earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Carry on with a new thread and hopefully some good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 either a swing and a miss...or a walkoff grand slam. I don't think this will end up being a blend solution. LOL. nice "seasonally adjusted" analogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 LOL. nice "seasonally adjusted" analogy A slam dunk or an airball... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Canadian is handling the lead vort max very similarly to the NAM. I think this is cause for significant pause given the fact that the Euro ensembles were north and west of the OP last night. Could it be that the 12z/23 OP GFS and 00z/23 OP Euro have the correct idea with this vort max handling? Yes. But it definitely isn't the typical situation where we have the NAM/SREF amplified and nothing else even remotely agreeing with it. The lead vort max track is so essential and this owes to the positioning of the upper level low/gyre to the north of New England. The wave spacing in between the two features will determine whether or not the positive feedback is favorable for us and we can get this surface low to tuck north and west before being kicked east by the compressed flow. The Euro and GFS do not have sufficient space for the surface low to tuck underneath Long Island. You can see the NAM and CMC below -- they are extremely similar. I think the CMC may have struggled a bit with the precipitation shield this run...an outcome like it is modeling should eventually yield a less-extreme version of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 When you compare the GFS with the height field you can see why it is farther south and east when compared to the CMC/NAM and SREF members. The upper level low to the north over New England is farther south and compressing the mid level height field. The spacing is so poor and the surface low cannot physically develop to the north and west nearer to the coast. The GFS is definitely an outlier amongst the 12z models so far with the handling of this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Euro looks marginally better aloft compared to the 00z run so far through 48 hours...but nothing really to go crazy about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 A tick west/northwest of the 00z run through 54 hours. Light precipitation up to NYC. Good hit for Philly so far (looks like .25 through 54 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Goes east after that...still looks nothing like the NAM although it definitely ticked that way aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Goes east after that...still looks nothing like the NAM although it definitely ticked that way aloft. It's a horrible run. Less precip then even last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 It's a horrible run. Less precip then even last night. Yeah at 60 hours it really tucked the CCB close to the surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Euro wants nothing to do with tucking that surface low near the coast like the NAM and high res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think the highres will cave tonight. Euro is lock in. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think the highres will cave tonight. Euro is lock in. Oh well Hires models will probably not cave until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 I think the highres will cave tonight. Euro is lock in. Oh well It caved to the HighRes for Mar 8th, well see what happens this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 12z JMA north and stronger...JMA along with GGEM has been most consistent with northely track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Shouldn't the precip shield be a little larger given the strength of this low pressure, bombing into the 980s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Shouldn't the precip shield be a little larger given the strength of this low pressure, bombing into the 980s? Confluence my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2013 Author Share Posted March 23, 2013 Shouldn't the precip shield be a little larger given the strength of this low pressure, bombing into the 980s? No...the wave spacing is awful and theres confluence and dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 seems to me like the GFS/EURO are close with the near-miss/scraper idea at this point, am i correct? I simply put no stock in the NAM after the last storm. The JMA/Canadian are usually too overdone on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 seems to me like the GFS/EURO are close with the near-miss/scraper idea at this point, am i correct? I simply put no stock in the NAM after the last storm. The JMA/Canadian are usually too overdone on precip. The Canadian doesn't have a ton of precip. About .45" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 i'll throw in the SREF's too for good measure in with the NAM/Canadian for being too amped up with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Canadian doesn't have a ton of precip. About .45" for NYC. thanks AG. my mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Please bring warmth to end this constant battle this year. It's time Rossi You will snow Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 It the euro ens show it nw again i would be suspect of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Did the GEFS come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The Euro is right between the NAM and the GFS at 500 mb. It stays closed off longer than the GFS, but not as long as the NAM which captures the surface low. I suppose the euro ensembles could be west, but probably nothing as amped as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 The cluster of the slp on almost all the models showing a 980 mb system east of the delmarva is very impressive. The divergence is in the placement of the ULL thats in question. If one wants to see the heaviest axis set up between 195 in cnj and I80 is a 75 mile jog north of the ULL is where one has to hav the models correct It will gve up the confluence and thats where i thnk the error is. Its not the center has to come north if u move the confluence u grow the precip field. The center prob doesnt come further north. Ur answer is in canada not the atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Did the GEFS come out yet? Yes. They look like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Srefs way s/e. game set match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 23, 2013 Share Posted March 23, 2013 Close to .75 of preciep on new srefs. It did bump se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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