tomorrow night. That's with mixing. Being in southern Allegheny, I'm still worried about the warm tongue reaching my area and cutting totals down quite a bit. It has happened many times over the years where I start out as snow here for about a half hour and then the rest of the storm is slop at best, while you guys to the north stay mostly snow much longer. Then maybe it ends as snow here once the cold air finally wins out. Funny how often Allegheny County ends up being the rain/snow/mix line for a lot of these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA329 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-PAZ013>016-020>022-WVZ001-002-260430-/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z//O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0009.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z/TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-HANCOCK-BROOKE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...CARROLLTON...SALEM...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...CLARION...BROOKVILLE...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...WEIRTON...BETHANY329 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM ESTWEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AMTUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES...EXCEPT 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHEASTERN BROOKE...ALLEGHENY...AND ARMSTRONG COUNTIES.* SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. STEADIER SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.* PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TRANSITION...SNOW MAY MIX OR CHANGE TO SLEET OR RAIN FOR A PERIOD LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...BROOKE... ALLEGHENY...AND ARMSTRONG COUNTIES. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT* SNOW ENDING...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END WEDNESDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY ALONG WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE WILL MAKETRAVEL HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. REPORT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION TOTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING...412-262-1988... POSTINGTO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER@NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GREENE-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESBURG...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN329 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHTTO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTERSTORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES.* SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. STEADIERSNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY MORNING.* PERIOD OF TRANSITION...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY TUESDAYAFTERNOON. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHTTUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATEDUNTIL AFTER THE CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ENDING...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END WEDNESDAY.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TOACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZINGRAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING ANDREPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICEBY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOKPAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Just to try and include everyone........ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 329 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013 OHZ059-068-069-PAZ023-029-WVZ003-004-260430- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0006.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0028.131126T1500Z-131127T1800Z/ BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-OHIO-MARSHALL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL... WOODSFIELD...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE 329 PM EST MON NOV 25 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN EASTERN INDIANA COUNTY. * SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. STEADIER SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. * PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TRANSITION...SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN OR SLEET EVERYWHERE FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN EASTERN INDIANA COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. * PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT * SNOW ENDING...WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL END WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW...SLEET AND ICE COVERED ROADS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING AND REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I was to go to Johnstown for a meeting tomorrow and was lucky to change it to a morning conference call tomorrow. I will be working from home tomorrow with the shovel ready in the garage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So why is Agh in a WSWarning if we are only forecasted to receive 3-5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So why is Agh in a WSWarning if we are only forecasted to receive 3-5? THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 9 INCHES...EXCEPT 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOUTHEASTERN BROOKE...ALLEGHENY...AND ARMSTRONG COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So why is Agh in a WSWarning if we are only forecasted to receive 3-5? Southeast party of the county only 3-5. Up towards warrendale 5-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Somewhere up-thread, somebody commented on ground temperatures being cold enough already so that they won't inhibit accumulations. I can vouch for that. I was digging today in bare ground (meaning not covered by grass, or even accumulated snow, which can act as insulation), and it was solidly frozen to a depth of around six inches. As the day wore on, it softened up some, but yes, it is cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So basically we are on the line of moderate and heavier snow? I hope we see no change over and heavier precip brought slightly SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I'm surprised things aren't busier in here-maybe this isn't that impressive...but still-first possible major snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Gotta love that semi-snow hole over Motown. Can anyone adequately explain precisely why that happens? Are we at a lower elevation, sort of a valley bowl, as compared to everywhere else in the vicinity? I know the warm tongue always seems to butt up against the ridges to the East of us, I just always wondered why it is so prevalent. I spent the winters of '83-'87 in good ole Motown. Although we had a few whopper snowstorms while I was out there, I remember fondly, (or not too fondly), feeling that 'donut-hole- effect with a few eastern snow storms. I'm not sure why, but I believe it's simple geography. As you described, being in a 'valley bowl' is probably the right definition. I remember how it seemed Preston County, WV was under a perma-winterstorm warning from December 1st through April 1st. If you sneezed in Morgantown it snowed 8 inches in Preston County. Then again if you wanted a snow fix, it was a 15 minute drive east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I'm surprised things aren't busier in here-maybe this isn't that impressive...but still-first possible major snow..... and the mid-atlantic crew is on page 22 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 We need more posters in this area. I am ready for tomorrow and will be posting observations from the North Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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