nyblizz44 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 No, climo has a lot to do with accumulations as well. The storm can't change the angle of the sun and the length of the day. Im certain you know that heavy wall of snow can drop temps 5-8 degrees within a 2-3 hour span. Once snowing 1-2 inches per hour into a cooled column, if storm positioned correctly and intensity markation is met, your point about sun angle is mute. Check back with me at 2pm Monday if the Nam pulls an upset and we can discuss the facts on the ground..Bottom line, logic dictates we go against Nam GGM camp now but If Euro comes North tonight you will wake up to a winter Storm watch & if it maintains Northern solution at 1p tomorrow a WSW would be issued regardless of sun angle and climo. MANY times it has snowed and accumilated the next day following temps in the 70's. Bear in mind that March, thus far, has been significantly below normal Temps wise and that this is the time of the year when sea temps are at their coldest, So if you want to look at various factors must look at factors for as well as against Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 No, climo has a lot to do with accumulations as well. The storm can't change the angle of the sun and the length of the day. I agree 100 % climo is just as important as any other ingredient in this storm - if this was a few weeks ago we would be talking about larger accumulations for sure - thats why storms over 6 inches are hard to come by this time of year......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I agree 100 % climo is just as important as any other ingredient in this storm - if this was a few weeks ago we would be talking about larger accumulations for sure - thats why storms over 6 inches are hard to come by this time of year.........Dude we all knw its not the norm. Nor is it in nov or april. If the right dynsmics r present u will shovel. Its not gona b becaue of sun angleI thnk cnj is the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Things starting to ramp up in southeast..... Tornado watches in Alabama, heavy rain in n Florida and s Georgia. This storm is going to be a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The morning of the blizzard in 1982 it was in low 40`s in the park at 9 am ( cant find the dam print out ) goin off memory with light rain fallin with a ESE east wind that system didnt crash into a cold air mass . We were able to get to 29 during the day because of the deepening of that system aloft , just like this one is advertised to do . If you are under an inch of liquid with 850`s at minus 5 and the center is East of AC at 984 , you will not be at 40 degrees . Now are we gona be an inch of liquid , thats the question , just not sun angle or time of year . uncle are you around , can you find it ? I can't find my local climate data for that year...It won't be near as cold as 1982 was...1982 got down to 22 on 3/28...That's very cold for this time of year...Just before the April blizzard hit a fresh batch of cold air arrived...the AO was slightly positive that day...it was quite positive before and after the storm...13" where I was in Dingmans Ferry PA...temps fell into the upper teens up there in the afternoon...another snow event came on the 9th...There was 2" in the poconos and 1" at Newark Airport...This is why I don't like 1982 as an analog...we have not been as cold and it won't be in the low 20's during the storm... day...max min precip snow 3/25...59...39.....0.........0 3/26...48...35...0.04".....T 3/27...38...27.....0.........0 3/28...43...22.....0.........0 3/29...56...33.....0.........0 3/30...60...40.....0.........0 3/31...57...47...0.48".....0 4/01...65...46.....0.........0 4/02...58...36.....0.........0 4/03...56...43...1.86".....0 4/04...52...32.....T.........T 4/05...48...27.....0.........0 4/06...41...21...1.11"...9.6" 4/07...30...21.....0.........0 4/08...43...25.....0.........0 4/09...39...34.....T.........T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Im certain you know that heavy wall of snow can drop temps 5-8 degrees within a 2-3 hour span. Once snowing 1-2 inches per hour into a cooled column, if storm positioned correctly and intensity markation is met, your point about sun angle is mute. Check back with me at 2pm Monday if the Nam pulls an upset and we can discuss the facts on the ground..Bottom line, logic dictates we go against Nam GGM camp now but If Euro comes North tonight you will wake up to a winter Storm watch & if it maintains Northern solution at 1p tomorrow a WSW would be issued regardless of sun angle and climo. MANY times it has snowed and accumilated the next day following temps in the 70's. Bear in mind that March, thus far, has been significantly below normal Temps wise and that this is the time of the year when sea temps are at their coldest, So if you want to look at various factors must look at factors for as well as against What NAM upset do you speak of when it already folded like a cheap suit @ 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I can't find my local climate data for that year...It