Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The surface seems too be torching this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 At hour 27 on 4km nam, ccb just clipping south shore of LI and into eastern parts of central nj. So close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Great run for NJ. NYC also gets it good. This storm is going to have a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 FYI... 2m temps blow for all of us after 12z Really weird with moderate to heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 As ive been saying...scenic event with heavy non-accumulating snow. Completely diff situation were it to fall overnight. Ground is getting full sun today as well. Nearly impossible to get accums on roads tomorrow. I saw a very similar situation in buffalo 2 yrs ago. Forecast was for 4 to 8 in first wk of april. We saw snow all day w no accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Great run for NJ. NYC also gets it good. This storm is going to have a tight gradient. It looks as if sections of N & NW NJ may not a see anything.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Great run for NJ. NYC also gets it good. This storm is going to have a tight gradient. At least being in southern Brooklyn is better this time around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 As ive been saying...scenic event with heavy non-accumulating snow. Completely diff situation were it to fall overnight. Ground is getting full sun today as well. Nearly impossible to get accums on roads tomorrow. I saw a very similar situation in buffalo 2 yrs ago. Forecast was for 4 to 8 in first wk of april. We saw snow all day w no accums That's what happened on the south shore with the March 7-8th event. Snowed all day but no accumulation. I fear the same might happen tomorrow, but we'll have heavier precip this time. With the 7-8th storm, the precip rates were weak on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Interesting thing about this storm is that's coming the day before Passover, I and my wife still remember the storm of 82 when we were 7 and 9 years old walking home from our family Seders in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 What would the timing be on this storm the start an the heaviest snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 What would the timing be on this storm the start an the heaviest snows? starts somewhere between 2 - 5 am - heaviest from about noon - 7 pm - thats the main reason snowfall amounts will only be in the 1 - 3 inch range IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Great run for NJ. NYC also gets it good. This storm is going to have a tight gradient. I'm thinking it's a case where the banding gets up to maybe I-78 and goes no further, and we get some light bursts from what can make it up past there. A lot of times the northern extents of these systems can be overdone-on 3/8, the NAM showed heavy snow making it into the Hudson Valley and NW NJ, while I basically had flurries on the South Shore and people NW of me had little/nothing. I'm just not feeling this one, unless other models make a NW shift today. And we have to have heavy snow to get anything to stick in the middle of the day anyway, and temps will be over 32. My call is that maybe the grass gets an inch or so for most of us but other than that, nothing. Roads/paved stay wet. Real snow makes it to Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hr 33 main CCB just touches the south shore. So close! It's going to be one of those storms where the radar's really tough to watch I think. The CCB probably stays 30 miles south of Long Island and we maybe get some light batches of snow/mix that can make it north a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 It's going to be one of those storms where the radar's really tough to watch I think. The CCB probably stays 30 miles south of Long Island and we maybe get some light batches of snow/mix that can make it north a little more. The meat of the CCB will be offshore, however, we'll still see mostly moderate snow with occasional bursts of heavy snow from bands that move up from the CCB. Your use of "light batches" I don't get. I don't think it will be light at all, only in the beginning. The only problem with this storm is getting it to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Midday in late March for CNJ off the 12z NAM.Wetbulbing to 32F with hvy pcpn: 15z for inland CNJ: 21z still going: Clearly if vv's are strong enough and it snows heavily, surface temps will not be a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 We need the nam to show the bandds overs us, the 4k is showing the band just off shore which is exactly what happend with the inverted trough storm - We have seen 200 mile shifts in the gfs 24 hours out this year so nothing should be off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 The meat of the CCB will be offshore, however, we'll still see mostly moderate snow with occasional bursts of heavy snow from bands that move up from the CCB. Your use of "light batches" I don't get. I don't think it will be light at all, only in the beginning. The only problem with this storm is getting it to accumulate. There's going to be a sharp cutoff on the northern side of this, like most storms dealing with tons of confluence. It likely goes from a good, heavy snow to nothing very quick. On 3/8, we had a time when some decent echos made it into Long Island but not much happened. I could see that happening again. North of here like White Plains or Bridgeport I could honestly see just having a cloudy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 There's going to be a sharp cutoff on the northern side of this, like most storms dealing with tons of confluence. It likely goes from a good, heavy snow to nothing very quick. On 3/8, we had a time when some decent echos made it into Long Island but not much happened. I could see that happening again. North of here like White Plains or Bridgeport I could honestly see just having a cloudy day. True, the 3/8 storm absolutely sucked here. The 20-25dbz bands the radar was showing were weaker and were only like 10-15dbz bands. I would worry if I was on the north shore though, I think the south shore should be ok this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 4km NAM snow map shows 2ft in Delaware, 6" up to northern Monmouth County, 2-4" for NYC, 2" for Central/Western LI, Dusting to 1" for eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 People take surface temps way too seriously . If we get some good precip in here, it will cool the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 4km NAM snow map shows 2ft in Delaware, 6" up to northern Monmouth County, 2-4" for NYC, 2" for Central/Western LI, Dusting to 1" for eastern LI. I'm wondering how it will play in coastal monmouth county, around Long Branch/Eatontown. NAM shows surface temps between 32 and 34, but it is very difficult to get snow to accumulate, even on grass, on the coast with those temps at this time of year. There might end up being both a sharp north/south cutoff (caused by qpf differences) and a sharp coastal/inland cutoff as well (caused by p-type/surface-temp issues). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 As ive been saying...scenic event with heavy non-accumulating snow. Completely diff situation were it to fall overnight. Ground is getting full sun today as well. Nearly impossible to get accums on roads tomorrow. I saw a very similar situation in buffalo 2 yrs ago. Forecast was for 4 to 8 in first wk of april. We saw snow all day w no accums have to say that it can accumulate on the roads this time of year - back on April 7, 2003 the road crews were caught off guard here in central NJ there was a slushy few inches covering even well traveled local roads that day in the early afternoon ............and temps the day before were well into the 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 have to say that it can accumulate on the roads this time of year - back on April 7, 2003 the road crews were caught off guard here in central NJ there was a slushy few inches covering even well traveled local roads that day in the early afternoon ............and temps the day before were well into the 40's There will likely be accums where the snow is coming down hard, I could see places in Monmouth or Ocean County getting 6". Problem is how far north it can extend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sharp gradient on the 12z GFS. 0.5" for NYC through hr 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Sharp gradient on the 12z GFS. 0.5" for NYC through hr 36. what part of NYC Bronx - SI ?? that covers a wide area of real estate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Hey guys. It's pouring frozen precip down at South Central VA. It's nice. Also, it's pretty bizarre to see the Southern Mid-Atlantic to have most of the snow, if the 4KM NAM were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 what part of NYC Bronx - SI ?? that covers a wide area of real estate Staten Island nears 0.75, about 0.5 for Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 12z GFS Total Precip through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 about .75 up to rt 78 and nyc on the gfs and the 1.0 line is lower middlesex and monmouth county south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2013 Share Posted March 24, 2013 Midday in late March for CNJ off the 12z NAM. Wetbulbing to 32F with hvy pcpn: 15z for inland CNJ: With an inch of liquid into CNJ and 50 mph wind gusts I would expect blizzard conditions to develop in thru central Monmouth and ocean counties. There's a 6 hr period of heavy snow and would expect someone in the interior to max out close to 10 inches where the heaviest banding sets up 21z still going: Clearly if vv's are strong enough and it snows heavily, surface temps will not be a concern. ISO I agree with you. Responded to ur post via phone. So it did so mid stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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