96blizz Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 this storm is going to have a sharp cutoff somewhere, but i dont think it is etched in stone just yet, that is why you are seeing the models vacillate, even the euro to some extent. The severity of the vacillation on the short term models and pretty much all models besides the Euro is marked and rather embarrassing. I've stopped tracking the way I used to because of it... I still wish luck for all despite the unlikely hope for a shift in our direction after another Euro schooling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 The NAM has some pretty tremendous differences with the handling of the main vort max already at 6 hours compared to the 12 and 18z runs at the same time. Pretty remarkable (and laughable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover20 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hopefully those are some good changes and not bad. We are running out of time fast! The NAM has some pretty tremendous differences with the handling of the main vort max already at 6 hours compared to the 12 and 18z runs at the same time. Pretty remarkable (and laughable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hopefully those are some good changes and not bad. We are running out of time fast! The confluence over the Northeast is a little weaker and the height field slightly farther north, so I guess that could be a good sign. I don't think it will come back west though. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Looks slightly less compressed with the height field over New England through 21 hours. Nothing earth shattering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Man, that last vorticity spoke rotating around the upper level low in New England at 24 hours really screws us. You wanna talk about terrible timing? That's it right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 yeah it looks a lot like 18z to me so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 The height field over New England is adjusted slightly north in relation to the confluent flow. So this might have some room to tick NW. Not sure if it will (NAM gets funky with the precipitation shield very often) but there is some room for that just glancing at the h5 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Confluence looks slightly weaker @30 and heights are a little higher on the coast - Surface looks improved as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 yeah it looks a lot like 18z to me so far its much better than 18z thru 33 vs 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Simulated radar through 36 hours looks pretty darn good. Just what we needed to drag people back in...the NAM looks like it will tick North and West here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Simulated radar through 36 hours looks pretty darn good. Just what we needed to drag people back in...the NAM looks like it will tick North and West here. Sure does, this could be one of those crazy NAM run for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sure does, this could be one of those crazy NAM run for us Doubt it, but it will be an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hugging the coast at hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Tucking into the coast at hr 39 woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Doubt it, but it will be an improvement. Really, you don't think this run will shift north 75 miles from 18z? (that's all we needed) - Wow sim radar is even better now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Simulated radar going wild at hour 39 across all of Central NJ up to New York City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ANDDDDDDDDDDDDD it starts, 0z models start sucking us back in HR39 looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Tremendous hit at 42 hours...surface low is sitting a few feet off the coast of Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hr 42 ownage woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Heavy deformation banding right on top of NJ, NYC at 42 hours...great lift....very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hr 42 Heavy Snow for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 24, 2013 Author Share Posted March 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 HR45 everyone is getting slammed, NJ,NYC,LI Heading NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 ANDDDDDDDDDDDDD it starts, 0z models start sucking us back in HR39 looking good. TBH I was still semi Interested after 18 GFS wasn't too bad along with I believe GEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 WOW - What a shift! (Not getting too worked up yet) - 1.25" up to the city by 51 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 WOW - What a shift! (Not getting to crazy yet) Looks like today's 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm not getting sucked in until either the euro jumps on board or until the storm is underway, we have fallen for this time and time again and i don't feel like getting tricked again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 I'm not getting sucked in until either the euro jumps on board or until the storm is underway, we have fallen for this time and time again and i don't feel like getting tricked again. RGEM and GFS were close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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