won't be near as cold as 1982 was...1982 got down to 22 on 3/28...That's very cold for this time of year...Just before the April blizzard hit a fresh batch of cold air arrived...the AO was slightly positive that day...it was quite positive before and after the storm...13" where I was in Dingmans Ferry PA...temps fell into the upper teens up there in the afternoon...another snow event came on the 9th...There was 2" in the poconos and 1" at Newark Airport...This is why I don't like 1982 as an analog...we have not been as cold and it won't be in the low 20's during the storm... day...max min precip snow 3/25...59...39.....0.........0 3/26...48...35...0.04".....T 3/27...38...27.....0.........0 3/28...43...22.....0.........0 3/29...56...33.....0.........0 3/30...60...40.....0.........0 3/31...57...47...0.48".....0 4/01...65...46.....0.........0 4/01...58...36.....0.........0 4/03...56...43...1.86".....0 4/04...52...32.....T.........T 4/05...48...27.....0.........0 4/06...41...21...1.11"...9.6" 4/07...30...21.....0.........0 4/08...43...25.....0.........0 4/09...39...34.....T.........T Barring a mega volcanic episode, that probably was the last time NYC will see three record lows in a row. 4/6 21 in 1982 23 in 1881 24 in 1887 4/7 21 in 1982 23 in 1881 24 in 1943 4/8 25 in 1982 26 in 1972 28 in 1920+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What NAM upset do you speak of when it already folded like a cheap suit @ 18z.. Fairly sure the GFS was plenty wetter than the NAM was... haha. Watch the NAM come charging back at 0z tho. Just to fold later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Fairly sure the GFS was plenty wetter than the NAM was... haha. Watch the NAM come charging back at 0z tho. Just to fold later on. Maybe if they feed Abilify or Xanax into the NAM it will stop its roller coaster madness! lol.. But in all seriousness I hope those guys down in SNJ get a nice late winter storm. They have been on the outside looking in the whole season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Models are having trouble with that ULL! We cant blame them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I can't find my local climate data for that year...It won't be near as cold as 1982 was...1982 got down to 22 on 3/28...That's very cold for this time of year...Just before the April blizzard hit a fresh batch of cold air arrived...the AO was slightly positive that day...it was quite positive before and after the storm...13" where I was in Dingmans Ferry PA...temps fell into the upper teens up there in the afternoon...another snow event came on the 9th...There was 2" in the poconos and 1" at Newark Airport...This is why I don't like 1982 as an analog...we have not been as cold and it won't be in the low 20's during the storm... day...max min precip snow 3/25...59...39.....0.........0 3/26...48...35...0.04".....T 3/27...38...27.....0.........0 3/28...43...22.....0.........0 3/29...56...33.....0.........0 3/30...60...40.....0.........0 3/31...57...47...0.48".....0 4/01...65...46.....0.........0 4/01...58...36.....0.........0 4/03...56...43...1.86".....0 4/04...52...32.....T.........T 4/05...48...27.....0.........0 4/06...41...21...1.11"...9.6" 4/07...30...21.....0.........0 4/08...43...25.....0.........0 4/09...39...34.....T.........T you the man , APRIL 6 it started out at 41 after hitting a high of 48 the day before and thats where it started out at 9 am - with light rain in CPK , look at the prior days It didnt crash into an arctic air mass , it was warm before the storm . yes the days that followed were cold , as winds came out of the NW over a ft of snow so it got cold , there no denying that . But the storm ushered in the air mass . If an inch of liquid is dropped over you`re area and 850`s are minus 5 , its not goin to be 40 was my point . Climo or not I happen to think theres a sharp cut off from CNJ south , unless the ULL can escape another 75 to100 miles north over the next 2 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 you the man , APRIL 6 it started out at 41 after hitting a high of 48 the day before and thats where it started out at 9 am - with light rain in CPK , look at the prior days It didnt crash into an arctic air mass , it was warm before the storm . yes the days that followed were cold , as winds came out of the NW over a ft of snow so it got cold , there no denying that . But the storm ushered in the air mass . If an inch of liquid is dropped over you`re area and 850`s are minus 5 , its not goin to be 40 was my point . Climo or not I happen to think theres a sharp cut off from CNJ south , unless the ULL can escape another 75 to100 miles north over the next 2 days . It was definitely below average before the storm with a 48/27 daily. That's more typical of mid-march than the first week of April. Sure the airmass afterward was even more impressive as NYC had -20C 850s which allowed for the sub-freezing high despite the April sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro Ensembles seems slightly more NW @ 48 and more north at 72 (even though it past, its still signaling some issues with the op) - This also means the trajectory is more more NE than just East on the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 you the man , APRIL 6 it started out at 41 after hitting a high of 48 the day before and thats where it started out at 9 am - with light rain in CPK , look at the prior days It didnt crash into a arctic air mass , it was warm before the storm . yes the days that followed were cold , as winds came out of the NW over a ft of snow so it got cold , there no denying that . But the storm ushered in the air mass . If an inch of liquid is dropped over you`re area and 850`s are minus 5 , its not goin to be 40 was my point . Climo or not I happen to think theres a sharp cut off from CNJ south , unless the ULL can escape another 75 to100 miles north over the next 2 days . it was 27 the day before...That's near record cold...It was 41 12am April 6th...temps fell all day...I think it was in the 30's when the precip started...I wasn't in the city...where I was it was all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Things starting to ramp up in southeast..... Tornado watches in Alabama, heavy rain in n Florida and s Georgia. This storm is going to be a monster. What's happening in the Southeast now is not the main system that would effect us. That's still way west over the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 it was 27 the day before...That's near record cold...It was 41 12am April 6th...temps fell all day...I think it was in the 30's when the precip started...I wasn't in the city...where I was it was all snow... It was 27 the morning of the 5th - i think it got to 48 as a high on the 5th . I remember the midday temp on the 6th it was 29 with heavy snow . I really remember it starting out close to 40 that morning as blizzard warnings went up . My point was its about dynamics that will determine if we accumulate monday not sun angle etc . The point is prob lost now anyways , I just think the models tick north with the ULL placement and that will expand the precip field . That was always my argument . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAVGEM still leaning towards the more amplified mesoscale models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 What's happening in the Southeast now is not the main system that would effect us. That's still way west over the Rockies.Yes right about that. Its the warm front waiting to be picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 NAVGEM still leaning towards the more amplified mesoscale models navgem.png Look at where it tucks that low, just east of AC. Assuming it still has the progressive bias this is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Another storm another rollercoaster ride with the models. I would not write off anybody in NYC and NJ but Upstate and Conn may be on the fence with this one as it can still go either way. Watch the Nam jump back North Tonight or tomorrow morning. Euro will be interesting later on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 NAVGEM still leaning towards the more amplified mesoscale models navgem.png Has Nogaps lost its progressive bias since its upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Another storm another rollercoaster ride with the models. I would not write off anybody in NYC and NJ but Upstate and Conn may be on the fence with this one as it can still go either way. Watch the Nam jump back North Tonight or tomorrow morning. Euro will be interesting later on tonight. The NAM could go south again to miss DC just to end up totally wrong if this was 2 runs from now. I'd pay a lot more attention to the RGEM and the rest of the models tonight. I'm still leaning against this pretty strongly for much of our area. Just seems to be bad luck with this storm. And a minor amount of precip, like 0.10" or so and less in 3 hours won't be accumulating snow because of it being late March. We have to be in the meat of the CCB for it to be accumulating and pounding snow. The rest is either rain/slop or white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover20 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Any words on the srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Any words on the srefs? Will know from sv in 5mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Srefs are not good north of CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 About 0.25 to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 About 0.25 to nyc wow major decrease in QpF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro again. The other models are becoming simply obsolete.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Euro again. The other models are becoming simply obsolete.... this storm is going to have a sharp cutoff somewhere, but i dont think it is etched in stone just yet, that is why you are seeing the models vacillate, even the euro to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 aren't srefs just based off of last nam run? which is why last srefs run were still decent...not very concerning by themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.